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“The main reason for the population decline is probably the unprecedented increase in mortality. About 800 people died at the beginning of the year a year ago, while about 1200 die a week now. These are really big numbers.” He said.
“There is a large increase in mortality in the period since the beginning of the pandemic, in Lithuania it is the largest in the Baltic Sea region.
Unfortunately, most of the deaths are related to causes other than COVID-19, “added Burneika.
According to the demographer, the jump of death coincides with the introduction of quarantine last spring.
“If we count from March last year to the end of January this year, around 9,000 people died in Lithuania. More people than in the same period in 2019. Of these, 3,000. Died of COVID-19, so around of 6 thousand died of other causes. “… In general, the jump in mortality practically coincides with the introduction of quarantine,” he said.
Mr. Burneika also noted that the country had experienced an increase in immigration in January.
“A total of 2.5 thousand people emigrated from Lithuania in January. People, and about 2.8 thousand immigrated. So in January, immigration was higher than emigration. In other words, we see an increase in population as a result of the immigration.
Due to positive migration, Lithuania’s population is growing for the second year in a row. This means that population growth was higher due to migration than to decline due to mortality. In general, in Lithuania we have a negative natural balance: for many years more people have died than were born, ”he said.
Still, the demographer added that immigration no longer compensates for the number of deaths.
“While immigration outpaced the population decline due to natural causes, the number of deaths, the population increased. When mortality has increased so much, immigration no longer compensates for it.” Really sad statistics, “he told Eltai.
According to D. Burneika, the wave of mortality should gradually diminish.
“A very big wave of mortality is going down and down, basically we will jump in and survive that way. But the fact is, quarantine management measures have increased mortality more than the epidemic itself.”
According to him, once the wave of deaths subsides, the population should continue to grow.
“As for the total number of migrations, we will not have a serious problem for some time. Immigration will continue to increase the population of Lithuania, if there are no cardinal changes, all the preconditions for that exist. The fact that now the mortality jump has reduced it is a short-term process ”, he assured.
D. Burneika emphasized that due to deficiencies in the management of the pandemic, the mortality of the population may continue to increase.
“Many COVID-19 pandemic management measures will increase mortality in the future, for example, as unidentified diseases. But the general trend is that in the long term the population of Lithuania will remain more or less stable with a slight increase, ”he said.
According to data from the Department of Statistics, at the beginning of February this year just over 2 million people lived in Lithuania. 792 thousand permanent residents. In one month, they fell by 3,020.
At the beginning of February this year, the permanent population was 1,295 less than at the same time last year.
This is the third month in a row that the monthly decline in the permanent population in Lithuania has been recorded.
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