Andrius Kubilius: The Knot of Karabakh. Which is stronger, Turkey or Russia?

The already known information was heard: Azerbaijani President Aliyev announced that Armenia had capitulated in the second Karabakh war, Azerbaijan is happy, Armenia is sad and angry, destroys the government of the defeated Pasinians, Russia presents its peacekeepers, Turkey welcomes Azerbaijan.

I know how sensitive this issue is for both Armenians and Azeris. I am not going to decide which of them were and are right yesterday (since 1992) and today and which are not. The Armenians, who expelled the Azeris by arms not only from Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh in 1994, but also from the 7 surrounding districts, have been trying to maintain the status quo with the help of Russia until now, and have not invested in a lasting peaceful solution. Since 1994, the Azeris have felt humiliated and sought revenge, which they have now achieved with the help of Turkey. The International Peace Initiative, the OSCE, the Minsk Group have made no efforts for 26 years. During all this time, the European Union has remained only a passive observer of this raging conflict and, more recently, it has also only watched the raging fire turn into a tragic volcano.

A map of the Nagorno-Karabakh division compiled by the BBC

While Azeris are currently celebrating and Armenians are sad, both sides need to reflect on something. What is the future of this region of the South Caucasus? It is very easy to become the new “Middle East”, where ethnic conflicts and wars will become a permanent feature, sinking the entire region into a deepening well of backwardness. Furthermore, today’s conflict has shown that this is not only a local interpretation of the relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which does not try to very wisely solve the problem of the Karabakh knot with a sword, but is also another place of conflict. between Russia and Turkey. And both sides of the Karabakh knot are becoming tools and hostages in this great struggle for power.

Russia is forced to recognize Turkish power

And while some explain that Russia, which has acquired the right to bring its peacekeepers and border guards to both Azerbaijan and Armenia, is the great winner of this war, Putin will even take revenge on Pashinian, the leader of the “revolution. of velvet “, a little more to the contrary. conclusion.

The Armenians, relying on Russian security guarantees and military technology, had to recognize the technological advantage of Azerbaijan, which relied on Turkish support and Turkish and Israeli technology.

This Nagorno-Karabakh war is another recent conflict in which Russia has been forced to recognize Turkish power. The Armenians, who depended on Russian security guarantees and military technology, had to recognize the technological advantage of Azerbaijan, which depended on Turkish support and on Turkish and Israeli technology.

This is the third place where Turkey has shown its military and technological superiority over Russia. The first time the Turks warned the Russians not to attack the city of Idlib in Syria. When the Russians did not listen to the Turkish warning, the Turks and their drones painfully taught them (I wrote about this in the text “Do you need a fist if you want peace?”), Followed by the same lesson in Libya, where the Turkish drones led to the side backed by Turkey. Government), although on the other side were the Russian mercenaries and Wagner’s military equipment and Macron’s political support.

It is indicative that Ukrainian President Zelensky rushed to Turkey a good month ago and signed a comprehensive military cooperation agreement with Erdogan. Ukrainians know which partners to choose to resist Russian aggression on the battlefield.

What is needed is not a sword, but wise political leadership.

Attempts to resolve the Karabakh knot with the sword have so far been unsuccessful: one side won a temporary victory with the help of some great neighbor, the other half sought the support of other great neighbors with an even larger sword and took refuge. a few decades later.

Unlike the solution of the Gordian knot proposed by Alexander the Great by the sword, the solution of the Karabakh knot does not require a sword, but wisdom, a wise political leadership. And the ability of leaders to make wise geopolitical decisions.

Russia has shown that it cannot be considered a reliable partner. The Turks, while showing that they can teach the Kremlin, are not acting very wisely because they are lighting a fire in their neighborhood.

The European Union could take a stronger initiative by offering Armenia and Azerbaijan long-term peace and rapid development assistance and a plan, but so far it can only speak of its “strategic autonomy” and criticize the US administration for successfully reconciling. Israel with the Arabs or Serbia with Kosovo.

Why is the European Union still afraid to assume greater leadership and responsibility in the South Caucasus or in other regions of the Eastern Partnership? I have only one answer: because they are afraid of the Kremlin and Putin. Supposedly – I don’t want to provoke. Turkey can be commended at least for showing three times in a row that the Kremlin is afraid of a fist. It is time for the European Union to draw the right conclusions. It is regrettable that this requires another Karabakh war.

Andrius Kubilius is a member of the European Parliament, permanent rapporteur of the Parliament on Russia. This text has been published on his Facebook account.