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Delfi has already announced that on Friday the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs demanded that Lithuania and Poland reduce the number of their employees in Belarusian embassies. This was confirmed by a spokesman for the Belarusian Foreign Ministry, Anatoly Glaz.
“Due to the undoubted destructive activities of the aforementioned countries, it is proposed to reduce the number of diplomats in the diplomatic missions of the respective countries in Belarus by the ninth day of October,” the representative said.
As A. Glazas explained, 14 diplomats must stay in the Lithuanian Embassy instead of 25, and 18 will stay in Poland’s place. In addition, the Belarusian Ministry of Foreign Affairs also reminds the Belarusian ambassadors to Lithuania and Poland in Minsk for consultations. “The ambassadors of Lithuania and Poland in Belarus are invited to follow this example,” said Glaz. What do these “proposals” mean in diplomatic language and how should Lithuania behave?
The last step before disconnecting
Tomas Janeliūnas, a professor at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University, told Delfi that expressions such as “call from ambassadors for consultations” in diplomatic language mean a not very strong protest.
“This is the last resort before diplomats are withdrawn or diplomatic relations are broken. This means that relations between states are very bad and, in football terms, a yellow card is shown before being taken off the field. It is definitely stronger than a diplomatic note, not something specific related to a specific action “, said the political scientist, without ruling out the possibility that the relationship deteriorates even more and even more serious consequences can be expected. Such could be the breakdown of diplomatic relations, which has not happened with Lithuania’s neighbors for the last 30 years.
According to T. Janeliūnas, due to the time chosen to report to Lithuania and Poland, it is possible to interpret it differently: Friday night, end of the working day. However, according to Janeliūnas, such action could be expected from the Aliaksandr Lukashenko regime, considering that Lithuania and Poland have been publicly declaring that they do not recognize Lukashenko as the legitimate president of Belarus for some time. On the other hand, the ambassadors of Lithuania and Poland were among the most active in Belarus in protecting Belarusian opposition figures.
“This attempt to neutralize the embassies of Lithuania and Poland is a logical step on the part of the regime, we had to wait. It may also be a sign that the damage done by the aforementioned embassies by disseminating information to the West through public and diplomatic channels is greater than such deterioration of diplomatic relations, ”added T. Janeliūnas.
How do Lithuania and Poland react?
According to the expert, the traditional path in such a situation would be symmetrical: withdrawing diplomats for “consultations” and condemning or regretting the actions of the Belarusian regime.
“But we cannot do it, because maybe it is necessary for the ambassador to be there. Clearly, Belarus may no longer provide services to embassies, that is, without protection, the Lukashenko regime did so with the US embassies and the United Kingdom when it lifted protection and stopped providing public services.
However, if the Lithuanian and Polish diplomatic services believe they need people there, they may not react to Belarus’ actions. It would be more rational, because while we can, we continue working: it is important to know what is happening there, we need to be in the shoes of our people, it is more important than following diplomatic protocol, “said the political scientist.
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