The scourge of sanctions is only the beginning: Lukashenko wants to punish so little that he does not appear

“The protests, which take place mainly in Minsk, have been organized and extremely radical. As a result, employees of internal affairs institutions and soldiers of the internal army will not leave the streets and, if necessary, will use special means and military weapons, “Belarus Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs Gennady Kazakevich said on Monday.

Such a peculiar response to the agreement of the EU foreign ministers to expand the sanctions list, which includes Kazakevičius himself, shows a new escalation of the crisis: since August 9, when the Lukashenko regime, which manipulated the presidential elections and organized actions against protesters, not only clinging to power but also complaining about critics in the West.

Retaliatory sanctions in the EU, military declarations to Vilnius and Warsaw, expulsions of Lithuanian and Polish diplomats and threats to declare some Lithuanian diplomats undesirable; Such actions by Lukashenko not only deepen the crisis, but also raise additional questions: whether sanctions have been announced and promised to strengthen them. regime and what else can Lithuania and other EU countries do?

The sanctions list is not exhaustive

Formally, the EU has already done its best for Belarus: EU sanctions against officials of the Lukashenko regime were passed in early October, with nearly 40 names in addition to Kazakevich. On Monday, EU foreign ministers agreed to expand the list to include Lukashenko himself “unless he talks to the opposition about the new elections and stops the violence against protesters.”

While the EU is still harmonizing all procedures to toughen such sanctions, which include not only travel bans but also asset freezes, Lukashenko is expected to finally understand and remove the leaders, as he did in 2016 when he released political prisoners. and relaxation of sanctions.

At the same time, it is no secret that, in addition to EU action, national sanctions such as those imposed by the United Kingdom, Canada and the United States could become painful measures for the Lukashenko regime. It is the strengthening of national sanctions that is remembered once again in Lithuania, which was one of the first to announce its sanctions against the Belarusian regime.

Initially, more than 30 names were announced in early August, including that of Lukashenko, his son Viktor, national security adviser Igor Sergejenka, the current head of Lukashenko’s administration, as well as Interior Minister Yuriy Karayev and the aforementioned Deputy Minister Kazakevich. , Deputy Ministers Sergei Chomenko and Alexander Barsukov, Chairman of the Belarusian State Security Committee (KGB) Valery Vakulchik, Deputy Minister Sergei Terebov, Chairman of the State Audit Committee Ivan Tertel, Commander of the Internal Armed Forces Yuri Nazarenka , Attorney General Alexander Konyuk.

The sanctions also apply to one of the leaders of the Minsk militia, Ivan Kubrakov, employees of the Ministry of Justice Irina Celikovec, the chairman of the Investigation Commission, Ivan Noskevičius, and others. All members of the Central Election Commission will not be able to come to Lithuania. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia announced on Monday the same coordinated sanctions against these Belarusian officials who contributed to electoral fraud and violence against peaceful protesters.

Later, the Baltic countries expanded the “black list”, each adding more than 100 names of regime officials. However, it is important to emphasize that such a penalty has a limited effect on all of these people: it is just a travel ban.

In other words, officials who helped to falsify elections or were involved in acts of violence against protesters will no longer be able to go to shopping or entertainment centers in Lithuania. But in theory they can have the funds and assets here to manage them. To limit such activities, Lithuania looks first at the entire EU; this is an area of ​​competence of Brussels, and Lithuanian law does not provide otherwise. However, this procedure could and could change if changes in the law are approved.

For offers of humiliation to apply to the pockets of the regime

According to Laurynas Kasčiūnas, chairman of the Seimas Group for a Democratic Belarus, the simplest thing would be to propose to the EU to deepen and extend EU sanctions: This is exactly what both the Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the EU do. However, according to the MP, this is not enough.

“The EU must draw the line that the existing sanctions are not the final solution. Those last names are still there, both OMON officials and the regime’s propagandists, which is a task for our diplomacy and that of the EU, reserves they have not really been exhausted yet, “said L. Kasčiūnas, noting why the violence in Belarus is not stopping, which is one of the main reasons for the extension of sanctions.

“Therefore, we must think of the companies involved in the regime, not of the individual sectors of society that would suffer corporate bankruptcies, but of the companies of the regime’s economic activity scheme, such as transportation, energy, that act like pockets of the regime, “said L. Kasčiūnas.

On the other hand, according to him, it is necessary to take into account the national factor: the way in which A. Lukashenko treats Lithuanian diplomats, according to the parliamentarian, is humiliation.

“That is why Lithuania can think of a national solution, even if Lukashenko can play that game of his” good Baltic country “and” bad Baltic country “, a good bad game: it is we who are humiliated. Therefore, it is strange that nothing happens, “said L. Kasčiūnas, emphasizing that until now Lithuania’s response to the behavior of the Belarusian regime, contempt and threats from Lithuanian leaders and diplomats, has been very careful not to cut off all contacts. Lithuania has just imposed its sanctions on regime officials, condemning Lukashenko’s hostile actions, and vowing to mirror retaliatory measures.

According to L. Kasčiūnas, it is obvious that the main obstacle for Lithuanian institutions, first of all, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is the laws of Lithuania, which prevent the application of stricter sanctions.

Lithuanian diplomats and other institutions closely monitoring the actions of the Belarusian regime are likely to be able to provide more names to those who would face greater inconvenience than stricter Lithuanian sanctions than a ban on visiting one of the Druskininkai spas during the weekend. of week.

A few years ago, in response to the so-called Magnickis Law adopted in 2017, an attempt was made to present a new draft amendment to the Law on Economic Sanctions and Other International Sanctions, which would establish national sanctions for foreigners who are prohibited from entering Lithuania .

Article 515 of the Code of Administrative Offenses of the Republic of Lithuania should also be modified, which stipulates that “the violation of international sanctions applied in the Republic of Lithuania carries a fine of 200 to 6,000 euros”. However, this means that administrative liability only applies to violations of international sanctions.

These amendments would allow foreigners who commit serious human rights violations, are corrupt, or are involved in money laundering to freeze their funds and other financial assets held in banks operating in Lithuania, and would allow individuals and companies that operate in Lithuania they have commercial relations with these foreigners or companies in which these foreigners are the beneficiaries. This would mean that liability would apply not only to international sanctions violations, such as those of the EU, but also to national sanctions.

Reservations are also possible

However, these proposals, which sounded 2 years ago to amend the law on economic sanctions, have been relaxed: the current bill does not mention national measures, freezing of funds or assets, as this may formally contradict EU law . There is also disagreement as to whether such actions would be a matter of legal disagreement or a matter of political will. According to Chancellor Linas Linkevičius, the story is not over yet.

“As far as I know, there were two projects: one from the government and the other from the conservatives. Furthermore, the European Commission has asked us whether and to what extent Member States can apply national asset freeze measures. This answer was unequivocal: EU members cannot do it, arguing for the impact on the internal market. But these bills need to be examined further, with legal conclusions, one of which, as far as I know, is stuck in the Commission of Foreign Affairs “, emphasized Delfi. Linkevičius emphasized that this was the case in Belarus, when it comes to human rights violations and consider stricter measures.

“In my personal opinion, this needs to be discussed further, (on national sanctions) there should be an opportunity, although there is no European practice, but logically, I emphasize, logically, there could be reservations, limited introduction against people in third countries “said L. Linkevičius.

The new Seimas and the approval of the new government could find out too. But what good is all this if the Lukashenko regime, at least for the moment, does not seem concerned about EU sanctions and continues to issue threats?

“On the one hand, the other way out is to do nothing. Now the process is underway and we shouldn’t stop, we have Lithuanian diplomacy for that. It is understandable that there is a deadlock now and I do not believe in quick fixes at the EU level, especially when, going back to what I have said before about fundamental things: Europe has a whip but not a gingerbread, because the West has very strong relations. weak with Belarus.

On the other hand, the EU is waiting for Moscow to calm the processes in Belarus, even though Moscow is a participant in the processes, not a moderator. However, Lukashenko, as he becomes increasingly dependent on the Kremlin, may also be reluctant to play the role of governor, and when his seat burns out, he may need balance and room to maneuver to face west. And then we can have a gingerbread: relaxation of sanctions, withdrawal, in exchange for our demands ”, expected L. Kasčiūnas.