The euphoria is over, the ruling majority conundrum may be much grimmer

On Wednesday, the ruling coalition candidate for Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė presented the names of the ministerial candidates after a meeting with President Gitanas Nausėda. Of the 13 names provided, 11 are current MPs.

I. Šimonytė herself has also secured a seat in the Seimas, but due to her new duties, she will probably not be able to attend all sessions, as other ministers will. Not only is the possible name of the Minister of Land Protection not provided, but it may also be from members of parliament. Doesn’t the ruling majority lose the majority in the Seimas? Delphi the experts asked.

Most are fragile and the only way out

Vytautas Dumbliauskas, associate professor and political scientist at Mykolas Romeris University (MRU), speaking with Delphi He stressed that the united majority of the ruling parties is truly fragile.

“According to political science theory, this is the minimal majority that causes a lot of problems. If an excessive majority were to assemble, in the case of Lithuania there should be about 85 seats, a majority already secure. (…) There is a great danger here. I think that the governing coalition understands that, not in vain there were setbacks for the Labor Party, I suppose so, ”said V. Dumbliauskas.

The political scientist spoke about the decision of the new president of the Seimas, Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen, to nominate the candidate of the opposition Labor Party for vice-presidents on the first working day of the current legislature.

“Viktor Uspaskich is a pragmatist, values ​​are not important to him. I think the ruling coalition was thinking about that,” said the interlocutor.

According to V. Dumbliauskas, the Labor Party will be the support of the ruling majority.

“I think the mere fact that Andrius Mazuronis was nominated for the first time for vice-presidents seemed really strange to me. (…) V. Uspaskich has a certain interest, of course, it is difficult to get into his head. But he can really support me, I wouldn’t be surprised at all, “he said.

The opposition, according to the political scientist’s calculation, is also forming a considerable number of politicians, who may sometimes even outnumber the ruling majority.

The sum of the representatives of the Lithuanian Green and Peasant Union (LVŽS), the Labor Party, the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (LSDP), the Lithuanian Social Democratic Labor Party (LSDDP) and the Lithuanian Polish Election Campaign – Union of Christian Families ( LLRA-KŠS) in the Seimas exceeds 60.

“It just came to our knowledge then. It is likely that all the votes of the Seimas will come together in one day so that as many ministers as possible can participate in the sessions. Because there will be a problem, it is obvious here,” he noted.

When asked what rulers should do now, political scientist V. Dumbliauskas suggested a specific solution.

“Divide the opposition so that it does not join. There has already been some division of this type, the peasants are very offended and the Social Democrats are not signing cooperation. I would like to continue doing that so that they finally find their face,” he said. Delphi V. Dumbliauskas shared his ideas.

Support searches for individual issues only

Mindaugas Jurkynas, a political scientist and professor at Vytautas Magnus University (VMU), also admitted that political mathematics is not on the side of the rulers.

“I don’t think math is really on the dominant side. Without a doubt, they will need to coordinate their agendas to guarantee a large enough number of Seimas members to guarantee decision-making. This will be a real challenge ”, said the interlocutor.

Jurkynas said he could not yet analyze possible support from the ruling coalition. If it is the Labor Party, it will only become clear after analyzing the important votes in parliament.

“If you support it, it can be said that it is a political force that supports those in power. And we can argue with those votes. Until then, we can only guess, “he said.

M. Jurkynas assured that the rulers do not need to get out of this situation, only in accordance with the agendas and decision-making coordinated by the agendas of all possible ministers.

The political scientist considered that perhaps support should be sought from the opposition faction, but only on individual issues.

“There are no such friends, unless it is about different subjects. If we look at the socially and culturally conservative issues, the peasants could support them, if we talk about some liberal issues, the conservatives will vote freely, then the liberals will seek support among the Social Democrats. There may be support for certain problems in other factions, but it will depend on the problem itself, not on continued support, ”he explained.

Mr. Jurkynas emphasized that Mr. Glaveck’s departure did not yet need to be dramatized. The fact that he left one of the ruling factions does not mean that the coalition’s projects will not be supported by votes. The political scientist said that so far the ruling majority does not see difficulties in their work.

“I don’t think there will be big difficulties now, as there will be in the future, let’s see. There will be drops, anger, anything else. It will be more difficult for the logistics to reconcile the votes. But if they do, they will solve the mathematical puzzle.” Delphi M. Jurkynas said.

Opinions differ on Skvernel’s leadership

On Thursday, the leader of LVŽS, R. Karbauskis, announced his resignation from the mandate of a member of the Seimas. On Facebook, Acting Prime Minister S. Skvernelis expressed his support for his comrade and promised to mobilize the Seimas opposition and take the initiative.

MRU political scientist V. Dumbliauskas doubted that the acting Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis would definitely decide to assume the role of leader of the opposition.

“I doubt that S. Skvernelis will go to this position. You have to work with patience, you have to work, you have to criticize, there is black work here,” he explained his position.

The interlocutor predicted that the opposition will find it difficult to join forces.

“I think the opposition will not unite, which is a situation of gratitude for the rulers. As the opposition is from three parties, they have different objectives. Until now, at least, it looks like this,” he said.

V. Dumbliauskas also saw an opportunity for the rulers to strengthen their majority in the Seimas: to wait for the politicians to flee from the LVŽS.

“If R. Karbauskis really leaves the Seimas, then some peasants will move to the Unión de la Patria. There are such sensible people that they will see the peasant project fail and they will want to remain in politics. Perhaps someone will go to the socdemus, which will go to the left. ”Shared the political scientist.

The first falls in peasant ratings, according to the interlocutor, and will be the first opportunity to escape.

Vytautas University professor Magnus M. Jurkynas looked at the situation in the opposite way: only S. Skvernelis, who is now Prime Minister, could form an opposition.

“The current prime minister has experience, after the beginning of December, when the interim government stops working, he himself is a member of parliament. And knowing that R. Karbauskis is retiring from the Seimas, it seems that a politician of such caliber and weight as the current Prime Minister is a very serious application, even the most serious, to become the leader of the faction in the future and then meet , talk to the opposition. He taught.

According to M. Jurkynas, S. Skvernelis topped the LVŽS list in the elections, so he could really lead the faction as well. The political scientist did not predict the disintegration of the peasant faction after the departure of R. Karbauskis.

“I do not believe that Mr. Skvernel will be the leader who will continue to lead the group. Secondly, R. Karbauskis continues to be the president of the political party, he maintains the role of leader through this position. I do not think he will walk away and believe the conditions for the peasants to fall asleep, especially because in the opposition they are against a serious opposition. ” Delphi M. Jurkynas said.