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“The population of Lithuania is mainly determined by migration. Since migration has been positive for some time, these are all preconditions for population growth. When it comes to the coronavirus, it is much more difficult to say (…). However, in the long term, crises usually cause a certain temporary decrease (population – ELTA), therefore, for natural reasons, the impact of the virus on the population will be negative ”- said Eltai.
However, the professor emphasized that although the COVID-19 infection will inevitably lead to a population decline, it is difficult to determine how the virus affects the migration of the general population.
“So far, (coronavirus – ELTA) does not seem to have a negative impact on migration, as it may be a bit easier for people to survive such crises in their homeland (…). Of course, temporary trips abroad due to shorter jobs have been significantly paralyzed. However, it is difficult to say how much going to work for a few months affected the population, “said D. Burneika.
“It is very likely that now … people will register in Lithuania and live elsewhere to receive the benefits. This has not been proven, but it may be that some of the unemployed do not formally live in Lithuania, because now it is quite possible to do it ”, he added.
D. Burneika emphasized that emigration is decreasing due to the current demographic structure in Lithuania.
“Our demographic structure is such that not many people have a mass exodus.” 10 years ago, we had a lot of young people graduating from schools and universities, we still had a crisis, so of course a lot of people left, “he told Eltai .
According to the professor, scientists estimate that immigration flows to Lithuania will be monitored in the next decade.
“At all times, all the waves of emigration had some kind of feedback (…). The mere fact that we have many people who can return and few who can leave means that we still have some time left (population growth – ELTA) (…) We estimate that migratory flows should occur in about 10 years “He said. “
According to D. Burneika, Lithuanians emigrate not only out of the desire for a better life, but also because of the surplus labor in the country.
“It is quite obvious that most of the reasons are related to people’s expectations to live better, to earn more. … Our emigration to this day is clearly driven by a large surplus of labor. Many jobs were lost, especially in industry and agriculture, and new jobs are being created elsewhere, so many people had to emigrate to other Lithuanian cities or abroad. In total, we lost about half million jobs, (…) approximately half a million people had to disappear somewhere. Some left, “he said.
The professor emphasized that more attention should now be paid not to encouraging Lithuanians to return to their homeland, but to managing immigration from third countries.
“The only sensible strategy is to create as good and socially just society as possible, in principle to create and run one’s own country. I don’t think any special strategy or special measures are needed to encourage re-migration. I think a lot should be paid more attention to managing immigration from third countries, because it is a challenge. “Companies should bring in cheap labor if the economy recovers, which has never and nowhere had very good consequences in the long term “, he assured.
In addition, the professor added that it is not the quantitative migratory factor but the qualitative one that is much more important.
“The next thing, I think, is that our emigration and immigration strategy must have a very clear look at qualitative problems. That is, we should be much more important not only how many people come and go, but who comes and goes. It will determine the future of the country, “he told Eltai.
ELTA recalls that this year, for the first time in 28 years, Lithuania’s annual population has increased. The last permanent population growth was recorded in 1991. On January 1 of this year, 2 million people lived in Lithuania. 794.3 thousand permanent population – 145 more than a year ago.
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