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On September 23, both the United States and the EU declared Lukashenko President of Belarus.
“The United States cannot regard Aliaksandr Lukashenko as the legitimately elected leader of Belarus,” a State Department spokesman said.
The EU Commissioner also expressed this position Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Joseph Borrell. “It just came to our attention then. We consider the August 9 elections to be unfair,” he said.
„Reuters“ / „Scanpix“ nuotr./Josepas Borrelis
“We do not recognize Lukashenko as the legitimate president of Belarus,” Borrell added.
But what do these statements mean in practice?
A changing trajectory?
In the run-up to the Belarusian presidential elections, the dialogue between Washington and Minsk was the strongest in decades.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who visited Belarus in February, was a senior official who had come to the country for the past 20 years. His visit coincided with the deterioration of relations between Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin, writes RFE / RL.
AFP / „Scanpix“ nuotr./Aliaksandras Lukašenka, Mike’as Pompeo
The focus was on Belarus’ “sovereignty”, energy supply and the US desire to “normalize” relations without leaving Moscow.
Pompeo said it was “an era of high-powered competition and the opportunity to compete for influence.” “We want to be here,” he said in Minsk.
But after the August 9 elections, when the crackdowns on peaceful Belarusian protesters began, US officials called for an end to the violence and a peaceful solution to the crisis. A few weeks later, the US State Department announced that it did not recognize Lukashenko as president.
Examples from American history
At the beginning of the last century, the administration of US President Woodrow Wilson refused to recognize Victorian Huert as President of Mexico. This problem was solved when Huerta fled to her native Spain.
After that, the US generally did not take the lead in recognizing the governance claims of other countries when competing for it.
“Scanpix” / AP nuotr./Woodrow Wilsonas
Experts point to the example of Honduras in 2008. Washington then waited for an assessment by the Union of American States before accepting that President Manuel Zelaya had been the victim of an illegal military coup, writes RFE / RL.
Two years later, Washington did not take decisive action in Central Asia until Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev fled to Russia and later settled in Belarus.
However, the most recent example is Washington’s relations with Venezuela and de facto President Nicolás Maduro – can be much more informative.
VIDEO: Lithuanians have seen the crisis in Venezuela with their own eyes: they have never seen so much poverty and sadness
The United States and more than 50 countries have recognized opposition leader Juan Guaidó as the legitimate president of Venezuela since early 2019. Then, as the democratically elected president of the National Assembly, he attempted to form a transitional government until elections were held with international observers. . At the same time, Washington closed its embassy in the Venezuelan capital, Caracas.
Since then, the United States has tightened sanctions and visa restrictions, contributing to Venezuela’s economic chaos. But the United States has kept millions of dollars in humanitarian and development aid for both Venezuelans who have fled to neighboring countries and those who have remained in their homeland, reports Radio Free Europe.
Washington continues to demand free and fair elections in Venezuela.
EU-Eastern Partnership
Borel, stating that it does not recognize Lukashenko as president, said Brussels was “using all the tools at its disposal” to change the behavior of officials in Minsk.
One of the key tools is the Eastern Partnership of more than a decade, which promotes diplomatic and economic cooperation with Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Sakartvell, Moldova and Ukraine.
However, the forum is criticized for failing to define key issues such as common “security” and “values,” including democracy and human rights, and the top-down principle, which threatens to exclude elements outside of formal power structures. , type RFE / RL.
VIDEO: In Belarus, the behavior of a taxi driver became an Internet sensation – he saved a protester from the owners.
The EU statement does not specify the specific measures that will result from Lukashenko’s non-recognition, but states that the Community is “reviewing relations with Belarus”.
“When the EU says it wants to review cooperation, it means looking for where to interrupt the support programs or initiatives agreed with the government,” Giuseppe Fama, head of EU affairs at International Crisis Group (ICG), told RFE / RL.
However, EU spending on programs and initiatives related to Belarus remains low, even compared to other Eastern Partnership countries.
“Without the government’s non-recognition formality, in reality, the EU’s relations with Belarus will not be significantly affected as it is bad enough, albeit honestly,” Fama said, noting that the EU delegation in Minsk it had not been canceled.
However, according to Fama, this approach can help advance toward the ultimate goal of a more democratic vote.
“We just realized that the elections were not good. And it is important that they begin to recreate an environment in which free, fair, inclusive, democratic and legitimate elections can be held in Belarus, “said Fama.
VIDEO: 15/15: Putin and Lukashenko meet in Russia – in whose hands is the fate of Belarus?
Bypass Cyprus
Any path from the EU to Belarus must pass through the EU summit, which will be held in Brussels on October 1-2. In recent weeks, there has been much debate about whether EU leaders can agree on a sanctions list against Belarusian officials responsible for dealing with protesters.
Cyprus has reportedly blocked sanctions for the time being in order to gain greater EU support for energy issues in the Mediterranean conflict with Turkey.
SEE ALSO: ‘Small Sparks Can Cause Disaster’: What does tension mean in the Mediterranean?
“While all of this on the surface may seem like an important policy statement between the EU and the US, it shows a more interesting direction in international political practice,” said Professor James Ker-Lindsay of RFE / RL. In his opinion, this could be a way for the EU to “improve its ethical foreign policy”.
The peaceful protests in Belarus began on August 9 with the announcement of more than 80 percent. Aliaksandr Lukashenko was elected and reelected president. With thousands of Belarusians constantly taking to the streets, protests are brutally suppressed. Around 12,000 are reported to have already been arrested since the protests began. people detained in solitary confinement are tortured.
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