Analysis of the pandemic in Lithuania: if some restrictions are lifted, the required result would have to wait another month

According to the report, the improvement trends in Lithuania are maintained in many Lithuanian municipalities, but the situation is still very serious: compared to the situation in the first half of October, when we did not have an uncontrolled growth of the pandemic, the current indicators they are about ten times worse.

Morbidity at 14 days 100 thousand. there are 890 cases in the population, the average daily incidence is 1,400 and the percentage of positive tests is 12.7%.

All these indicators are falling in Lithuania and the acceleration of the pandemic is -28%, that is, both 7 days. the average percentage of both positive cases per week decreased by at least 28 percent. The situation in hospitals has improved slightly and the occupancy rate of treatment and resuscitation beds is 65%, compared to 70% last Monday.

1) Dynamics of cases and investigations – The percentage of positive cases and investigations in Lithuania has decreased, but there are still 20 municipalities in the country where at least one of them is located.

to. We have about 1400 and 14 new cases in 7 days. 100 thousand morbidity rate. the population is 890. This is the level of the first half of November.

second. The number of cases and the percentage of positive cases is decreasing in most municipalities. The increase in cases is observed in smaller municipalities that have outbreaks in social assistance homes, p. Eg Ignalina and Švenčionys districts.

C. The acceleration of the pandemic in Lithuania has been negative for two weeks. In 15 of the country’s municipalities, the acceleration of the pandemic continues to be positive (the number of cases or the percentage of positive cases is increasing), but we also have 14 municipalities where the acceleration is strongly negative and stands at -40 per hundred.

re. For comparison, the graphs show what the 7-day average number of cases in Lithuania would look like with different acceleration values ​​(current is ~ –30% and is marked in red). It is noted that an increase in acceleration from -30 to -20 percent (for example, an increase in mobility or the lifting of certain limits) would mean that we would have to wait another month for up to 200 cases a day.

2) Mobility the country remains practically unchanged. The only indicator that has changed is that work attendance has returned to pre-vacation levels.

3) Total number of patients in hospitals similarly, it has already crossed the peak, the number of occupied treatment and resuscitation beds has started to decline, but even before the level where all planned services were delivered (blue lines), about 90% of the drop is still missing additional.

4) The number of deaths is decreasingBut, as with hospitals, there are ten times more deaths than in October.

5) More than 31 thousand people have already been vaccinated in Lithuania. people. The largest number of vaccinations were administered in the five counties where the organizing hospitals are located.

to. The maximum number of people vaccinated per day was almost 5,000.

second. The Vilnius region is the most active in vaccination: this week, Vilnius County accounts for 50 percent of all vaccinations.

C. In addition, over the past three weeks, pre-vaccination antibody tests have identified more than 4,000 people who have been infected with the virus, thus maintaining that many vaccine doses for people who do not yet have immunity.

Delphi Remember that according to the latest data, the incidence in the country is 747.8 cases per 100,000 population in the last 14 days.

Last day, 476 new cases of COVID-19 were detected in Lithuania, 21 people died, the Department of Statistics reported on Monday.

Last day 3,583 investigations were carried out for suspected coronavirus in the country, a total of 1 million have been carried out since the start of the pandemic. 810 thousand 382.

A total of 167 thousand people registered in Lithuania. 516 COVID – 19 cases, 104 thousand. 188 people recovered, 59 thousand. 683 – tebeserga.

A total of 2,445 people died from coronavirus.

During the last day, 1,041 people were vaccinated against COVID-19 in Lithuania, the total number of vaccinated people is 46 thousand. 923.

Last day in Lithuania, 5 thousand. 428 studies on coronavirus, a total of 1 million have been conducted since the start of the pandemic. 806 thousand 254.