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Winners
Freedom Party (LP).
Before the elections, it was logical to assume that this party is focused on long-term success, that it will not come during this election. The ratings encouraged LP to be cautious. His strategy was to carry the banner of liberalism that strongly polarized society. Although education was identified as a key priority, there was still more public talk about soft drugs and LGBT issues.
The most surprising thing is that good results have been obtained in the regions. There, LP did not fight for victory, but his list almost everywhere consistently garnered more than 5% of the vote. In Vilnius and Kaunas, it finished in the top three most popular lists in almost all districts, in Klaipeda – in the top four. The activity of the big cities allowed to achieve a great result. After four years of “peasant” insurance policies, the Freedom Party has emphasized freedoms and opportunities, focusing more on presenting its ideas in debate than cutting off competitors, and these factors may also have been important in achieving the score of 9%.
In the second round, the candidates of the Freedom Party will face 12 fights against the candidates of the Union of the Fatherland (TS-LKD). Perhaps even the support of the “peasants” for the conservatives can be expected, since their general attitudes are closer to those of those in power than the LP. This opponent is unlikely to be in favor of the Freedom Party; many voters will likely choose a less polarizing alternative.
Labor Party (DP)
9.5% of the votes, an unsurprising result. It is surprising that the “workers” had enough of this result to rank third. Its result shows that the electorate’s memory is short and the electorate does not definitively rule out those who were once overboard. Before these elections, only the Lithuanian Union of Greens and Peasants (LVŽS) managed to return to the Seimas with a faction after losing its parliamentary representation.
Its result shows that the electorate’s memory is short and the electorate does not definitively rule out those who were once overboard.
Also keep in mind that a strong pre-election state grant, which was pending 10 years ago, helped achieve a good result. The campaign was very active and paid off. A spoonful of tar is just a modest sight in single-member districts. Even the most famous politician on the list, Antanas Guoga, did not make it to the second round. Given that only two PD politicians will fight in the second round, the end result will certainly be more modest than third place in terms of number of seats.
Union Patria (TS-LKD)
Almost a quarter of the votes, 24 seats in the Seimas and the mathematical possibility of having an absolute majority after the second round. Although this scenario does not seem realistic, in any case, the Conservatives still have a hypothetical possibility of forming a government after the second round. The most successful contributors to this are the successful emergence of a coalition of potential partners, the Freedom Party (LP) and the Liberal Movement (LRLS).
Of course, the second round can bring a lot of confusion. In a third of the 54 counties, TS-LKD will fight its potential partners. Voters in the 26 constituencies where the Conservatives will fight the “peasants” will have the most influence over the true winner of the election.
Voters in the 26 constituencies where the Conservatives will fight the “peasants” will have the most influence over the true winner of the election.
There is a lot of conservative optimism based on the second round. Voters in the three main Lithuanian cities gave the victory to the TS-LKD list: no other party won in the electoral districts of the main cities. Important victories were also obtained at Dzūkija, Suwalki and Seaside. In single-member constituencies, however, they will have to overcome the traditionally unsuccessful second-round syndrome.
Electoral averages
Liberal Movement (LRLS)
The result obtained – 6.79% corresponds to the pre-electoral qualifications. The group crossed the barrier quite confidently and entered the Seimas. After a modest result in the municipal and European elections last year, it is certainly not a bad result.
Pragmatism led to success. Although the invitation and reconciliation of Viktor Pranckietis with the four members of the Parliamentarians of the Liberal Movement, who usually support the LVŽS, was highly criticized before the elections, all of them will participate in the second round (except Jonas Liesis, who only competed in the list). The Liberal Movement could win a maximum of 15 seats in the Seimas. In major cities, the results are more modest than four years ago, although three LRLS candidates will participate in the second round of elections in Vilnius and Klaipeda.
Union of Greens and Peasants of Lithuania (LVŽS)
The result of the elections: 17.5% of the votes is quite good. Especially considering the very modest performance in last year’s elections – third place in the 2019 municipal and European Parliament elections. The COVID-19 pandemic strengthened positions and voters were not punished for the now deteriorating situation controlling the virus.
The LVŽS list was one of the two most popular parties in almost all electoral districts. 32 party candidates reached the second round of the elections, 26 of whom will fight the TS-LKD. Therefore, this fight will determine the final winner of the elections.
The “campesinos” managed to demonstrate to left-wing voters that they were the main alternative to the Union of the Fatherland.
The “campesinos” managed to demonstrate to left-wing voters that they were the main alternative to the Union of the Fatherland. But after the elections, forming a ruling majority even after ending up in leadership positions would not be easy. The most favorable option for LVŽS leaders would be a center-left union. Mathematically, the maximum result of “peasants” can be 48 seats in the Seimas, DP-11, so the LLRA is left without the left-wing Social Democratic coalition (LSDP). Although G. Paluckas talks about the possibility of working in such a coalition, the experience of the last elections shows that it would not be so easy to reach an agreement, the conditions for the “peasants” would be high.
Losers
Polish Lithuanian Election Campaign (LLRA-KŠS)
There was little shortage before reaching the Seimas: 4.82% of the vote was received. The party has survived similar situations several times. This time, no more. The reasons are complex. The younger generation of representatives of national minorities in the regions do not necessarily vote in the same way as their parents. Some Russian-speaking voters were probably drawn to the Labor Party as well. The scandals may have had an impact; even a small number of frustrated people are important with such fragile support.
This is probably the beginning of the end and we will see the LLRA-KŠS again as a strong party in a region at the municipal level and winning several single-member electoral districts.
Certainly, the action of Andrius Tapinas, with which Valdemaras Tomaševskis was very angry at the press conference, should not be given credit. The number of damaged ballots was even lower this year than four years ago. The most interesting thing is that the party leadership did not even feel that this time it would be overboard. Otherwise, the “safe” districts would probably not be entrusted to little-known politicians, and political heavyweights like Jaroslav Narkevičius were sent to symbolically run in Žaliakalnis against Gabriel Landsbergis.
It may be possible to return to the Seimas for one more period in the future with less voter turnout, but this does not appear to be a very realistic scenario. This party can hardly offer a new image of its own and reach the top. This is probably the beginning of the end and we will see the LLRA-KŠS again as a strong party in a region at the municipal level and winning several single-member electoral districts.
Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (LSDP)
No constituency turned red on the electoral map. This is in contrast to the European elections, where the LSDP dominated in many constituencies in the regions and suddenly came second in the elections. What is often very important in elections is not very useful: the support of the mayors of the municipalities and their LSDP has up to 15. Getting 9% of the vote and winning eight seats in the Seimas indicates that it could have been achieved plus.
The turn of courage initiated by the social democratic leader Gintautas Paluckas towards a more radical left could have been another reason for the defeat.
One of the main reasons for the failure is that, once again, the party performed poorly in the cities. After the elections to the European Parliament, it was possible to rejoice in the recovered Šiauliai, which was once the citadel of the party: 7,800 votes and first place. Now, in two city constituencies combined, the LSDP list received fewer than 3,000 votes.
The turn of courage initiated by the Social Democratic leader Gintautas Paluckas towards a more radical left could have been another reason for the defeat. In March, the Social Democrats lost the LVŽS due to left-wing votes. The electoral campaign was meager, as if the voters were tired of the TS-LKD and the “peasant” alternatives and necessarily elected the Social Democrats.
The opportunity for the rehabilitation of the Social Democrats will remain in the second round. The maximum number of seats in the Seimas can go up to 21. Exceeding the “workers” in the number of seats and staying in third place is a really possible mission. The Social Democrats also do not lose their importance: the “peasants” could not form a coalition without them even in the case of a complete victory in the second round. However, how risky it is to work with “peasants” is demonstrated by the fact that none of their former coalition partners will be in the Seimas.
Lithuanian Social Democratic Labor Party (LSDDP)
The election result is not surprising. However, it is still difficult to imagine the Seimas without political veterans such as Juozas Bernatonis, Gediminas Kirkilas or Irena Šiaulienė.
However, LSDDP involvement has done the dirty work for former friends of the party now gathered in LSDP; it is likely that three percent of the votes they received would have been for the LSDP, speaking of the party’s solid third place in the elections. LSDDP will likely have multiple Seimas seats, but the prospects for the future are bleak.
„Liberty and Justice “(LT)
Remigijus Žemaitaitis has excellent opportunities to work at Seimas. However, judging by what happened, it can be said that these elections symbolically ended the path of “Order and Justice” in national politics. It was difficult to expect otherwise, when the process of joining political forces was very chaotic and the “three musketeers”, without a common interest in entering the Seimas, were united by few.
Matas Baltrukevičius is an Associate Analyst at the Vilnius Institute for Policy Analysis
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