This choice is a turning point: a force has an unprecedented opportunity and must seize it

As can be seen from the electoral results, the National Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD), which received the most votes in the first round, will have a total of 18 clashes with liberal forces (Freedom Party and Movement Liberal) and 26 clashes with the Lithuanian Greens and Peasants (LVŽS).

Kaunas may weigh in the other direction

According to Delfi, a political scientist and associate professor at the Vilnius University Institute of International Relations and Political Science (VU TSPMI), Associate Professor Mažvydas Jastramskis, the votes of the residents of the temporary capital can significantly correct the available image.

“Kaunas will be the essential. There are ‘peasants’ against the Union of the Fatherland, and the distribution of mandates there can greatly change the balance between the center-right and the center-left,” he said.

As Kaunas already distinguished itself from other major cities in the first round of elections, the head of the Baltic Research, sociologist dr. Rasa Ališauskienė.

“One thing is that the peasants did quite well in the big cities, according to those who came out in the second round. For example, it cannot be compared to Vilnius. In Vilnius, the majority of single-member candidates are candidates from the TS-LKD and the Freedom Party. And in Kaunas there are mostly TS-LKD and “peasants”. Slightly different, Vilnius and Klaipeda remained the most liberal, so to speak. And Kaunas is so, I would say, divided, ”he said.

R. Ališauskienė noted that four years ago the second round of elections adjusted the results very strongly.

“Then the Unión de la Patria had a little more, but microscopically, almost the same with the LVŽS. And after the second round, the predominance of the” peasants “was significant. See this time, who entered the second round It could be a scenario. But now that the National Union is leading more clearly, it may be a scenario in which they will increase even more, “predicted R. Ališauskienė.

Ignas Zokas, the director of Spinter Research, had no doubt that the final image would fit.

“The previous elections show the same, that the result has improved a lot. On the other hand, here is mostly arithmetic, how many of those candidates are there. It is likely that, despite the clear success of the conservatives in the first round, those candidates who are supported by left-wing parties, if they go with a conservative candidate, tend to have better positions. People like the conservative love or don’t like the party very much and tend to vote for something else, but not for the conservatives, ”said I. Zokas.

The same card can work to the detriment of the “peasants”

However, Jastramski questioned whether this could happen again in 2016, where a significant number voted against the Conservatives. According to the political scientist, such an opinion is not entirely accurate, because four years ago the “campesinos” card was also a novelty.

“We voted for a new party that had not been there before, for change, for its popular leaders. This now would not work in favor of the “peasants.” No way. Because he has been in power for four years. We won’t be tied to parties here.

Let’s talk about the principle that if in the second round there is a particular tendency to support the ruling party less and seek some more moderate option, then it is precisely to the right that there are advantages, because they come from the opposition. That’s one thing here. And in general, it seems to me that the percentage of votes collected from the National Union does not seem so disagreeable that the same thing happens again in 2016, ”said M. Jastramskis.

In addition, according to the interlocutor, the situation is different now because the gap between the first two parties is greater in favor of the conservatives. R. Ališauskienė also agreed with that.

But it will be clear that the ‘peasants’ will not repeat in the second round in 2016, because fewer of those candidates came out. So much so that, like the party that was in power, this result is not bad. And the conservatives really have a lot of potential this time, but how are they going to be able to mobilize those voters who did not vote for their candidate in the first round, and not vote for that second, is a great question here, “said the sociologist.

In turn, I. Zokas offered to watch not only the last Seimas elections, but also the presidential ones. The sociologist did not rule out the possibility that there were indeed “no” but “no” voters.

“It shows not only in 2016. results, but the results of the presidential elections also show it. When Šimonytė and Nausėda came out, supported by the conservatives, it could be said that they crushed her. Not because he was an extremely popular candidate, but because he spoke out against a candidate backed by the conservatives.

If we project from the last elections, which took place a good year ago, then apparently the conservative ceiling issue has not gone anywhere, and it is likely that, especially in smaller cities or rural areas, anti-conservative candidates tend to have stronger positions. But again, each case must be analyzed on its own merits, as there is a question of personalities in some places. That can’t be underestimated either, ”said I. Zokas.

Another unknown is turnout and what voters see as prime minister

Voter participation will also play an important role in the final results, emphasized R. Ališauskienė. The sociologist questioned that those whose candidates for the second round did not attend would come after two weeks of voting.

And if it comes, how will it behave? Two weeks is enough. Who else is going to influence that now does not want to start talking about a coalition and who can have a majority, although the parties say it is too early to form them. It will also affect the people, because in practice it will be what the election campaign itself was partly about: who will be the prime minister. We have seen both during the debate and at the polls what the next Prime Minister was going to see. However, it seems to people that if the coalition is center-right, it is probably Šimonytė, if it is center-left, it is probably still Skvernelis. This factor can also influence when choosing what to vote in the second round, ”shared R. Ališauskienė.

That part of the voters who voted for the “peasants”, and especially for the Socdemus, simply may not go to the second round, said M. Jastramskis as well.

Meanwhile, I. Zokas emphasized that the behavior of those who came would not necessarily be predictable either. According to him, if a person supported a particular left party in the first round, it does not mean that they will support another force from the same political spectrum in the second round as well.

“Personality appeal will play a decisive role,” predicted I. Zokas.

Called a broken election

The political scientist of the VU TSPMI named the support for the liberal forces as the uniqueness of these elections.

“It just came to our knowledge then. It was there little by little. In Vilnius city, there was such a thing in the last election, but to the extent that now, this is definitely the first time.

Sure, turnout was lower than average, but even with that in mind, here are some groundbreaking picks. Even after looking at the multiple members, the right has not received as many votes in Lithuania for more than 20 years, ”noted M. Jastramskis.

When asked if he could predict how tense the fighting would be in those one-member states where only right-wing conservatives and liberals would meet, Jastramski said some predictions could be made based on the results of the first round.

“I still think that the Conservatives have an advantage over the bigger party. From what I’ve seen, there are certainly some districts where the advantage is great: the Conservatives more than 30 percent and the Freedom Party less than 20 percent. Where the gap is already in the first round and the candidate received more than 30 percent. votes, it should beat the Conservatives.

Of course, there may be another surprise, and the personality factor also appears here, ”said the political scientist.

However, he does not see the logic in the deliberations that the conservatives should concentrate all their forces in the struggle in those single-member states where they would compete with the left.

“Coalitions are coalitions, but conservatives need to take as many single-member seats as possible to have more seats than the winning force that other parties will change. It seems strange to advise not to focus where you can win, but to focus elsewhere where you can win. You need to focus everywhere. I think the Conservatives will try to bring in as many individual members as possible. Of course, a friendlier relationship can be with the Liberals in Vilnius. But here they definitely won’t share gifts and they shouldn’t share them. ” said M. Jastramskis.

There will be a fierce fight

R. Ališauskienė also agreed that the party should not think about the coalition when fighting for the number of seats in the Seimas.

“Every county is important now. Someone cannot be expelled or removed here, even if they have the same political spectrum (candidates – Delphi), but in this case they are still competing. In places where there are no candidates, one or the other may support candidates closest to them: conservative liberals, liberal conservatives, leftist peasants. Wherever the same spectrum goes, the fighting will be fierce in one way or another, ”predicted R. Ališauskienė.

However, according to I. Zoko, several elections showed that the support of specific parties or candidates is a poor card.

“The second round is purely single-member games, which will certainly focus on single-member districts. What normally doesn’t work is the support of that party: you lost, which parties will you support?

Lithuania 30 m. live in a democratic environment. If I voted for Party C, which didn’t advance to the second round, telling that party’s candidate why voting too often doesn’t work at all. As a result, there should probably be direct work in the constituency to convince voters that I am a better option, ”said the sociologist.