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The new methodology, which would allow the Baltic states to trade electricity with Russia under the guarantee of origin system, has the backing of the Ministry of Energy and the operator of the electricity transmission system Litgrid, but declined to be approved by the Regulatory Council. of State Energy (VERT) and criticized by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Conservatives.
The main controversy is whether there are sufficient safeguards in the methodology to prevent the Astrava nuclear power plant from entering the Baltic common market.
Rytas Staselis, an expert from the Lithuanian National Energy Association (NLEA), says that current disputes within the country are undermining Lithuania’s positions in negotiations with Latvia and Estonia.
“It is a bit disappointing because we suggest this methodology. VERT knew about that methodology as well, it really learned not after the methodology was submitted for approval, but during the process. And when we do not agree within Lithuania, it is very difficult to appeal to Latvia and Estonia, ”R. Staselis told BNS.
According to him, VERT should approve the new methodology as soon as possible to create an effective certificate system that prevents the trade of electricity produced by the Astravo nuclear power plant in the Lithuanian market.
VERT claims that it has not yet approved the new methodology, as it does not guarantee that Belarusian electricity will not enter Lithuania.
At that time, Latvia and Estonia already approved the new tripartite methodology and believe that trade with Russia through Latvia can take place according to it. On November 5, two days after the Astravo nuclear power plant was connected to the system and Lithuania stopped trading with Belarus, Latvia began importing electricity through its connection with Russia.
“Latvia has always been in the middle of extreme positions on this issue. It was not very inclined to trade electricity with Russia, nor was it willing to sever all ties,” Latvian energy expert Reinis Aboltinis told BNS.
“As a result, Latvia tried to solve this situation in a way that, from Lithuania’s point of view, might not seem the most optimal,” he said.
Energy expert Vidmantas Jankauskas believes that the methodology approved in 2018 should remain legally valid, according to which, after the start of operations of the Astravas nuclear power plant and the termination of Lithuania’s trade with Belarus, trade through the connection between Latvia and Russia would not take place.
“If we look at what should be valid, the methodology that was previously approved (in 2018 – BNS) should be valid,” V. Jankauskas told BNS.
However, according to him, Lithuania needs to define more clearly what the so-called “anti-astravical” law aims to achieve, because it is impossible to talk about the non-entry of physical electricity into Lithuania by the end of 2025.
“I think we had to stop there when it was said that we would not buy commercial electricity, we would not have contracts and we would not buy.” But that it will not fall, it is understandable here, as long as those cables are, how can it not fall, “V. Jankauskas told BNS.
Giedrius Radvila, a representative of Lithuanian transmission system operator Litgrid, emphasized last week that with the emergence of a large production source near Lithuania, Astrava’s electricity would still physically flow into the deficit country’s market, as determined by the laws of physics.
On Thursday, Vidmantas Grušas, the acting director of Litgrid, told LRT television that the Belarusian market is currently in deficit, so Russian electricity flowing through Belarus is entering Lithuania.
Methodology – commitment
Naglis Navakas, an independent energy reviewer, says that the question of whether the methodology not approved by the Lithuanian regulator actually implements the anti-astravia law is a “question of interpretation.” However, he says that VERT lacks explanations in the public sphere as to which provisions of the new methodology are inappropriate.
“That methodology seems logical, because it is mainly based on the fact that the electricity flows are limited to the part consisting of the Lithuanian-Belarusian section in the common Baltic boiler,” N. Navakas told BNS.
“Whether it exactly implements the provisions of the anti-astral law is probably a matter of interpretation, but at least what the regulator needs to do is find out exactly why they think these provisions are inappropriate, because so far those explanations, at least in public, have been very drumzlini, ”he said.
R. Aboltinis considers the methodology to be a compromise and is surprised that the Lithuanian regulator has not previously submitted a position that it does not intend to approve such a methodology.
“Objectively speaking, there is no solution that fully satisfies the three Baltic countries. I think that what we have on the negotiating table at the moment is really a compromise, and I don’t think it is the worst,” said the Latvian expert.
For his part, Navak stressed that the methodology could be a good basis for developing other mechanisms that strengthen the operation of the “anti-astral” law.
Astrava’s electrical traceability is complex
When the Astrava nuclear power plant started generating electricity last week, Litgrid established a zero capacity for electricity imports from Belarus. A few days later, VERT revoked all permits that companies had to import electricity from Belarus.
However, some politicians and experts do not rule out that even without these permits, companies can import Belarusian electricity into Latvia through intermediaries through Latvia: Russian electricity imported to this country is traded in the Latvian area of the Nord Pool exchange. , from where it then flows to any market where there is a need.
Dalius Misiūnas, former director of Lietuvos Energija (now Ignitis grupė) and rector of the ISM, says that tracing the origin of electricity is quite complicated.
“The market is built in such a way that a company registered in Lithuania can buy electricity from another company registered in Latvia and can buy electricity from a company registered in Russia,” said D. Misiūnas at Delfi TV’s Lithuanian Policy Forum this week . .
V. Jankauskas emphasizes that it is technically impossible to track whether there will be electricity produced by Astrave in the Russian physical flow.
Electricity from the Astravo nuclear power plant could also reach the Baltic market via Scandinavia, which is connected to the Baltic countries via the NordBalt connection.
“But when we start talking about maybe electricity can go through NordBalt (Astravo – BNS), we will go to the absurdity. This is not a speech that can bear fruit, ”thinks N. Navakas.
When Energy Minister Žygimantas Vaičiūnas stated that the new methodology does not create preconditions for further development of the Astravas nuclear power plant, D. Misiūnas emphasizes that the precedent for trade with Russia taking place after Astravas began operating is bad.
“The very precedent that trade is taking place is a bad sign for us, even after synchronization, as it may be that after synchronization (op 2025 – BNS) Russia or our other neighbors will offer to maintain trade opportunities for the trade, “Delfi TV told a forum. discussed by D. Misiūnas.
Negotiations continue with Latvia on Astrava electricity boycott
Suspicions that the electricity produced by Astrave could enter the Lithuanian market also arose among members of the Seimas, which has now expired.
The European Affairs Committee this week called on the government to increase pressure on Latvia to trade electricity with Russia. The committee suggested that the Foreign Ministry inform Latvia that it had violated the 2018 tripartite agreement.
Foreign Minister Linas Linkevičius stated shortly after that the Ministry would write to Latvia, as Lithuania considered this a violation of the tripartite agreement. According to the minister, negotiations continue with Latvia on instruments to block the Astrava nuclear power plant.
After the Astravo nuclear power plant was connected to the system on November 3, Lithuania stopped trading electricity with Belarus immediately, although the lines connecting the two countries continue to transmit physical flows of electricity. Latvia began trading with Russia on November 5.
A new methodology agreed by the Baltic electricity transmission companies in October stipulates that the flow of Russian electricity imports to Latvia must be one third less than the line’s performance, and that this electricity must have a guarantee of origin showing that it is not produced in Belarus. and a new charge for network infrastructure.
The European Commission continues to be consulted on the methodology on Friday, after which VERT intends to disseminate its position.
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