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On Wednesday, the Seimas Defense and National Security Committee (NSGK) heard information from state institutions about the situation in Belarus.
It was introduced to parliamentarians by the security services, the Department of Homeland Security and the Second Department of Operational Services.
Monitor the situation
National Defense Minister Raimundas Karoblis, who also participated in the closed-door session, later told reporters at the Seimas that Aliaksandr Lukashenko had ordered in August to strengthen the deployment of the Belarusian Armed Forces near the Polish border. and Lithuania.
“In addition to the regular exercises that usually take place at the Goza landfill and other locations near our border, there was additional capacity at that time. At present, this part, these exercises and the military activity near the borders have again declined precisely because of this aspect. Return to normal: military training proceeds normally. Now there is an exercise called “Slavianskoya bratstvo” with Russian and Belarusian soldiers. They are traditional, although the scale is a bit larger. However, they are exercises and we don’t really see any risk in those exercises, ”said the Minister of National Defense.
Luke April / 15min photo / Raimundas Karoblis
According to Karobli, there is currently no permanent presence of Russian troops in Belarus, except in two places since Soviet times.
There is also no indication that the Russian forces will remain in Belarus after the military exercise in Slavianska bratstvo.
“But really, the constant presence of the Russian military forces, if that decision were made, would be a great challenge for us in terms of security, for both Latvia and Poland, for NATO as a whole. Especially for Ukraine, because again the Russian forces would be for Ukraine and the North. Then additional solutions would be needed. However, at the moment we do not see concrete preparations for this. <...>. “If the current regime in Belarus is maintained, we will see a greater rapprochement between Russia and Belarus, the accession of Belarus to that common union and, in particular, the price that Mr. Lukashenko will pay to Russia for Russia’s support,” he said.
Scanpix / AP photo / Exercises in Belarus and Russia
Karoblis explained that the integration between the leadership of the Armed Forces of Belarus and Russia is very flexible, they are absolute allies. The minister said there are no big doubts about the current integration of Russia and Belarus.
“It’s just that again the armed forces are separate, usually both of them are doing separate exercises and training, even though the chain of command and control already exists,” he said.
Karoblis emphasized that an increase in the number of Russian troops in Belarus would be a new challenge for NATO. This would lead to new decisions, even in the field of military planning.
Don’t feel the changes in transit
Laurynas Kasčiūnas, vice president of the Seimas NSGK, said that during the committee meeting various aspects of the situation in Belarus were discussed.
According to him, the dynamics of the ongoing processes, the threats to Lithuania in military, economic and transit terms, as well as whether Russia is not trying and, if so, how to steal the results of the revolution in Belarus have been assessed. .
“On the one hand, there is no need to fear any real military threat, it doesn’t really exist. There are many demonstrative aspects in the military sense. Much corresponds to a certain seasonality, pre-planned exercise scenarios. It may only be exacerbated by certain elements. of the information war, ”said L. Kasčiūnas.
Photo by Lukas Balandis / 15min / Laurynas Kasčiūnas
The key question, in his opinion, is what and how will happen when Russia, taking advantage of Lukashenko’s growing dependence on her, tries to implement the Belarus absorption scenario.
According to L. Kasčiūnas, there were many famous conversations and statements about the transit of Belarusian cargo through Lithuania.
“But still, you see, economic dependence, really well-established relationships, a very strong position of the port of Klaipeda in this regard, the increase in the costs of the alternatives does not allow us to speak of some advances, changes that would change the situation,” he stressed the vice president of the Seimas NSGK.
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