The two biggest electoral surprises: why the Freedom Party and the Social Democrats triumphed too

But the voters’ votes expressed the points differently. In the multi-member constituency, the LSDP raised just 9.26 percent. the votes of the voters, who in the Seimas secured only 8 seats for this political force. Meanwhile, the Freedom Party, whose chances of entering the Seimas before the elections seemed nebulous, received 9.02 percent. voter support and has already secured 8 seats since the first round.

It is also interesting that 12 candidates from both the Social Democrats and the Freedom Party ran for the second round of elections in single-member districts. It is true that the new liberal force in all single-member spears will fight with the candidates of the Lithuanian Christian National-Democratic Union (TS-LKD). Meanwhile, the list of opponents to the LSDP is varied: two single-member members will have to fight against social workers, three with the Liberal Movement, three more with the LVŽS, two with the TS-LKD and two more with non-partisan candidates.

Protest votes – for the Freedom Party

Although a number of political scientists considered that non-participation in the ruling and opposition rallies could become a strength of the LSDP this year, this did not happen. According to Delfi, the director of Baltic Research, the sociologist dr. Rasa Ališauskienė, it seems that some of the tired faces of the Seimas were constantly wasting their voices at the Aušrinė Armonaitė party.

„In 2016 there was more protest vote both against the socdemus, and in the second round more against the conservatives. As we can see at least from the first round, it is now more than the protest votes have gone to the Freedom Party. But that’s still 9 percent, there wasn’t a pendulum like it used to be. It used to be that those in power lost a lot. Not this time, “said R. Ališauskienė.

It was also quite unexpected that the new liberal force received a lot of support in the smaller cities of Lithuania. According to the interviewee, the answer may be people who live in large cities but declare their place of residence elsewhere.

“The cities voted for the parties because both constituencies are bigger and there are more voters. Also, let’s not forget that we can look at early voting and on election day. An example is that the Freedom Party received proportionally more than the “workers” and the “socdem” in advance. It means that there is a high probability that people living and working in Vilnius voted, and their votes went to the place where they declared their place of residence, “said R. Ališauskienė.

That this may be one of the explanations why the Freedom Party obtained many votes in the regions was also agreed by the Vilnius University International Relations and Political Science document (VU TSPMI). the political scientist Mažvydas Jastramskis.

Attracted to those who don’t go to the polls

On the night of the elections, R. Ališauskien el considered that the support of the Freedom Party in the province could be partly determined by chance. The sociologist considered that due to the similarity of the party names, voters could simply confuse the Freedom Party with Remigijus Žemaitaitis’s Freedom and Justice.

At the time, R. Ališauskienė based such a statement on the fact that even in those districts where former “regulars” used to vote, now the party led by R. Žemaitaitis performed poorly, but the Freedom Party demonstrated a good performance. result there.

However, Mr. Jastramski categorically rejected this option. According to him, his success could also be determined by the novelty card.

“I think we have to end with explanations that greatly underestimate people. How can names be confused? In that sense, you see leaders. Even the logic that people in Lithuania are important personalities immediately refutes this assumption, because you see where Žemaitaitis is, where Armonaitė is. No way.

The essential thing that cannot be confused is that the Freedom Party is a new political entity. And some voters, especially those who were able to vote in smaller towns, in the province, are not liberal and progressive citizens, but it is a fresh new force. That freshness could have added to them in this place (voices – “Delphi”). Because when you look at Freedom and Justice, how fresh there is, ”said M. Jastramskis.

Meanwhile, Ignas Zokas, head of Spinter Research, noted that the Freedom Party had succeeded in attracting the circle of voters who generally fall into the gray zone of not voting in general.

“The surprise of this election was the Freedom Party. Interestingly, not only did they perform well, but they expanded their electoral base. They have a young voter who generally did not come. And the fact that they managed to catch them, that that voter made it to the polls and behind them, is unequivocally a good thing here, not just for the party, but for the system itself. They were able to move that segment of youth that is so difficult to move, “said the interlocutor.

As A. Armonaitė has previously said that she is not currently negotiating a coalition with any political force, and in the second round of a single member she is preparing to fight with all her might, I. Zokas has not been determined to predict how it will succeed. the new political force. According to him, it is not clear whether the Freedom Party will be able to invite young voters to the polls a second time.

“It just came to our attention then. Another thing, there will be a lot of votes and ‘no’. Even if many people go to the second round, they often no longer have the candidate they voted for and have to choose between two less attractive candidates. This is usually the one who seems the least evil, ”said I. Zokas.

According to M. Jastramskis, it is quite real that what saved the Freedom Party in the first round will not necessarily be a guarantee of success in the second.

“I think they can take some individual members. But the question was if it was more of a multinominal party that went with the novelty, with a very clearly defined ideological value niche. In that single member because of that clearly defined ideological niche, they can lose out to the conservatives, who are a more umbrella party, more inclusive.

I would not expect a very special success in the terms of a single member, but some terms can be added, “predicted the political scientist.

The miracle of the Social Democrats will never happen again

Speaking about the failure of the LSDP and the second round, M. Jastramskis said that voters who would go to the polls in two weeks would not save the results of the party and offered to consider changing the party president.

“They are unmotivated and less than 10 percent. after achieving some miracle in the second round, it should not be. In general, they should rethink their entire strategy with great force and perhaps even think about the new presidential election, “said the interlocutor.

According to the political scientist, if this party managed to locate itself in the ruling coalition, that step could be disastrous.

“I would think that even if they somehow came out to shape the center-left coalition, which was talked about a lot in the first two hours of the elections and now almost no one talks about it, it would be suicide for them to come to power now. “Jastramsky said.

When asked to share his thoughts on why so few voters supported LSDP, the political scientist said it was an election campaign and a leadership problem. According to M. Jastramski, the Conservatives played much smarter this year.

“One thing is clear, his electoral campaign itself was not good, it was not brilliant, there were no clear and new ideas. The second thing is, you probably don’t tire of the leader either. We have seen this before, and the difference between, for example, the Union of the Fatherland, the traditional right and the traditional left, was that Landsbergis nonetheless withdrew before the elections and left Šimonytė. And Paluck decided to do it himself and we see how he did it, “said the interlocutor.

Furthermore, he warned, and the growing portrait of Lithuanian voters shows that a party like the LSDP now has little place in our country’s politics.

“Our politics is still becoming more ideological, more structured and programmatic. And there is not much niche for Social Democrats here if they are oriented towards Western Social Democrats. They are trying to be liberal in terms of human rights and neglected in the economy. many people like that. We see that the people who are liberal in our country are more inclined to the right, and those who are more conservative and want the left will be the area of ​​the Labor Party and the ‘peasants’ here. The Socdemas are still stagnant “, said M. Jastramskis.