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For many years, Merkel has monitored the rule of law in Hungary and Poland without interference. Now they have threatened to ruin the € 1.8 trillion budget and co-financed economic recovery package that would become a central part of the German EU presidency. Furthermore, disagreements with the UK over trade relations after Brexit overshadow preparations for a decisive EU summit on Thursday and increase the risk of a further economic shock.
Merkel’s allies in Europe are already talking about speeding up the recovery fund, albeit without the participation of the two eastern states, in negotiations to curb restrictions on the coronavirus. However, this would drive a wedge in the heart of the EU, raise concerns that more member states might follow in Britain’s footsteps, and end the reintegration of the former communist states, the leitmotif of Merkel’s entire political career.
“We envision our presidency differently,” Merkel told European lawmakers last week. – This presidency has been marked by a pandemic. That is already the case, and the situation must be accepted as it is. ” The rebels in her party say the chancellor should also take some of the blame.
At the concrete chancellery in Berlin, Merkel is jumping between critical meetings about the growing number of Covid-19 cases in Germany and phone calls with EU leaders trying to persuade the chancellor to move on, an official said, requesting anonymity.
His spokesperson Steffen Seibert often makes an official statement after those talks, but communication has waned during the budget crisis, which only shows how sensitive the issue has become. Even when French President Emmanuel Macron hinted that he would speak to the chancellor on Monday, Seibert declined to comment.
To break out of the stalemate, Merkel resorted to an old trick, an informed official said. He tried to think like an opponent to understand his weaknesses and find a way to compromise.
An obvious pressure point is the threat of a shortage of EU funding, but Hungarian leader Viktor Orban and his Polish counterpart Mateusz Morawieck have put even more into the letter, including a national identity and cultural ideology that goes against it. the principles of the EU. It will not be easy for the German leader, famous for his pragmatism, to “crack” this code.
Merkel’s position was further complicated by the fact that she allowed Orban to break the rules for years to no avail: her party, Fidesz, even remained a member of the same European group that Merkel’s Christian Democrats belong to. During 2015 following the refugee crisis that marked the dividing line between Merkel and German voters, Orban refused to accept the proportion of immigrants bound for Hungary, despite being threatened with cuts in EU funding. In the end, he did not suffer any consequences from the refusal.
This time, it is not just the moral authority of the EU that is at stake: it is a fight for an economic and political future. And the chancellor’s generally immobile position began to show signs of strain.
The frustration was evident when Merkel addressed European MPs last week about the outcome of the German presidency. She regretted the lack of progress and complained about the demands made on her, which is not typical of her.
“There are those who tell me: don’t commit yourself, don’t change a single comma. And then the same people tell me: but please come back with the results, “said the 66-year-old foreign minister. “Without comprehensive commitments, we will achieve nothing.”
In Germany, some of her political comrades argue that the chancellor should take at least some responsibility for her problems. In the Christian Social Union (Bavarian Party, close to Merkel’s Christian Democrats), many members say it has misjudged support for the Reconstruction Fund and put Germany in an awkward position, as has happened with its refugee policy. ‘ open ‘.
EU leaders should have known that the link between the budget and democratic standards would provoke a difficult confrontation, says Alexander Dobrindt, leader of the CSU faction in the Bundestag.
Merkel’s most prominent critic is Ralph Brinkhaus, who heads the CSU and Merkel’s Union of Christian Democrats in Germany’s lower house. Brinkhaus used his political capital to try to persuade the party’s conservatives to support the controversial EU common debt plan only to collapse the leaders’ agreement.
When the recovery fund was agreed in July, Merkel also won praise for the controlled level of infections during the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic. In autumn, however, the country was hit much harder and Merkel’s policy of partial quarantine was harshly criticized, but it failed to curb the virus.
This is another sticking point for German conservatives, already tense, trying to pave their way in the post-Merkel era. A soft quarantine costs the German federal government at least 15 billion euros a month: financial support is provided to affected bars, gyms and cinemas.
At a meeting in November, heads of state openly rejected and criticized the foreign ministry’s attempt to impose stricter restrictions, including limiting children’s play to a friend. By proposing measures that have proven too ambitious for EU countries to be acceptable, Merkel is coming out empty-handed, postponing a long-term strategy and seemingly letting Germany apply tighter restrictions.
At last week’s closed-door meeting of CDU leaders, tensions arose over the failure to adopt a unified strategy. Volker Bouffier, prime minister of Hesse, Frankfurt’s financial center, summoned Brinkhaus, who criticized the lack of state funding to offset the effects of the pandemic.
“I want to make it clear: your arrogance is enough for us,” he said as Merkel sat quietly and watched their dispute, according to an official who attended the meeting. Bouffier’s spokesman did not respond to request for comment.
Merkel’s imminent withdrawal from the political arena after the fall elections is also a response to her waning authority. Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Soeder, who is likely to take office, is speaking out on the coronavirus issues.
It has bypassed the stricter rules across the country, introducing a state of emergency in Bavaria starting Wednesday, including a strict curfew in the hardest hit areas.
In a meeting with Merkel last week, which extended the nationwide quarantine until January 10, Soeder criticized the current approach for being too timid.
“The question is whether we can continue to keep the country in such a state of lethargy, or maybe at some point we will have to rethink our actions to take a deeper, clearer and more consistent approach in some areas,” he said.
Merkel shot him a grim look: Her own plans for tougher measures at the national level were thwarted by regional prime ministers in November. They both know very well that she no longer has the power to change anything.
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