Not only did A. Navalnas bring the Russians to the streets, but the Belarusian scenario will not necessarily repeat itself.



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The White Counter volunteers who counted the participants at the rallies provided the following data on Saturday: 44 percent participated in the protests for the first time, the average age of the protesters was 31 years.

Only 10 percent were 18 or younger, according to Dozd. Such figures refute accusations made against A. Navaln’s team that it forces children to take to the streets.

It is true that young people were active against the protests on the social network TikTok: they shared videos of a portrait of President Vladimir Putin in schools replaced by a photo of A. Navaln, and a girl taught him to pretend to be American if he was . arrested and taken to a police bus.

The demonstrations took place on Saturday in more than 60 cities in Yakutsk, Siberia, even under the pressure of -50 ° C of cold.

The protesters were beaten with rubber batons and brutally detained, with a total of more than 3,500 arrested. Social media was surrounded by a shocking video of an OMON officer kicking the belly of a 54-year-old woman asking why a boyfriend had been arrested. A woman who was hit on the head with asphalt was hospitalized.

The protesters demanded the release of A. Navalna, chanted that “Putin is a thief” and urged him to resign. There was no lack of allusions to the posters Putin’s Palace is an extremely luxurious mansion, about which A. Navaln’s team released the film last week.

VIDEO: Alexei Navaln’s study of Vladimir Putin’s mansion


Who brought the Russians to the streets?

Navaln acted as a catalyst to ignite the troubles that have been piling up in Russia for some time: do not read with people and the inability to meet their basic social and economic needs, says Laurynas Jonavičius, a professor at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University.

According to the political scientist, with the deterioration of the economic situation, people in Russia cannot take actions that will ensure a better life.

“The regime fears that if people start to take care of themselves and become self-sufficient, it will inevitably have the consequences of Gorbachev’s reforms in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

The regime fears chaos, the country will face enormous challenges and lose its privileges and influence. ” 15 minutes said the political scientist.

According to L. Jonavičius, “Navalnas spills salt on the most painful wounds of Russian society”: “He shows how the elite get involved in corrupt relationships, flit. And the more you flirt, the less you pay attention to society.”

The main message of A.Navalnas is the fight against corruption. Are these platforms enough for millions of people to take to the streets, as they did last Saturday, but millions? L. Jonavičius thinks not, but assures that this platform is “the initial snowball”.

“If everything moves in the same direction as now, that snowball will fall off the mountain and grow. There is great dissatisfaction not only with corruption, but also with the moral disregard for human rights and dignity. It is concentrated in all regions of Russia.

VIDEO: A. Navalnas last words before addressing the interrogation isolator – urging not to be afraid and to go outside


The platform is a magician, but the people who come out to protest don’t necessarily know or love Navalna. However, (his arrest) was a pretext for people to say what they thought, ”said L. Jonavičius.

Repeated Belarusian scenario?

Andrei Kolesnikov, an analyst at the Carnegie Center in Moscow, writes that after the protests, A. Navaln is partially protected from “accidental” murder in prison. The opposition continues on Friday through lawyers “For all evils” transmitted the messagethat his physical and psycho-emotional state is stable, he has no intention of taking his life.

“The protests will continue, the confrontation started earlier than we thought, it was provoked by the officials. All of this may complicate the September parliamentary elections, but avoid the euphoria and “nominate” Navalna as president beforehand.

The regime has significant resources to survive, including the still indifferent majority of the population, ”Kolesnikov writes on Twitter.

The analyst also points out that both parties, the protesters and the regime, are ready for the Belarusian scenario.

According to L. Jonavičius, the spontaneity of the Saturday demonstrations in Russia is somewhat similar to the protest movement that has been going on in Belarus for half a year, they are also mainly organized by the participants themselves.

“The government and the force apparatus reacted quite harshly, as in the case of Belarus. However, these torture, beatings and intimidation by detainees in Russia have yet to take place. Russia has probably learned the lessons from Minsk. On the other hand, officials have made no concessions.

VIDEO: Detainees in Belarus spoke of incomprehensible cruelty: “You could hear people being beaten outside all night.”


The fact that OMON officials share tea, masks, blankets, tries to show that they are with the people, and there are also lessons learned from Minsk. 15 minutes said the political scientist.

L. Jonavičius pointed out that the protests in Russia are not as peaceful as in Belarus.

“OMON officers were covered in snowballs and not just people rejected detained, the tranquility of the urban protests was conditioned, ”he said.

According to the political scientist, it is difficult to predict whether the protests in Russia will turn into a long-term process. However, the element of dissatisfaction is increasing and, with the warming climate and the proximity of the Duma elections scheduled for September, the scale of the protests may increase.

On November 31, Leonid Volkov, a partner of A. Navaln, called on Russians to take to the streets across the country and demand “freedom for A. Navalnas, freedom for all and justice.”

The opposition was poisoned

Last August, on a plane flying from Tomsk to Moscow, A. Navaln felt bad. When the plane crashed in Omsk, the opposition was hospitalized in that city and flown to Berlin a few days later for treatment.

German investigators confirmed that A. Navaln had been poisoned with the nerve paralyzing substance “Novičiok”, the opposition itself fraudulently contacted an FSB official and he disclosed the details of the operation.

VIDEO: A. Navalnas arrested on returning to Moscow: the plane unexpectedly landed at another airport, where the Kremlin critic was waiting for officials.


After five months of treatment in Berlin, A. Navaln returned to Russia on Sunday, where he was immediately arrested, and the following day he was sentenced to 30 days in prison for violating the conditions of probation. He was given a suspended sentence in a fraud case, A. Navalnas says the accusations are politically motivated.



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