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G. Stankūnavičius’ weather forecast and review indicates that the last time it will be this cold will be in the second half of February 2018 and early March.
He wrote that the promised spears were a bit late.
“This morning’s forecast peaks across a large part of the territory were slightly delayed due to slowly shrinking clouds and short-term snow. Therefore, the minimum air temperature fell below -15 ° C. on the northeast edge of Lithuania alone, over most of the territory it was -8, -13 ° C, and on the coast -4, -7 ° C, “wrote G. Stankūnavičius.
The climatologist said the reason for all the fever warnings was the arrival of Arctic air. And that even shows some reasons.
“One of them is the return path of air particles above the boundary layer. At different altitudes (1-3 km above the surface) they reach the polar Urals, the Kara Sea and the northern part of western Siberia. Another sign is the temperature of 850 hPa (approximately 1.3–1.5 km above sea level), which will drop to –20, –24 ° C tomorrow, when the coldest part of that air mass reaches Lithuania.
This is about 20 ° C below its perennial value. Another property is the layer thickness between the isobaric levels of 500 and 1000 hPa. It will be less than 510 decameters, and these values are unique to the central Arctic regions and northern Siberia. This air mass is also characterized by high dryness: the specific humidity does not exceed 1 g / kg in the lower layer of the atmosphere for several kilometers, ”said the climatologist.
“All these signs show that an extreme minimum air temperature is expected in Lithuania for at least a few days in a row, which can only be corrected by a continuous or rapidly changing cloud cover,” he wrote.
VU climatologist G. Stankūnavičius reported that on the morning of next Saturday and in the first half of the western outskirts of Lithuania, temporary warming, heavy snowfall and short blizzards, and light rainfall are expected elsewhere.
It promises such a climate due to the short life cycle of the mesocyclone that will emerge from the arctic cold front system moving north.
“This small-scale cyclone will continue to move through the central and eastern districts of Poland on Saturday, causing heavy snowfall and blizzards until it finally weakens completely after reaching the Carpathians. Behind the cyclone (and in front) will be a very cold weather, which will cover Lithuania, Belarus and much of the Polish-Ukrainian and Transylvanian region of Romania on Saturday and Sunday. Chunks of frost breaking the mountain ranges will also reach the Balkans: Serbia, Bosnia, Montenegro and Bulgaria ”, He shared his predictions.
Although the coldest part of the air mass will be south of Lithuania on Sunday, the cold will not escape.
“Because a large field of high pressure will prevail over a large area. In such conditions, very cold air forms a thick” film “of dense soil air, which ensures the preservation of cold in the area. The cold lasts until those “films” are destroyed by some intense bar structure or active front, “explained the expert.
As of Monday, the cold is expected to begin to ease towards the south and southeast, but this will be felt first by the northern neighbors of the Baltic (Finland, Estonia and Latvia).
“A little later, the western part of Lithuania, even later, the southeastern part of Lithuania and Belarus,” he promised.
On Sunday and Monday nights, the minimum air temperature will drop to -18, -20 ° C in many places, and -24 ° C or lower when it clears up in some places.
On Tuesday evening, a stronger cold is expected, -13, -18 ° C only in some places.
“As cyclones move through Western Europe towards Scandinavia, the slopes of the bars in the Baltic region will increase, therefore the south-southwest wind will increase and the cold will decrease. From Thursday in the west from Lithuania and from Friday, in the rest of the country, due to the defense of the sea air masses, a thaw is expected. The air temperature during the day will be positive and the daily average air temperature will be approximately 0 ° C, ”said G. Stankūnavičius shared the forecasts.
And in the second part of next week, more significant rainfall is expected: wet snow and rain, in some places lijundra.
“Therefore, this cold period will not last long in Lithuania,” he said.
However, based on long-term forecasts, he promised that the cold will return to the northern part of Europe more than once.
“The annual polar stratospheric vortex generally blocks Arctic air above polar latitudes because it is symmetrical with respect to the North Pole. However, in early January, the center of this vortex shifted over northern Eurasia, so very cold air in the upper troposphere layers now circulates over northern Eurasia and it is much easier to traverse latitudes. socks.
Research shows that the polar vortex gradually returns to its equilibrium conditions, so more arctic cold invasions can be expected this winter, ”promised G. Stankūnavičius, VU climatologist and associate professor in the Department of Hydrology and Climatology.
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