[ad_1]
“There is something to worry about because reading the sequence is now a routine only in mid-February,” Dud said on Delfi Day.
“Of the 96 samples, 85 genomes were scanned, so it must be said that 11 strains of B117 were found out of 85. Statistically, if the selection of the sample was random enough, this could mean that the prevalence of B117 could be around 7-21%. If the samples were taken uniformly from all over Lithuania, ”he said.
However, G. Dudas pointed out that at least 6 samples from Vilkaviškis were examined, so it would not be possible to draw very strong conclusions.
At least in Vilnius, the prevalence of the British variety (B117) should not be high, according to him.
“Together with the Thermo Fisher Scientific and Santara clinics, we conducted approximately 1,000 genome tests in January and December, the largest sample being from Vilnius. As we have not noticed any strain of B117, we can say that at least in Vilnius that prevalence should not be that high, “said the epidemiologist.
It is true that, as the doctor recalled, the first infection with the British strain of coronavirus was transmitted in Vilnius county, but this is not yet the majority of strains.
The epidemiologist said that in some countries, within a month of detecting some cases of the strain, it has spread to more than half of all coronavirus cases: In Denmark, the replacement of varieties with the British variety occurred quite quickly, in a month they went from initial detection to around 60%. all coronavirus infections caused by this strain. “
Pandemic waves are not the rule
Speaking about possible additional scenarios for the spread of the virus, and whether we should expect a third wave, Mr. Dud emphasized that pandemic waves are not the rule.
“The second wave is not a rule, it only reflects changes in our collective behavior with the seasons. We can expect a reduction in virus transmission as we begin to spend more time outdoors as the weather improves, where virus transmission is much more difficult but not impossible. Both a better climate and an increase in vaccination rates can help us, ”he said.
The key that will determine how quickly we can return to life without severe restrictions, according to the epidemiologist, is how quickly the majority of the population will be vaccinated. To do this, G. Doubts emphasized, it is necessary to convince those who are still skeptical about vaccines.
“If we did it fast enough, we could think of Christmas this year,” predicted the epidemiologist.
He considered that the coronavirus would not disappear in the future, but it would be easier for people who were reinfected to contract it.
“It seems to me that we will have exactly the same scenario, when there will be a wave of respiratory infections during each flu season, a part of which will be influenza viruses, another part of other coronaviruses, a part of them – SARS- CoV-2 Yes, people will go to hospitals, but it will not be a pandemic, “said G. Dudas on Delfi’s day.
It is strictly forbidden to use the information published by DELFI on other websites, in the media or elsewhere or to distribute our material in any way without consent, and if consent has been obtained, it is necessary to indicate DELFI as the source.
[ad_2]
