[ad_1]
The Polish Lithuanian-Union of Christian Families (LLRA-KŠS) electoral campaign did not exceed 5% during these Seimas elections. voting barrier and did not enter the Seimas. The party raised 4.82 percent in the elections. votes. It is true that two single-member members of LLRA-KŠS won seats for the Seimas in the first round.
“Scheduled grade reduction”
In public opinion polls carried out a few weeks before the Seimas elections, 5.3 percent expressed their support for the Polish electoral campaign. respondents who intended to stand for election. The survey was commissioned by the ELTA news agency from September 17 to 27 from the market research and public opinion company Baltijos tyrimai.
Rasa Ališauskienė, director of Baltic Research and sociologist, recalls that the party’s support has recently been at the 5 percent required to enter the Seimas. vote limits. But throughout the year, the match ranking was slightly lower than usual.
“It was a little smaller, but as this year was abnormal due to the pandemic, there were many indecisive polls all the time. Indecisive maybe not so much why to vote, but whether or not to vote. But the party adhered to that limit. ”Said R. Ališauskienė on tv3.lt.
At the time, the director of the Department of Political Science at Vytautas Magnus University, Associate Professor Andžejus Pukšto, says that the fall in the party’s rating was practically programmed, but the unmanageable electoral barrier is not significant.
“I would not say that there was a very big earthquake here. Because 0.2 percent. Not much. They remained very weakly behind the board. But what I repeat is that the decline in their popularity is not that strong, nor that drastic, but yes consistent enough if we look back, even to the most recent elections of the Seimas. The fall is almost programmed, “said A. Pukštas.
Party voter changes
One of the main reasons for the defeat suffered by the LLRA-KŠS, as R. Ališauskienė says, is the change in the younger voter and the search for new representatives of national minorities in other parties.
“It just came to our attention then. He is disciplined, he usually votes for them at the national level, but on the other hand, he gets old. And the Poles in Vilnius are getting younger and younger, they are finding other representatives. It is no longer, as it used to be, that Up to 80% of people will vote according to their national character. Polish. And now they either don’t go to the polls or find representatives of different nations in other parties, “the sociologist explained.
A. Pukštas also echoes this, pointing out that not only the mentality of national minorities is changing, but also the mentality of Lithuanian voters.
“On the one hand, there are positive changes in Lithuanian society and the political scene that Lithuanian society is becoming more open. We see many positive developments due to national tolerance. Political parties are also trying to target the minority electorate to some extent.
But of course, the Lithuanian Poles are also changing. So much the new generation, which grew up in the already independent Lithuania, which is also connected to Poland, which is more open to Western values, has grown up, ”said A. Pukšto.
There is still a lack of political competition
Vytautas University Associate Professor Magnus is not absolute that all members of the Polish election campaign are morally obsolete politicians. He himself assesses the mandate of the Interior Minister Rita Tamašunienė very well. However, the political scientist recognizes that the party needs a change.
“It’s probably no secret that this is a question of leadership. That authoritarian style, the lack of a democratic paradigm, the orientation towards populism and the Kremlin, which is sometimes praised for its values, oppose the democratic changes in Ukraine four years ago, now against Belarus. That worldview will probably have to be abandoned, ”commented A. Pukštas.
However, A. Pukštas is reluctant to claim that the party leader, Valdemaras Tomaševskis, will resign as president, although he himself promised to do so in the event of the party’s defeat in the elections. According to the political scientist, whether the LLRA-KŠS will change and whether it will change leaders will be determined by the competition for the party. and so far only the seedlings are visible.
“Currently, in my opinion, that competition is very small and certain monopolists are still felt among national minorities in south-eastern Lithuania. Much will depend on whether other political parties open up to national minorities, invite representatives of national minorities, or they try to work in that direction thematically. It is likely that a lot depends on the competition, “said the VMU associate professor.
The party was accompanied by scandals
It was not just the pandemic or bad weather that led voters to vote more modestly in this year’s election. According to R. Ališauskienė, the fact that party leader V. Tomaševskis practically did not participate in the campaign reacted painfully to the party.
“Tomaszewski himself did not stand as a candidate. When there were mayoral or presidential elections in Vilnius, the difference was visible: if Tomaševskis goes himself, he still attracts more votes. Because he is still better known for the Polish electoral campaign.
How would you rate it there, but the party is still associated with it by a voter? If he is not himself, here, like the Labor Party, if Uspaskich does not participate actively in the electoral campaign, then that factor works, ”said the sociologist.
R. Ališauskienė also hypothesizes that the match brought a lower result and an active advertising campaign against it.
“An active educational campaign on all its prosperity or ills, I think, has had an impact. For the first time, it is happening so that information about the party is disseminated so actively in the districts where the majority of its voters are present, ”said R. Ališauskienė.
It is true that, for the latter reason, the Polish electoral campaign required the Central Election Commission to declare the results of the elections in a multi-member constituency invalid.
The CEC may declare electoral results invalid if it determines that serious violations of electoral laws have had a material effect on the electoral results.
[ad_2]
