The core of the Seimas elections in multinominals: a quarter of the votes gave the victory to the TS-LKD, 5 percent. only 6 parties crossed the line

In the multinominal constituency, a total of 6 parties passed the 5 percent ballot, according to preliminary data from the Central Electoral Commission (CEC).

Thus, half of the Seimas -70 seats- in the next legislature will look like this: 22 conservatives, 16 peasants, 9 “workers” and Social Democrats, 8 members of the Freedom Party and 6 members of the Liberal Movement.

The other side of the Seimas will become clear after the elections result in single-member elections, with 36 Conservatives taking the lead in the second round.

At 6 am, the data for 16 electoral districts for 1989 had not yet been counted.

Ingrida Šimonytė received the majority of the priority votes, more than 110 thousand, among the TS-LKD, she almost surpassed the party president Gabrielė Landsbergis. The party raised a total of 24.43 percent. votes.

The LVŽS leader trio remained unchanged after qualifying: Saulius Skvernelis, Ramūnas Karbauskis and Aurelijus Veryga. The party raised a total of 17.76 percent. voters’ votes.

Approximate results of the Labor Party and the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party: 9.63 and 9.35 percent, respectively. The Freedom Party represented 8.71 percent. votes, for the Liberal Movement – 6.74 percent, 5.45 pm announced by the CEC.

Girnius: There were almost no elections in Lithuania, the debate is deplorable

Critic Kęstutis Girnius explained in a special Delfi program dedicated to the elections that some parties performed better in these elections than they probably expected themselves.

“I still can’t say why Lithuania voted, but the center-right turned out much better than they thought. Conservatives spoke of forming atypical coalitions, leading to suspicion that their polls also showed that helping was not so good. But now that They have raised much more than expected, they will clearly have a majority when the results come from the big cities.

But it is obvious that both Kaunas and Vilnius will be theirs. The surprise is the Freedom Party, because it was not clear if it would overcome the five percent barrier, but it did, so there will already be three parties from which they can form a coalition, ”says K. Girnius. According to him, the results may have been determined by the change of activity of the population, for example, in smaller cities.

“I think a lot depends on the activity. The people, who are more inclined to support the left, voted less, perhaps on such a gloomy day that they simply did not want to go to the constituency. Second, I think those things too could have accumulated, that if the Freedom Party had not crossed the five percent barrier, the center-right coalition would not have been possible.

And now that they’ve done it so hard, the chances are high. On the other hand, I think that in the second round in Kaunas and Vilnius, the center-right will win a larger share of the votes, but it is too early to determine what the divide between urban and rural areas will be. But it is a very sad sign that there is such a clear division between an urban area where people live better and a rural area where people live poorer.

When asked how he valued the performance of the Social Democrats, the political scientist said that it was much more difficult for them to capture the attention of the media.

“I think that division really did play a bit of that role, some of the stars withdrew. Also, his party chair, A. Paluck, was not a member of Seimas; it was more difficult for him to get media attention. On the other hand, Paluck himself was surprised by the performance of the Labor Party. I think the Socdems will get more votes. “

According to him, voters did not even see an actual election due to the focus on coronavirus and quarantine issues.

“There were almost no elections in Lithuania, because there was the same coronavirus, quarantine, there were fewer meetings with the voters, so this is an important moment. Second, that debate was deplorable. “

When asked if we could expect surprises in the second round, the interviewee assured that there would probably be no intrigues.

“In the second round, the main question is how many will win in the villages and how many in the cities will win.”

There are several explanations for the rise of “workers”

In the multi-member constituency, the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (LSDP) received less support than the Labor Party, and Gintautas Paluckas himself admitted on election night that he was surprised by such a result.

However, the director of Baltic Research, sociologist dr. Rasa Ališauskienė noted that polls conducted before the elections showed that the door of the Seimas would be open for “employees”.

“One thing, the polls carried out three weeks ago showed that they are entering the Seimas and that they are choosing quite well around 3,4,5 seats. So much so that the Labor Party is more popular not in the big cities, but more in the district, in the smaller towns.

The leader, on the other hand, has influence. The leader of any party has influence. And yet, three weeks before the election, 8 percent of those who said they would go (vote – Delphi). He still doubted which party to vote for. Those three weeks were, of course, very important: who was driving, who was agitated. It seems that the Labor Party severely bit the Samogitian Boat and justice, ”said R. Ališauskienė.

The sociologist noted that less than a month before the Seimas elections, the Samogitian party still looked very good.

“But it was one of those parties where more than a third of the electorate was able to change their decision and vote, above all, for the ‘workers'”, explained the sociologist about the success of the party.

Did the name donate a ticket to the Seimas for the Freedom Party?

The results of the Freedom Party may have been a surprise. Even before the elections, there were a number of predictions that the newly formed political force would not exceed 5%. cartels. However, voters supported the party not only in the big cities but also in the regions.

“It just came to our attention then. The following is a bit about names. Look, now there are social workers, Socdems and workers. Not all people study very carefully who is who. It’s confusing. The Ship Party and Freedom and Justice they also have the same word “freedom.” It is also a question of where the success of the Freedom Party is in small areas or small towns.

As if liberal-minded voters tend to vote in the largest cities, the Freedom Party is perhaps the most extreme on the program. This is a question of how they managed to attract voters there, “commented R. Ališauskienė.

When asked if, in her opinion, the success of this party was due to the confusion of the people, the sociologist replied: “It could be somewhere. I can’t say that directly at once, but traditionally, in the smaller cities, especially in the west of Lithuania, more people support Order and Justice, which is inherited by Freedom and Justice. “

The sociologist noted that R. Žemaitaitis’s party performed poorly this time, even in those parts of the country where it generally received the most sympathy from voters.

“It just came to our attention then. This is one of the questions here, – said R. Ališauskienė.

The failure of the Social Democrats is left to the left

Before the election, political scientists also predicted a good performance of the LSDP in the election. It was considered that the Social Democrats’ card could become a non-participation in the constant bustle of “peasants” and conservatives. During the last Seimas elections, this card saved the LVS when the people chose a “new” alternative party. But the miracle did not happen.

According to R. Ališauskienė, this could have led several parties to put pressure on the left.

“On the other side are the ‘peasants’, the social democrats and the ‘workers’. If we put them in a pile, that side still comes out a bit more than the right. But redistribution is like that. Let’s say that it is not so difficult for people to vote for a peasant or a social democrat, it does not seem so different to them, ”shared R. Ališauskienė.

The sociologist said she was not surprised by the results of the Social Democrats and that the situation could change after the second round.

“They still have a second round. In the second round, the Social Democrat can often be more palatable than a right-wing candidate. It will depend, of course, on how they will be able to mobilize, ”said the interlocutor.

According to her, the votes of the Social Democrats in the first round were crushed by the “workers”.

Smaller workers and parties. Remember that about a third of the votes of the people who voted still disappear, because in practice the parties that will enter the Seimas gather around 70 percent. vote according to the current situation. It means about 30 percent. – smaller batches of less than 5%. That’s a lot, it would be a blessing for the party if it were like that, ”explained R. Ališauskienė the electoral riddle of Seimas.