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Both when considering how much the Lithuanian economy will decline and when predicting when it will once again resist from below, all eyes are on exporters. Exports, which have become the locomotive of the Lithuanian economy, make up even 83 percent. of GDP, so the success of Lithuanian companies selling goods and services abroad depends largely on how we will all live in the near future.
Versli Lietuva forecasts that the export of Lithuanian goods may decrease by 17-22 percent this year, and services by 25-27 percent.
“In that case, we would go back to 2016-2017 and lose three years of work. In other words, the recovery to reach the 2019 level can be expected in mid-2022,” says Vadimas Ivanovas, Head of Research and Analysis at Versli Lietuva.
expert 15 minutes He said that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on exports in the first quarter of this year has yet to be revealed. According to the Statistics Department, after the elimination of petroleum products, exports of goods of Lithuanian origin grew 2.6 percent. However, according to V.Ivanov, this positive statistic is largely due to seasonal grain exports, which have been markedly outnumbered by the number of exports.
“Even after eliminating the impact of cereals and petroleum products, exports grew 1% in the first quarter: 6.6% in January and 0.5% in February, but in March there were already signs of a pandemic: exports fell 4% “. The results were reviewed by V. Ivanov.
Photo by Versli Lietuva / Management Ivanovas
April and May data will reveal real trends in the direction of our exports. These statistics will have to wait, therefore, how they were affected by the pandemic and what trends are currently observed in foreign markets. 15 minutes 10 Lithuanian companies among the largest Lithuanian exporters asked.
Due to declining volumes in the food industry and the first signs of recovery in the furniture manufacturing sector, the main Lithuanian exporters are currently in very different moods.
Since the decrease in volumes in the food industry, the first signs of recovery in the furniture manufacturing sector for companies in the chemical industry that have not yet been affected by the crisis: the largest Lithuanian exporters currently live in states of very different mood.
The closure of restaurants cut through the food industry.
Hotels, restaurants and closed cafes have crossed not only the tourism sector, but also the Lithuanian food industry. Although it seems that during the crisis food producers should feel safe, because people do not stop eating, a large amount of Lithuanian food products traveled to foreign cafes, restaurants, bars or hotels, which were closed during the quarantine in many European countries .
Scanpix / SIPA photo / Quarantine restaurant in Prague
Today, restaurants, cafes, and hotels are gradually reopening in several countries, but 15 minutes Lithuanian food exporters say they have not yet felt the recovery.
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