D. Trump will remove the United States from the “Open Skies” agreement: the decision also refers to the territory near Lithuania

According to The New York Times, Trump does not rule out the possibility of an agreement with Russia and the preservation of the United States’ participation in the Open Skies Agreement.

But even advisers to the American president himself admit that success should not be expected. In addition, the United States is already said to be loosening another important step: withdrawal from the Strategic Offensive Reduction Treaty (START).

And while Americans are already confident that they will not withdraw from the renewed START treaty, at least for now, they are also talking about “benevolent talks” with Russia.

And such discussions with Moscow are unlikely, and the Kremlin is unlikely to agree to Trump’s call for China to join the deal. Beijing itself does not show a strong desire to document its nuclear arsenal.

Analysts, it’s true, have so far talked more about the mistake made by the United States about the Open Skies Agreement, which allows more than 30 countries, including Lithuania, to operate unarmed aircraft on each other’s territory for surveillance purposes.

It’s a mistake, even though Russia doesn’t really follow the rules: Washington has been dissatisfied with the restrictions announced by the Russians in certain areas. One of them is the Kaliningrad region.

Start and implement an idea

Under the Open Skies Agreement, of which 34 states are signatories, aircraft transfers initiated through the territory of another country are intended to build trust and help prevent conflict.

The planes are full of smart sensors that pump information in flight and assess whether the state being flown is not preparing for military action.

The President of the United States, Dwight Eisenhower, was the first to propose in 1955 that the United States and the Soviet Union allow reconnaissance flights over each other’s territory.

USSR leader Nikita Khrushchev rejected what he thought was a clever plan to spy, but in 1989, when the communist empire was already crumbling, then-US leader George HW Bush and Secretary of State James Baker revived the idea.

The Open Skies Treaty was signed in 1992, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and entered into force in 2002. According to the document, to date, a total of more than 1.5 thousand. flights, of which 500 took place on Russian territory.

As already mentioned, these flights are intended to promote the transparency of military activities. There are many fuses; for example, inspected state officials have to be licensed aboard reconnaissance aircraft and can inspect them thoroughly, because the use of unapproved technologies is not possible.

The sensors are generally advanced, but they are not, as they say, seeing through, just, say, the ability to distinguish battle tanks from armor, recognizing different artillery systems.

According to many experts, the Open Skies Treaty is very useful because it is the best proof that the image is more powerful than a thousand words. In other words, photos taken on observation flights will always be more telling than any rhetorical trick.

And the flights over Kaliningrad?

However, passions are now awakened by the condition of the contract that each signer must agree to allow reconnaissance flights throughout their territory.

Generally speaking, US officials are not happy that Russia is restricting flights over the Kaliningrad region, where dangerous weapons are being deployed in Europe, especially in the Baltic States and Poland, as suspected in Washington.

Furthermore, the Kremlin limits the validity of the open skies to South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the puppet republics torn from Sacartwell. Intelligence aircraft are also excluded from the main Russian military exercises.

“It just struck us then. The United States cannot continue to honor the treaty if Russia violates it with impunity,” said Marshall Billingsea, Trump’s new arms negotiator.

U.S. authorities also allege that Trump himself was angered by the flight of a Russian intelligence plane directly over his golf course in New Jersey in 2017.

Furthermore, in classified intelligence reports, the Pentagon services write that Russia uses such flights over the United States to mark critical US infrastructure that could be hit by conventional and cyber weapons.

Why was Russia angry?

However, both Russia and the other signatories point out that the Open Skies Agreement does not prohibit such flights.

In addition, most of this information is publicly available, for example, through Google Earth.

The United States has also taken retaliatory measures by restricting Russia’s ability to conduct reconnaissance flights over its own islands in the Pacific and over anti-missile defense complexes in Alaska.

Moscow also has an explanation for the flight restriction over Kaliningrad. Aircraft to this enclave began to refuse after Poland organized its own flight over the area in 2014 under the Open Skies program.

Yes, Russia blessed the flight route and the country’s officials flew in a reconnaissance plane.

However, the plane turned over Kaliningrad for so long that there was considerable chaos at the air traffic control center – civilian flights could not be operated in the area for some time.

It is still unclear whether Russian officials boarding a Polish plane informed civilian air traffic controllers of the upcoming reconnaissance flight.

The plane circled Kaliningrad for so long that there was considerable chaos at the air traffic control center – civilian flights could not be conducted in the area for some time.

However, it is unclear why the Poles wanted to fly over Kaliningrad for so long, occupying only 15,000. Square kilometer area. There are analysts who believe that Russia probably could not afford not to restrict intelligence flights over the allegedly abusive area.

On the other hand, it was in 2014 that Russia annexed Crimea and triggered the war in eastern Ukraine, causing much concern throughout Eastern Europe, including Poland and the Baltic states themselves.

Cerro Moral

Russia is now climbing the so-called moral hill: Moscow is spreading reports one after another that the United States is making a mistake, and Russia will not withdraw from the Open Skies Treaty until it comes into force. Americans should withdraw from the contract for half a year.

“We need a pragmatic approach. As long as the agreement is in force, we intend to fully respect all the rights and obligations that apply to us under this agreement,” said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushka.

The purpose of the flights is to monitor the movement of Russian forces on the western border of this state and, therefore, throughout the Baltic countries.

According to him, “Russia’s behavior is based on the premise that all other parties do the same” and “takes a fair approach to the obligations of the parties to this treaty.”

Many other signatories to the treaty in Europe are already expressing concern over Trump’s decision. These countries, most of which belong to NATO, are unlikely to withdraw from the treaty, but they certainly have reason to fear.

After all, there is a fear that Russia will respond by cutting air traffic quotas for European countries after Washington leaves. And it is precisely these flights that aim to monitor the movement of Russian forces on the western border of this state and, therefore, throughout the Baltic countries.

All Open Skies Treaty signatories now have 60 days to assemble and prepare for withdrawal from the United States.

It is true that a greater participation of the United States in the agreement cannot be ruled out either. The watch, which will be running six months before the official departure date, is already running, but will ring after the US presidential election. USA Of this year.

And Democratic candidate Joe Biden’s foreign policy adviser, Antony Blinken, has already said he will support continued US participation in the Open Skies program; In other words, Biden’s victory over Trump would change the situation again.