[ad_1]
After modeling the possible cases, the researchers note that if the number of new infections increases by 5.8 percent every day. (as in September) and 8 percent. all those infected would be seriously ill and in need of hospitalization, and quarantine measures should be strengthened after Late. Only in this way will it be possible to reduce the workload of medical institutions and ensure that patients with COVID-19 do not occupy more than the thousand hospital beds currently planned throughout the country. In the pessimistic scenario, this number of beds would be completely full by the second half of November (see Scenario A in Figures 1 and 2).
LSMU / LEI Fig. 1 Fig. Dynamics of daily infections.
- Scenarios A and B, where the number of new infections increases by 5.8% and the number of hospitalized patients by 8% until the daily quarantine measures are tightened. of all infected (A) and 5 percent. (SECOND). After the introduction of quarantine measures (for scenario A on 03/11/2020 and for scenario B on 12/11/2020) a -2% is ensured. relative decrease in daily infections. A thin blue line shows the daily increase in infections, a thick green line shows the daily increase in infections smoothed by a 15-day moving average. Quarantine adjustment dates are marked with an “o”.
Illustration LSMU / LEI / Fig. 2. Dynamics of the number of hospitalized patients for scenarios A and B
- Dynamics of patient hospitalization for scenarios A and B, when the relative increase in daily infections before the tightening of quarantine measures was 5.8% and the number of hospitalized patients was 8%. of all infected (A) and 5 percent. (SECOND). After the introduction of quarantine measures (for case A on 11/03/2020 and for case B on 11/12/2020) a -2% is ensured. relative decrease in daily infections. Quarantine adjustment dates are marked with an “o”.
If 5 percent were hospitalized. for all those infected, quarantine measures must be introduced into the country on November 12 (Scenario B in Figures 1 and 2).
Although more and more preventive measures are being introduced in Lithuania, there is a high probability that the spread of the infection will reach the level of the Czech Republic, where about 7% is detected daily. more new infections. In this case, the number of hospital beds for COVID-19 patients may be overcrowded earlier than planned.
The researchers note that today in hospitals in large cities, COVID-19 provides only 400 beds for patients, which can be filled earlier than in regions. Therefore, it is especially important to provide extra beds today, to reduce the social contacts of the population, to further establish contacts of the sick, if necessary, to self-isolate. It is also important to be responsible, use personal protective equipment and respect hygiene and distance.
If the prevailing trends of the epidemic had prevailed in Lithuania in early October, when the number of new infections was increasing by 3% every day, and hospitalized patients would have increased by 8%. of all infected, quarantine measures would be needed later, around December 15 (Scenario C in Figures 3 and 4). If only 5% were hospitalized. of all infected, a tightening of the quarantine would be required just before the New Year on December 31 (Scenario D in Figures 3 and 4).
Illustration LSMU / LEI / Fig. 3. Daily infection dynamics for cases C and D
- Daily infection dynamics for cases C and D, where the relative increase in daily infections before the tightening of quarantine measures is 3%, and hospitalized patients represent 8% of all infections (case C) and 5 % (case D). After the introduction of quarantine measures (12/15/2020 for case C and 2020-12-31 for case D), a relative reduction of -2% in daily infections is ensured. A thin blue line shows the daily increase in infections, a thick green line shows the daily increase in infections smoothed by a 15-day moving average. Quarantine adjustment dates are marked with an “o”.
Illustration LSMU / LEI Fig. 4. Dynamics of the number of hospitalized patients for cases C and D
- Dynamics of the number of patients hospitalized for cases C and D, where the relative increase in daily infections before the tightening of quarantine measures is 3%, and hospitalized patients represent 8% of all infections (case C) and 5% (case B). After the introduction of quarantine (for C on 12/15/2020 and for D on 12/31/2020) a relative reduction of -2% in daily infections is ensured. Quarantine adjustment dates are marked with an “o”.
Scientists warn that it is not yet possible to accurately predict the future course of the pandemic in Lithuania; So far, there are no models that can reliably predict the course of the pandemic in a week or later. According to them, much in the country will also depend on the decisions of the government, as well as the level of consciousness and self-protection of the population. Ongoing simulations can help predict when it would be appropriate to introduce quarantine measures and avoid overloading the healthcare system.
[ad_2]
