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Comparing the data from the survey conducted after the first round of the Seimas elections and public opinion in the pre-election period, trust in Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis has decreased. Meanwhile, the confidence of the population in the leaders emerged after the first round of the Seimas elections, who could form a new ruling majority, changed positively.
From October 13 to 23, a market research and public opinion company Baltijos tyrimai conducted a sociological survey commissioned by the ELTA news agency. During the survey, respondents were asked to say which Lithuanian public figures they trusted the most (names were mentioned by the respondents themselves).
23.3 percent. respondents in the country indicated that they are the ones who trust President Gitan Nauseda the most. Comparing this data with the results of the August surveys, confidence in the head of state increased slightly. In a survey conducted two months earlier, G. Nausėda declared confidence at 22.2 percent. population.
Meanwhile, public confidence in Prime Minister Skvernel fell by almost 3 percentage points during the same period. In August, 13.8 percent said they trusted the head of government. citizens, 11% remained in October.
Ingrida Šimonytė ranks third in the leaderboard. The future prime minister’s confidence rating rose similarly as confidence in S. Skvernel declined. Currently 8.5 percent. residents claim trust in I. Šimonyte. Meanwhile, in a survey conducted two months earlier, it was 5.9 percent.
Among the most frequently named personalities trusted by respondents and the two outgoing presidents: Dalia Grybauskaitė (6% trust) and Valdas Adamkus (5.9%). The confidence index of both former leaders of the country fell slightly in two months.
The biggest changes in the confidence rating are outside of the top five. In a few months, confidence in Aušrine Armonaitė, the chairman of the Freedom Party, who surprised the results of the Seimas elections, increased further.
In a poll between the first and second rounds of the parliamentary elections – at that time it was already clear that the Freedom Party had entered the Seimas – said 4.2% of those who trusted A. Armonaite. the citizens. Meanwhile, two months before the elections, there were no such percentages.
Ramūnas Karbauskis, President of the Lithuanian Peasants and Greens Union (4.8%), Viktoras Uspaskichas, President of the Labor Party (4.2%) and Gabrielius Landsbergis, President of the National Christian Democratic Union of Lithuania (4, 1%), were also in the top ten. ) and Gintautas Paluckas, president of the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (3.4%). Confidence in these politicians has changed little over the two months.
In total, in October 2020, respondents named 92 public figures (81 months ago, 81) they trusted the most. A quarter (24%) of the respondents answered that there are no such public figures or did not answer this question.
Sociologist: The rankings of leaders who make up the government should increase in the near future
Rasa Ališauskienė, sociologist and director of Baltic Research, commenting on the results of these surveys, says that it is natural that A. Armonaitė’s ratings have increased further.
According to her, this was mainly determined by the results of the Freedom Party that attracted public attention after the first round of the Seimas elections. At the same time, it observes that, at least in the first half of the year after the parliamentary elections, trust in the parties that make up the new government and in their leaders should grow. Of course, the sociologist points out that this “confidence in advance”, which is usually growing in society after elections, may be somewhat suppressed by a pandemic.
“Naturally, after the first round of the Seimas elections, those who obtained the best results in the elections were mentioned more frequently and were shown more often on television. It can be said that in the case of Armonaitė, after the first round electoral, a certain novelty effect was activated, perhaps a little less known until then. Meanwhile, after the first round, she and the Freedom Party were discussed much more frequently and more, “said R. Ališauskienė.
According to her, at least in the first months or in the first half of the year after the Seimas elections, the confidence index of the future Prime Minister I. Šimonytė should increase significantly. However, according to the sociologist, the leadership and debut of I. Šimonytė can hardly have a significant long-term impact on the position of the Conservatives in party rankings. According to her, the number of supporters of the ruling party in the coalition is likely to increase only for a time.
“The parties that form a coalition have their constituents. If we look at what support the party (TS-LKD – ELTA) received from all those who have the right to vote, it would be around 10-11 percent. Therefore, there is not much place to go (for rating: ELTA). Because a large proportion of the population is not politically active, it does not elect either party. However, in the first half of the elections, if we ask you how you rate the party itself and its activities (rather than why you would vote), it is usually the majority who have some time and confidence. They have been evaluated better for a while than before, but generally after half a year that evaluation deteriorates, ”said R. Ališauskienė.
According to the sociologist, this is mainly due to the fact that a society whose expectations have been awakened by a particular political force has to be disappointed when the implementation of the promises made stalls in the coalition government.
“If a party had obtained an absolute majority, it would have been much easier to implement the program,” added R. Ališauskienė.
Still, the sociologist agreed that the new government’s previous assessment could be adjusted for a pandemic.
“It just came to our attention then. So far, the new government has not spoken much on this issue. As the plan was not discussed during the elections, it is difficult to say what it will look like and how the people will evaluate it,” said the director of Baltic Research.
The survey was conducted in 2020. October 13-23. During the research, 1000 Lithuanian residents (aged 18 years and over) were interviewed by personal interviews and the survey was conducted at 118 sampling points. The composition of the respondents corresponds to the composition of the Lithuanian population aged 18 and over by sex, age, nationality and type of settlement. The opinion of the people surveyed reflects the opinion of the Lithuanian population aged 18 and over. The error of the research results is up to 3.1 percent.
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