Biden’s chances of winning are high, but Democrats are wary of polls: why?

As the Democratic Party primary marathon drew to a close in the spring, Laura Hubka pondered hard: How to sell Biden to voters in rural Iowa.

This Democratic activist complained to those around him that Democrats had sidelined a slew of younger candidates and threw the old and current Biden issue into the fight against Trump.

Hubka herself supported former Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, thinking that an uninspiring candidate like Biden would not defend Iowa from Trump. The woman was already preparing for another defeat.

But in a few months, Biden’s chances of winning are very good; He and the Democrats may celebrate a guaranteed victory in three weeks, because in recent days, support for the former vice president is growing like leaven.

Biden has a nearly double-digit lead over Trump nationally, and major states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin already look safe for Democrats.

Victories are also likely in Florida, perhaps even Texas or Georgia, though the latter two states have until recently been considered Republican strongholds. However, Hubka does not believe in the polls.

Bear service – pandemic

“I don’t want to believe them, I don’t want others to believe. I don’t want people to stay home and not vote, like when they thought Hillary Clinton would actually win. I don’t feel like Biden’s lead is 14-15 percent. points. He doesn’t lead that much, “says my activist.

Of course, many polls testify to J. Biden’s significant advantage – that D. Trump’s actions and rhetoric are simply angry at the voters. When the president became infected with COVID-19, support for him did not increase, but began to collapse even faster.

According to analysts, it is also very important that J. Biden even 12 percent. He points ahead of the President of the United States in terms of popularity with independent voters, whose votes determine the winner in key fluctuating states.

However, Larry Sabato, a political analyst, agrees that Hubka is not wrong in saying that Biden’s position would be far worse if it weren’t for the Trump administration in dealing with the coronavirus pandemic.

“Polls don’t reflect what’s really going on. He (J. Biden, ed.) Will mess up 14 to 16 percent. Point advantage. No chance. We’re too divided.

Many of Trump’s supporters after the first debate and the news that he was infected with the coronavirus were very disappointed and simply ignored the pollsters. This has already happened. “I think Biden will win, but certainly not because of that difference,” said L. Sabato, director of the Center for Policy at the University of Virginia.

In Washington, Republican strategists also acknowledged a few months ago that the election was turning into a referendum on Trump’s failure to control the pandemic, a referendum in which he loses.

L. Sabato: Many of Trump’s supporters after the first debate and the news that he was infected with coronavirus were very disappointed and just ignored the pollsters. This has already happened. I think Biden will win, but certainly not because of that difference.

“It just came to our knowledge without a pandemic. If equity markets were still very high and the unemployment rate was around 3 percent, the challenge for Biden would be much greater.

But COVID-19 changed everything. On January 1, everyone around me believed that Short was the favorite. The economy did well and he, as president, certainly could take all the credit.

But then the economy collapsed. In addition, there were protests of police brutality, a scandal at Trump’s incredible recklessness when the White House became a hotbed for the coronavirus. The debate has also turned into a complete disaster for Trump. Some would say it is karma, ”said L. Sabato.

J. Biden doesn’t bother anyone

When black George George Floyd was killed in police arrests in Minneapolis in May and Trump began to poke fun at the Black Lives Matter movement, American youth turned en masse to support Biden, though they didn’t feel particularly attached.

Let’s say Katybeth Davis lives in a working community south of Detroit that actively voted for Trump four years ago. All of Michigan later elected the current president, even though he outpointed Clinton by just 10.7 thousand. votes.

But now polls already bear witness to Biden’s 8 percent dominance. Davis, who was only interested in politics this year, intends to vote for her – the woman was moved by Black Lives Matter.

This move, according to Davis, helped mobilize younger Americans much more than the coronavirus: “There are many more such voters, especially those who earn less. They see that everything we have worked for is at stake: social justice, we can lose the equality of marriages, the rights of women.

I think women now support Joe because they realize that abortion can be forbidden. What is at stake is our diversity, racial equality, gender equality ”.

Biden is also a consistent and increasingly leading state in a major Florida state. If the Democratic candidate won here, Trump would have little hope of winning the election.

Sociological research shows that voters under the age of 30 will elect J. Biden much more often. It is not enough if 47% actually promised to vote four years ago. of those Americans, there are now up to 63 percent.

Biden is also a consistent and increasingly leading state in a major Florida state. If the Democratic candidate won here, Trump would have little hope of winning the election.

Clearly, Republicans, Trump supporters at least, are calling for the grim polls to be ignored. Supposedly they are another fake news For example, Biden is reportedly no more popular than Clinton in 2016, who lost.

“This is not true,” says Sabato. – Biden’s situation is much better than Clinton’s, mainly because it does not cause such negative emotions in people. So it was also possible to talk about simple sexism, but Hillary’s personality also got stuck. Biden doesn’t bother anyone. “

Believe in victory but still scared

And other trends are favorable for J. Biden. It has been said many times that older people have turned away from Trump; They only fear the coronavirus and the unfavorable fight of the presidential administration against the pandemic. For the first time in two decades, the majority of voters 65 and older support the Democrat before the election.

Women are another surprise. Up to 27 percent. more women choose J. Biden over D. Trump. Finally, Biden’s chances are increasing even as we weigh the options of the middle-aged men who voted for Trump en masse in 2016.

African Americans have always been an active supporter of Democratic candidates. But this time, Biden’s team needs them, unlike in 2016, to come vote more abundantly overall.

All of this is more important in several key states. One is Wisconsin, where Barack Obama had a solid majority burned out by Clinton’s defeat to the current president. Then the polls showed him 6 percent. And by the way, Biden now leads the polls with a similar difference.

Charles Franklin, a director at Marquette, a Wisconsin-based sociological firm, agrees that polls should be treated with caution, but also adds that the situation is different from 2016.

In particular, the proportion of voters who say they have not yet decided what to vote for is half that of four years ago. Additionally, polls showed that many voters disliked Clinton as much as Trump; many did not vote.

“It just came to our notice then. Clinton raised 250,000. Votes less than Obama in 2012, but Short only slightly outperformed Mitt Romney.

L. Hubka: I’m tired because I wake up every day because of what else Trumpas can think of. It’s bad for me to think about what he will do to win.

Given what Democratic voters think of Trump, I don’t expect the same situation: They are very positive about Biden, but they are particularly negative about Trump. “Short is the Democrats’ best argument,” Franklin said.

Finally, although the size of the electoral base loyal to the president remains stable, Trump fails to attract new voters, which is not surprising, since it is difficult to find people who have been satisfied in the last four years.

Of course, we must always remember that we are talking about 2020 and that there are still three weeks before the elections. When such political drama is in full swing, this period is like an eternity, and Trump’s unpredictable plans must be considered: He has already asked armed activists to observe the elections.

“Now I am more confident that Biden can win, but we don’t know what will happen the next day. I’m tired because I wake up every day to survive whatever Trump comes up with. It’s bad for me to think only about what he will do to win, ”says L. Hubka.