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And while NATO’s plan for the next decade responds to many current challenges, such as the threat from China, the “wise men” have neglected the security of our region, which has not diminished at all since Russia.
A report entitled “NATO 2030: United for a New Era” was released in late November, in which a group of experts shared suggestions on how the Alliance should be discovered over the next decade. To date, NATO has based its operations in 2010 on the framework of the approved strategic concept.
A group of 10 experts commissioned the Secretary General of NATO to analyze the current and future role of the Alliance and make recommendations. The so-called “group of wise men” has submitted up to 138 proposals, which could become a new strategic concept for the alliance.
Discussion “NATO 2030 and the interests of Lithuania”:
Laurynas Kasčiūnas, chairman of the Seimas Defense and National Security Committee and conservative, says the report affirms that there is a strong statement that international relations are returning to geopolitical competition. However, according to him, the competition takes place not only in the army, but also in many other areas, such as energy, technology, information space.
“Today’s threats are not only military, but also, without a doubt, new, transcending the limits and lines of military threats. I am referring to the paradigm of hybrid threats, which is often mentioned to us, ”said L. Kasčiūnas in the discussion held to discuss the NATO 2030 report.
“From a defense perspective, what is not in this 2030 NATO is much more interesting than what is there,” said Saulius Gasiūnas, head of the Euro-Atlantic Cooperation Group at the Ministry of National Defense (MoD).
According to him, NATO 2030 talks a lot, but pays little attention to the main function of the alliance: defense. According to S. Gasiūnas, there are practically no collective defense proposals. However, in the opinion of S. Gasiūnas, this was done in order that the document was not sharpened. NATO 2030’s focus is on the new 21st century. challenges, technological and hybrid threats.
“Where NATO is unique, it is collective defense. So, in essence, that is what we wanted and want to be members of NATO. <...> For us it is important that collective defense, as an essential function of NATO for us, does not suffocate and is not overshadowed by other initiatives of these new initiatives, important as they are, ”said the representative of the Ministry of National Defense.
S. Gasiūnas positively assessed that Russia is mentioned in the document as a competitor and a military threat. According to him, this report is not as important to Lithuania as the need to maintain the importance and deterrence of collective defense in our region.
We stand aside
Linas Kojala, political scientist and director of the Center for Eastern European Studies (RESC), pointed out that our region was somewhat marginalized during the preparation of NATO 2030. However, according to him, nothing surprising, because in the so-called “group of wise men “Our region was represented by the only Polish expert.
According to L. Kojala, the document responds to some of the myths that have prevailed in the public sphere, how many problems NATO has and how it does not solve them.
“Those phrases out loud about the great problems and challenges of the Alliance are often unreasonable and politically motivated, rather than objectively analyzing the situation,” said the head of RESC.
According to Kojala, NATO 2030 also responds to the growing separation between NATO’s military and political pillars and the need to bring them together or at least discover communication channels to make NATO more effective.
According to the political scientist, another emerging problem that is beginning to be understood not only by NATO but also by other international organizations, such as the European Union, is how much attention should be paid to core competencies, mainly collective defense, and how many new challenges must be covered.
“How much NATO needs to deepen what is already the base, and how much it may need to expand, risking, in a sense, that the core receives less attention and development.” This dilemma is probably relevant for Lithuania as well. <...> It is obvious that there is no complete unity in the NATO alliance, “said L. Kojala.
According to him, the report repeats the standard phrase about Russia that deterrence must go with dialogue and does not contain much new content.
“In my opinion, giving more content to the relationship between deterrence and dialogue would be relevant,” Kojala is convinced.
According to him, NATO 2030 lacks more specific recommendations on how to strengthen the deterrence policy towards Russia, and the report’s proposals are abstract and do not respond too much to the security problems of our region.
However, as Mr. Kojala pointed out, NATO 2030 is not a “finished product” that will certainly be implemented, and the link to concrete policy proposals is well defined.
“I think we should have that as an incentive <...>When you need to consider yourself, maybe look at yourself from the side and then offer concrete ideas on how to move forward, ”said L. Kojala.
The decision to respond quickly to crises is especially relevant for Lithuania
Nortautas Statkus, Director of the Science Center of the Lithuanian Military Academy General Jonas Zemaitis, took note of the report and noted that the powers of power of the big states were returning. According to the expert, the authors of NATO 2030 still point to Russia as the main military threat seeking dominance in the post-Soviet space.
“All these formulations correspond to the interests and attitude of Lithuania,” said the expert.
One of the proposals of the authors of NATO 2030 is that decisions in crisis conditions must be made within 24 hours.
“It is very good for us, because when we are at the eastern border of NATO, the so-called time and distance problem is very relevant. We cannot wait months for months when a decision will be made, for example on the deployment of one or another force, ”said N. Statkus.
However, NATO 2030 proposes a dual tactic in its relations with Russia. According to N. Statkus, the authors of the report first propose to strengthen deterrence, but leave room for negotiations.
However, new threats have emerged that are not mentioned in the NATO Strategic Concept adopted a decade ago. First of all, the “wise men” name China. The East Asian giant is named as a systemic rival that no longer hides its global ambitions. As N. Statkus points out, China’s capacity is strengthening in all sectors.
“In the long term, China will be able to project energy globally, including in the Euro-Atlantic area,” said the expert.
According to N. Statkus, the proposal of the “wise men” to prepare a Chinese strategy and speak to the “Asian dragon” with one voice should be welcomed.
“More importantly, it aims to monitor Sino-Russian cooperation, both in the military and in other areas,” Statkus said.
The expert was pleased that NATO 2030 mentions the continuation of the “Open Door Policy”, which is especially relevant for Eastern Partnership countries such as Ukraine and Sacartwell.
The report also highlights the challenges of this century, such as climate change or terrorism, to which NATO must also contribute.
“It is strange that it is proposed to include terrorism in the main tasks of NATO. Sure, that sounds good, but the authors cannot give some examples of what NATO should do in the field of counterterrorism. In fact, it may not be. so surprising, because the fight against terrorism is above all a matter of intelligence, police and finally politicians, and not so much of the military ”, said the expert.
However, N. Statkus stated that if the proposals presented by NATO 2030 were implemented, there would be preconditions to increase the efficiency of the alliance.
Read the full report NATO 2030: United for a new era
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