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However, any negative attitude towards the Kremlin in Yerevan appears to have diminished when Moscow offered to hold talks on November 10. it eventually brought the fighting to an end and paved the way for the deployment of nearly two thousand Russian “peacekeepers” to the conflict zone.
Political scientist Richard Giragosyan told RFE / RL that many Armenians now see Russia as a “savior” rather than a “scapegoat” to blame for the loss of Armenian territorial forces.
“This is an interesting paradox, since during the 45-day war in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, there was some outrage, resentment and frustration at the passive and reflective behavior of Russia, which is not typical for it,” explains the director of the Yerevan-based Center for Regional Studies. R. Giragosian.
“Russia has not been in a hurry to come to the rescue and has not met or met many of the security expectations of the Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians. The majority of the Armenian people expected a more powerful Russian response,” the political expert said.
“However, Russia has clearly demonstrated its security responsibilities [Armėnijai] it breaks down on the Armenian border itself. Russia is committed to protecting, protecting and assisting the Republic of Armenia, but not Nagorno-Karabakh, “Giragosyan said.
Arman Grigorian, a professor of international relations at Lehigh University in Pennsylvania, says he has also heard of Armenian grievances. The Armenians expressed “frustration that Russia had not done as much during the war as many thought it should have done.”
But it is equally remarkable that representatives of various segments of society claim that if it were not for Russia, the situation of ethnic Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh would have been completely condemned. They claim that in that case, Nagorno-Karabakh would be completely destroyed. , and perhaps even Armenia itself could have been attacked by Azerbaijan, “Grigorian said in an RFE / RL.
“It is impossible to say how these opinions are distributed, because no one conducted public opinion polls on these issues and did not find out the exact distribution of such opinions,” added the professor.
“It just came to our notice then. It must be recognized that if it weren’t for Russia’s efforts, the consequences of the war would probably have been worse for the Armenians,” Grigorian said.
The international relations expert also says that those who blame Russia for the failure of the Armenian fighters in Nagorno-Karabakh “should wonder what other country has rushed to help the Armenians or has done more than Russia to stop the war.”
Except October 26. failed attempt to reach a ceasefire by Washington and a series of “statements of sympathy” from France and the United States, “no [jų] or attempts by any other state to provide military assistance to Armenia or to threaten Azerbaijan with sanctions or other means to end the war, ”Grigorian said.
He “almost begged” Russian help
Experts draw conclusions about the changing dynamics of attitudes towards Russia on the basis of official statements from the Yerevan government and an analysis of the Armenian media.
Mr Giragosyan noted that Armenian Prime Minister Nicholas Pashinian had the fighting started, calling the Kremlin five times “almost in a panic” and “almost begging” for Russian help.
The Armenian government also asked Russia for clarification on what support it could provide during the conflict on the basis of a mutual assistance and cooperation agreement between the two countries.
Now that the war is over and Russian troops are securing a ceasefire, Pashinian is wasting praise in the Kremlin.
On November 21-22, when Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited Yerevan to discuss the implementation of the ceasefire, Pashinian emphasized that Russia is a reliable ally.
Pasinyan said that as the “military and political situation” in the South Caucasus had changed as a result of the war, he was now “sure” that “the friendship, brotherhood and strategic union between Russia and Armenia will be strengthened in the future. next and in the strategic period. “
November 21 Speaking with Mr. Shoig, Mr. Pashinian said: “I would like to emphasize that we have always felt the personal support of the Russian Federation, President Vladimir Putin, the Russian Prime Minister and you during the war.”
“We had a difficult time before the war, but now we face a much more difficult period. We look forward to strengthening existing cooperation with Russia, including military-technical and security cooperation, “said Pashinian.
After speaking with Pashinians in Yerevan, Lavrov said that “the Armenian leadership has approved the direction of developing and deepening common relations with Russia.”
Lavrov also said that he expected trade and economic relations between Moscow and Yerevan “to develop positive dynamics.”
This is a major change in the tone of N. Pasinian. The Armenian prime minister, who came to power in 2018 after a peaceful uprising against pro-Russian predecessors, was initially seen as a Western-oriented leader seeking closer ties with the European Union.
According to Giragosiano, he now believes that Armenia “will always be in the Russian orbit”, this is the consequence of the war.
Armistice and peacemaker
The ceasefire, mediated by Russia, stipulates that all remaining areas of Azerbaijan around Nagorno-Karabakh, occupied by Armenian forces, will remain until December 1. it must be returned to Azerbaijan.
Russian peacekeepers already supervised the first phase of the handover, on November 21. the evacuation of ethnic Armenians from the occupied region of Agdam, east of Nagorno-Karabakh, and the return from that region to Baku.
The handover of the mountainous region of Kelbecker (Armenia-Karwachar), west of Nagorno-Karabakh, to the Azerbaijani forces was scheduled for 25 November.
The territory of Armenia, which is still under Armenian control in the Lachin district, must be returned to Azerbaijan before December 1, with the exception of a five-kilometer-wide transit route that runs through southwestern Azerbaijan, known as the Lachin corridor.
Russian forces also bear responsibility for security along this vital corridor, the only post-war overland highway connecting Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.
In exchange for the promised transfer of territories, Azerbaijan stopped the attack on the largest city of Nagorno-Karabakh. Armenians call it Stepanakert and Azerbaijanis call it Chankendi.
Putin says the final status of Nagorno-Karabakh has yet to be decided. This issue will be discussed in the negotiations organized by the Minsk Group of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. It is chaired by Russia, France and the United States.
“What happens next will ultimately be decided by future leaders and future participants in the process,” Putin told reporters in Moscow last week.
Thomas de Waalis, an expert with Carnegie Europe’s South Caucasus think tank, said Putin’s comments could become an argument in the future to keep Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh after the initial five-year period. in the ceasefire agreement.
„V. Putin can see reasons for reaching a comprehensive peace agreement that restores relations between two important neighbors, Armenia and Azerbaijan, ”Thn said in a recent study published by the Carnegie Europe Center. of Waalis.
“It just came to our attention then. If both sides are in a state of suspended hostilities, this gives the Russian peacekeepers a great excuse to stay. Russia’s agenda is likely to focus more on its own power and routes. trade than in a lasting peace in the South Caucasus, “said the expert.
Th. De Waalis said Putin was “confused” in trying to explain “why Russia decided to support separatists in some sovereignty disputes, such as in Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia or in the Russian-occupied Crimea region of Ukraine. but it did not do so in Nagorno-Karabakh. “
“Their response is largely limited to the fact that Russia has decided to do it in specific places to protect itself”, Th. De Waalis.
Substantial changes
Mr. Giragosyan said that one of the reasons for the fundamental change in the attitude of many Armenians towards Russia was the “sudden deployment of Russian peacekeepers.”
“This has helped the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh to protect and save what remains of their controlled territory after the war and the territorial victories of the Azerbaijanis,” said Giragosyan.
“But the real reason for this belated joy at Russia’s role in the post-war situation is the second factor: Turkey’s direct involvement in the war. In many ways, this has changed the whole dynamic and led many Armenians to stop being angry with Russia and look at it more favorably, ”concludes Giragosyan.
“Realistically, there is a perception that Russia is a savior, if we talk about saving lives, helping not only to protect the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh, but also to protect and safeguard the vital Lachin corridor,” explains the expert. .
“In many ways, the future and security of Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh now depend on less than 2,000 Russian peacekeepers. This generates more excuses to worry about, but the reality today is this,” Giragosyan emphasizes.
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