An expert on Putin’s dangerous scenario: the security situation in Europe would fundamentally change

According to rferl.org, the authorities since 1994. Lukashenko, who has not been released, has been in international isolation since announcing the controversial August 9. winner of the election and began brutal treatment with protesters and opposition leaders. Mr. Lukashenko on September 23. Following a secret inauguration, the European Union and the United States declared their disapproval of their legitimate president.

However, Vladimir Putin shook hands with Lukashenko, who had previously used the European Union and Washington to reverse Russia’s dominant position, including a proposal to provide the necessary military assistance to quell what the two leaders saw as a fully insurgent uprising. led by foreigners. .

Russia, which has long sought permanent military bases in Belarus, has intensified its military activity in and around Belarus. After Kiev 2014. Power has turned unfavorable for Russia, Belarus remains Russia’s last friend on the border with Europe.

The intensification of Russian military action in Belarus would change the geopolitical situation in Europe, says Keir Giles, author of the book Moscow Rules and consultant to the think tank Chatham House (Royal Institute of International Affairs, London).

“The presence of Russian forces in Belarus, including air and missile forces that are likely to be brought here, would fundamentally change the security situation in a large area of ​​Central Europe,” Giles said of RFE / RL.

“In this case, the implementation of popular scenarios related to the Russian military marches, such as the attack on the Suwalki corridor – the Polish-Lithuanian border section that separates the Kaliningrad enclave from all of Russia – would no longer require major geopolitical maneuvers.

In a military sense, Russia and Belarus are already closely linked. The two are connected by an integrated missile and air defense system, as well as a regional force group consisting of four Belarusian brigades and special forces and the 20th Russian Guard. In addition, Belarus is a member of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization.

During the current crisis, Lukashenko has claimed that Putin has assured him that the Collective Security Treaty Organization will provide aid, based on unsubstantiated allegations that NATO is mobilizing troops on the western border with Belarus.

In Belarus, Russia is leasing two military facilities: a strategic missile defense facility in Hancavichy, operated by the Russian aviation and space technology forces, and the international communications base of the Russian Navy in Vileika.

But the goal of having a permanent base is a long-term goal for the Kremlin, explains Nigel Gouldis-Davies, a former British ambassador to Belarus and a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

“Moscow has been at least since 2013. It sought to have an air force base in Belarus. It already had two smaller facilities: radar equipment and naval communications equipment. However, the base would be an important step forward, since Belarus borders three NATO countries, “Gouldis-Davies explained to RFE / RL.

2015 Putin called for an agreement on a basis for Russian Su-27 fighters, but Lukashenko rejected the option. Later, in September 2019, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called the case an “unpleasant episode”.

The situation came a year after Russia illegally annexed the Ukrainian-owned Crimean peninsula and began supporting separatists in eastern Ukraine.

Refusing to follow instructions in any event, Lukashenko began to reconsider the territorial integrity of his country and began and continued a warmer relationship with the West, a common strategy he resorted to when relations with Russia became strained.

Now that the Ukrainian government is anti-Kremlin, Belarus is “gaining new importance for Russia’s strategy,” especially along the Suwalki corridor, which connects the Kaliningrad enclave, which is also very important for Russia militarily, he recently wrote. military analyst Nicholas Myers.

Now that Lukashenko is in power, he may be more cautious with the Air Force base, as can the extension of the lease for the two facilities, which expires in June 2021.

“Today, when Lukashenko’s bargaining power has almost waned, Russia has all the cards that will help achieve this strategic goal,” explains Laurynas Jonavičius, professor at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University.

However, Moscow may not yet be in a hurry to take advantage of this, and fears that being too close to an unpopular leader whose days may be numbered is a futile move that sparks public outrage.

“As Lukashenko currently depends on Russia’s support to stay in power, any radical move by Russia on the issue could provoke an extremely negative reaction from angry society. Moscow does not want to repel the Belarusians, as it did in the case of the Ukrainians ”, teaches L. Jonavičius.

Many analysts see parallels between Lukashenko and the former president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, who was ousted after the Maidan protests in late 2013 and early 2014.

A month after its overthrow in February 2014, Russia annexed Crimea and a month later began supporting separatists in eastern Ukraine.

“As in the case of Ukraine, it is believed that Russia will seek to intervene if it turns out that Moscow is in danger of” losing “Belarus to the West. There has been a great and unending debate for the last six years about what could trigger the next military intervention. Russia in Europe after what happened in the Ukraine case. “Many of these scenarios envisioned that the situation could emerge exactly as it does now in Belarus, taking into account all the far-reaching consequences for the security of the entire continent that could bring the current situation, “says K. Giles.

“There are many differences between Belarus and Ukraine, but when considering the possibility of a Russian invasion, there are also significant similarities.” Instability and the risk of losing an effective veto following Belarus’ accession to the West are of equal deep concern to the Kremlin today as it was for Ukraine in 2014, “Giles said.

Giles and other analysts doubt there is a Russian invasion of Belarus; they see the current actions as attempts to strengthen Russia’s military activity in Belarus.

“Russia is likely to try to use the crisis in Belarus to strengthen its military activity in this country.” This military activity can take the form of much more frequent exercises and the rotation of deployed troops, ”explains Voiceek Lorenz, a security analyst at the Polish Institute for International Relations in Warsaw.

Recently, under the guise of military exercises, Russian soldiers have been in and out of Belarus.

In September, Russian forces were deployed to the Belarusian city of Brest, just five kilometers from the Polish border, as part of an annual exercise.

Roughly 1,000 Russian airborne officers conducted bogus strategic airstrikes and bombings involving six Russian strategic bombers, Tupolev Tu-22.

The “Slavic Brotherhood” exercise on September 15-25 was Russia’s message to NATO, Giles does not hesitate.

“This is not only a progressive normalization of Russian military activity in Belarus, which could turn into a semi-permanent Russian military operation in the country, but also a clear message from Russia: it indicates that it can completely change the strategic situation in a matter of hours. “. relocating forces to specific border regions of Belarus, ”explains K. Giles.

Russia’s Defense Ministry says the exercise was a “response to NATO actions” on the border, not in Belarus, but in Russia’s alliance with Belarus.

2019 October 25 Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said the security situation on the western side of Russia “remained tense”, adding that “NATO continues to increase its potential for combat and military activity in Europe. NATO is intensifying its military activities, deploying additional troops and offensive weapons. “

From October 12 to 16, according to the regulations of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, another exercise is planned in Belarus: “The Unbreakable Brotherhood-2020”. They should include troops from Armenia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, as well as Russia and Belarus.

Russia’s Defense Ministry announced Belarus as the location of the exercise on September 15, a day after the Putin-Lukashenko meeting in Sochi, during which Russian leader Lukashenko donated $ 1.5 billion. A loan worth USD to help maintain your regimen. During the talks, Putin and Lukashenko agreed to extend the exercise of the “Slavic Brotherhood” until September 25. and 2021. Carry out joint military exercises between the two countries “almost every month.”