Statistics send alarming signals: Expert suggests not making hasty decisions for at least a week

Vaidotas Zemlys-Balevičius, Euromonitor International data scientist and member of the Prime Minister’s Advisory Council, made up of the Prime Minister, said that although the statistics send alarming signals, it would be worth waiting another week for the morbidity statistics and then deciding what steps to take.

“The data shows that the epidemic used to shrink faster, now it has slowed down. If we look at the county data, then we have four counties in Lithuania, where the epidemic even started to increase last week. Such are the data. They tell us that it is slowing down. Unfortunately, the data is not slowing down as well as we can tell, ”said the interlocutor.

According to the researcher, according to yesterday’s data, the number of diseases began to increase in the counties of Vilnius, Alytus, Marijampolė and Utena.

The reasons are not clear

The reasons why the number of new coronavirus infections began to rise, as claimed by V. Zemlys-Balevičius, are still unclear, it is rather speculation and speculation.

“There are two options. One option that started additional tests is prophylaxis. The good news here would be, because it means that we have started testing more and detecting more. This means that if we catch more, then next week all those catches will simply not generate new ones and we will reduce the epidemic again (…).

The bad option is that I don’t see in the data that there has been a significant increase in testing. The level of testing is similar, perhaps only in Vilnius it was possible to notice an increase in mobile testing for a couple of days. I have not seen this in other municipalities. Another worrying thing is that the proportion of positive investigations has begun to increase, “said the researcher.

That, he said, is a bad sign that the epidemic has returned. This can be related to a variety of things.

“A lot of communication now is about the restrictions being bad, ineffective, and so on. This will probably have an effect. People think they are really ineffective, that they are bad and they don’t follow through (…) Better to take another week to see what’s going on here and then make decisions. Having the data for a couple of days, there is no need to rush “, – assured V. Zemlys-Balevičius.

A member of the Independent Expert Advisory Board did not rule out a reduction in test volumes because a significant number of doctors have already been vaccinated against coronavirus and therefore prophylactic tests are no longer performed. However, he said, the downside is that the volume of testing has decreased not only in the medical field.

“There is a very clear drop in hospital tests, it has dropped significantly. Unfortunately, tests of other activities also decreased. We cannot attribute that drop in tests only to doctors, because all tests absolutely fell (…). Testing can be reduced when the proportion of positive tests is less than 4%, ”he said.

Liberalization of restrictions should not yet enter into force

When asked if the quarantine restrictions released last week could have contributed to the slowdown in the pandemic withdrawal, the researcher was critical.

“The release of restrictions should theoretically not be visible for a week, because it is a week, an incubation period: people come, they get sick and it should be visible after a week, because the incubation period is seven days.” Another thing is that the restrictions are related to the moods of the people, and those riots, that doubt about the usefulness of the restrictions, was expressed earlier. You can guess, I can’t tell from the data that general information has contributed to some extent and people have started to consider those restrictions more freely, ”explained V. Zemlys-Balevičius.

The problem with all restrictions, according to V. Zemlio-Balevičius, is that 10-20 percent is enough. people, and the epidemic returns.

“The information war has its consequences,” said the scientist.

He shared speculation about what changes to the quarantine regime can be expected this week.

“We can waive the requirement that masks be worn outdoors in cities, because now it is possible not to wear masks if there is nothing around you at a distance of 20 meters and not in cities. That can be simplified, ”said the researcher.

According to him, it can be expected that masks will no longer be worn in open areas if a safe distance of two meters can be maintained. This restriction will be discussed in the Cabinet of Ministers.

How to avoid the third wave?

Some Central European countries are already reporting a third wave of the virus. How to avoid it for Lithuania and what mistakes not to make? According to V. Zemlio-Balevičius, the main risk is posed by premature release from the quarantine regime.

“I don’t think there are any impressive mistakes here. This is the same rake we’re climbing on: it is released too early when the level of the epidemic is still quite high. “Let’s look at the countries that are doing well, there is a policy that the correct virus level is zero,” he said.

V. Zemlys-Balevičius presented a positive case from New Zealand, when the country closes under strict quarantine with only a few new cases of coronavirus.

“The strategy chosen in Europe is that we cannot detect these cases, we cannot do it strictly, we tolerate a certain level of virus that is normal. If you take that level too high, for example, as we do now in Lithuania or other European countries, it turns out that you loosen those restrictions and jump back at you to such heights that you have to reintroduce restrictions – you have a third wave.

What worsens the situation than the fall is the British variety, which spreads further and then it turns out that the British variety makes the strategy of maintaining zero cases the only one that can be applied ”, explained the scientist.