Lithuanian optimism surprises the whole of Europe: it was completely different during the last crisis

Ž. Mauricas also noted that, completely different from the 2009–2010 crisis, Lithuanian consumer confidence has now declined, perhaps the lowest in the European Union.

Nauseda was worried

In April, the consumer confidence index in Lithuania fell to -16, and in May it rose to -11.

According to a report by the Department of Statistics, in May, the population evaluated the changes in the financial situation of households in the last 12 months a little worse, but looked at the future with a little more optimism.

“In May, compared to April, the proportion of the population that believes that the country’s economic situation will improve increased by 6 percent. Points (from 8% to 14%), the proportion of those who think that the situation will worsen has decreased by 14%. points (from 73 to 59 percent) “- announced the department.

In an interview with Delfi, President Gitanas Nausėda said the decline in consumer confidence in April was cause for concern.

“According to consumer expectations and what we are seeing now, it is halfway to the lowest consumer confidence point in 2010. And it is found that there is a fairly elastic correlation between consumption and consumption expectation.” Yes we have reached the middle of 2010, there are reasons for concern, “he said.

According to the Statistics Department, the indicator reached its lowest level at the end of 2009 and reached -39.

The rebound will continue

Luminor Chief Economist Ž. Maurice said the fixed rebound in the indicator should continue in May.

“The rebound should continue in the near future. The decline is possible only in late summer or autumn, when economic stimulus measures end, not only in Lithuania, but also in other European countries. Then we will see a more realistic picture of the economic crisis We are not having an economic crisis right now, but an economic shock that is being absorbed by very generous government support.

Now the European Commission and the European Central Bank are almost asking for economic stimulus. So far, we don’t see that real picture in the job market, because many people have downtime, other benefits that cannot be paid all the time, “he said.

The interlocutor explained that budget deficits cannot be infinite.

“It just came to our attention then. When it comes to budgeting, questions will arise about whether countries may have budget deficits of this magnitude. However, the rebound should continue in the summer as quarantine measures continue to decline. As As more and more activities are developed, people see that a worse scenario can be avoided, “Ž said. Mauricas

Probably the best in the EU.

Statistics published by Eurostat show that in May the Lithuanian consumer indicator was one of the best in the Community.

The Danes were more optimistic about the future, followed by Swedes, Finns, Czechs and Estonians, followed by Lithuanians.

Ž. Maurice explained that comparisons of consumer confidence across countries are not very possible, but it is possible to see the extent of the decline.

“It was one of the smallest in Lithuania. This is the complete opposite of what we saw in 2009-2010. At that time, the indicator in Lithuania was one of the worst, we were 5-6 from the end, sometimes in the third place in a few months.

The difference is very large and was determined by the fact that the epidemic had not started in Lithuania. It also ended early. It is symbolic that the Baltic states were the first in the EU to open their borders to each other, an open-air restaurant was opened in Vilnius, and so on.

Such initiatives have helped maintain consumer confidence as it currently is. This is very good news for Lithuania, because so far we cannot rely on exports, “said the economist.

Ž. Mauricas added that consumer confidence indicators for Lithuania’s exporting partners are currently worse.

“The recovery in exports will be much more inert. Domestic consumption, at least in the coming months, is our mainstay. I am glad that it has not fallen to the 2010 level,” he said.

According to the Department of Statistics, in May, the changes in the financial situation of households in Lithuania in the last 12 months The population rated it a little worse than in April: although the proportion of the population that said that the financial situation of their Home improvement had not changed (it was 22%), the proportion of those who said it had deteriorated increased by 9%. points (21 to 30%).

In May, as in April, 26 percent. population indicated that in the next 12 months. intends to spend more on purchases like furniture or appliances than in the last 12 months, of which 8%. – much more (5% in April). As in April, 24 percent. the population intended to spend less on such purchases, of which 13%. – Much less (15% in April).

Data were collected from May 1 to 19 by interviewing 761 randomly selected respondents from the Population Registry of the Republic of Lithuania.