The thin line between triumph and tragedy: a Lithuanian end-stage in the League of Nations: almost a hundred | sports

15 minutes He calculated that before the last two rounds of Lithuanian finishing scenarios in the fourth group of Division C of the Nations League there are as many as 83.

The Lithuanian national team, which scored 5 points from four matches, ranks second in the group, but receives a maximum of 2 points from its competitors – the national teams of Belarus, Albania and Kazakhstan.

The Lithuanian team, which will play in Minsk tonight and Almaty on Wednesday, have practically identical chances to win any of the four spots in the group.

15 minutes explains in which cases the Lithuanian national team would be the first in the group and in which cases, the last.

Paths to the name of the group winners

After debuting in the Nations League in 2018. The Lithuanian team did not score a point in six games, the scenario in which the Lithuanians won the Division C group and moved up to Division B seemed surreal. However, it is now possible to speak about it loud enough.

Before the last two rounds, the Lithuanian team is 22.2 percent. the probability of finishing in the group first. Only the current leader of the group and their current Lithuanian rival Belarus have better chances: 54.3 percent.

However, the situation would change due to the favorable outcome of the Lithuanian team’s match in Minsk.

If V. Urbon’s team succeeded in defeating the Belarusians, they would not only surpass them in the rankings, but also gain a mutual advantage if the teams scored equal points after the last round.

The victory in the capital of Belarus would increase the chances of the Lithuanians winning the group twice: they would rise to 48.1 percent. In this case, only a draw would be enough for the Lithuanian team in the last round against Kazakhstan, and the victory in Almaty would guarantee V. Urbon’s team first place and a ticket to division B.

The Lithuanian team would maintain their theoretical hopes of winning the group in a draw in Minsk, but in that case their fate would already depend not only on themselves, but also on the outcome of Wednesday’s Albanian-Belarusian match.

If the Lithuanians bring in a point from Minsk, their chances of winning the group would drop to 14.8 percent.

In this case, it would be necessary for the Lithuanians to win in Kazakhstan, and in the Albanian-Belarusian match in Tirana, the fans of the Lithuanian team would have to support their hosts.

However, the latter have not yet given up their ambitions to clinch the top spot in the group, so the result of tonight’s match between Albanians and Kazakhs will be highly relevant for the Lithuanians. If Albania wins against both the Kazakhs and the Belarusians, every point wasted by the Lithuanian team would open the way for the Albanians to rise to the top of the group.

Well, if the Lithuanian team suffered its first failure tonight after five successful consecutive matches, it would be necessary to say goodbye to the triumph in the group, in which case we should not think about promotion to Division B, but about relegation to Division D more low.

How not to fall?

In addition to the probability of ranking first in the group, the chances of Lithuania remaining last before the final two rounds are identical: 22.2 percent.

Lithuania’s national team in Division C would certainly be saved with at least one victory: after accumulating at least 8 points, V. Urbonas’s students would not really fall below third place in the group.

If no victories could be won, the Lithuanians would likely be saved by the scenario of two draws in Minsk and Almaty.

In this case, the Lithuanian team would be at the bottom of the group only if the Albanians defeat the Belarusians and the Kazakhs defeat the Albanians. In this way, the other three teams would accumulate 8 points each and leave Lithuania with 7 points behind.

If the Lithuanian national team won just one point during the next two battles, the probability that it would remain last in the group would increase to 50 percent.

In this case, it would be much more favorable for Lithuania to take the only point not in Minsk, but in Almaty, because it is the Kazakhs who would probably become direct competitors of Lithuania for third place.

If they lost to Kazakhstan but won a point in Minsk, the Lithuanians would probably be left with the split gelda. In this case, they would have to wait for the failures of the Albanians; nor should they win more than one point in two games.

It is true that even if the Lithuanian team were last in the group, it would not mean that they would have to fight in the lowest D division in the next Nations League season.

As there are four groups in Division C and only two in Division D, only the two worst teams in Division C will be eliminated at the bottom tier.

This means that in 2022. In March, the four losers from the Division C groups will play an extra stage to find out which two teams will have to advance to Division D.

The best team among those in fourth place of the Division C groups will play the worst, and the second will challenge the third. The teams will play one match at a time at home and away.

So far Cyprus, Estonia and Moldova have the last places in the other groups of Division C, but due to their destiny in the third stage of the League of Nations, the national teams of Azerbaijan, North Macedonia, Sacartwell, Armenia and Kosovo are not yet insured.

V. Urbon did not hesitate to predict

Before the last “window” of this year’s national teams opens, 15 minutes asked V. Urbonas, the coach of the Lithuanian team, what result would satisfy him in the last two battles of the League of Nations.

Photo by Julius Kalinskas / 15min / Valdis Urbonas

However, the specialist refrained from making predictions and emphasized the words spoken before the start of the League of Nations in early fall.

“We must refrain from obtaining results that satisfy us. I don’t want to be some kind of oracle or advance something to guess. I remember best the first conference in September, before the start of the League of Nations, when I expressed the goals of the team in the League of Nations. Nations I said our ultimate goal is to be in first place and our minimum goal is not to fall outside of Division C. I saw some skepticism in your eyes.

I am glad that the words do not go against the facts, and I believe very much that, despite the not so thankful situation regarding League A and the general situation, we continue with the same expectations and the same objectives. I am very confident that we will be able to complete this cycle properly, ”said the strategist, whose team has not lost five games in a row.

We remind you that the Lithuanian team will fight the Belarusians tonight at 7 pm Follow the progress of the match directly on the portal 15 minutes.