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The situation in Belarus was discussed at a closed-door meeting of the Seimas Defense and National Security Committee (NSGC) on Wednesday. He heard information from various services.
Conservative Laurynas Kasčiūnas, vice president of the NSGK, who chaired the meeting, reported that despite the stormy rhetoric and threats from A. Lukashenko, the real consequences in military or economic terms are not visible.
“Today, there is no need to fear real military threats. There are many demonstrative aspects in the military sense. Much corresponds to a certain seasonality, previously planned exercise scenarios, only possibly exacerbated by certain elements of information warfare. (… )
The crucial question is what and how will happen if Russia, exploiting Lukashenko’s apparent dependence on them, tries to implement the absorption scenario (formal or de facto state of union). (…) Regarding the transit, all the other things: many conversations, famous statements, but still economic dependence, some well-established connections, a very strong position of the port of Klaipeda in this regard, the rising costs of the alternatives, so far they also do not allow to speak of any changes that would change the situation, “said L. Kasčiūnas.
The vice president of the NSGK said that Lukashenko’s inauguration as president in Belarus did not change the situation. The West does not recognize him as a legitimate leader
“With the West, this does not change the situation, because he is not recognized as a legitimate leader,” said L. Kasčiūnas.
The most worrying issue is the price of Russia’s support.
The Minister of National Defense Raimundas Karoblis, who participated in the meeting, stated that currently there is no exceptional military activity.
“It just came to our notice then. Military exercises and trainings are carried out all the time. If we look at the situation in mid-August, it was an advanced exercise after Mr. Lukashenko ordered the reinforcement of the deployment of the Belarusian Armed Forces. near the border between Poland and Lithuania.
In addition to the usual exercises that are normally performed, at Goza’s training ground, there was additional capacity at the time. At present, these exercises and military activity near the borders in this regard have declined again, returning much less to normal levels. Military training proceeds normally.
The exercise “Slavianska bratstvo” is currently being carried out, with the participation of Russian and Belarusian soldiers. They are traditional. Although their scale is a bit bigger, it is an exercise and we don’t really see any risk in them, “said R. Karoblis.
According to the minister, there has been no increase in the number of Russian troops permanently stationed in Belarus.
“Currently, there is no permanent presence of Russian troops in Belarus, except in two places since Soviet times, where the functions are much broader than this region. Other forces participate only in the case of exercises and other military events. At the moment , we see no signs of staying after these exercises (Russian soldiers). This should include logistical solutions and other related problems, “Karoblis said.
However, according to the minister, the continued presence of the Russian military forces, if such a decision were made, would be a major security challenge for both Lithuania and Poland, for NATO as a whole, especially for Ukraine, as the forces Russians would be from the north again.
“It just came to our attention then. However, at the moment we do not see concrete preparations for it. The danger is simply that we will see what happens next: if the current regime in Belarus remains, what will be the rapprochement between Russia and Belarus. That will be. it is what Belarus will unite in a common union, and specifically what will be the price that Mr. Lukashenko will pay for Russia’s support for him, “Karobli said.
According to the minister, the integration of the leaders of the Belarusian and Russian armed forces is already very flexible.
“It just came to our attention then. There are no serious doubts about the current integration of Russia and Belarus. Just because the armed forces are separate, they generally conduct separate exercises and training, despite the fact that there is already a common chain of command and control. ”Said R. Karoblis.
According to the minister, if the number of Russian troops in Belarus were to increase, it would be a new challenge for NATO.
“The solutions would mainly be military planning in various contexts. This is not a short and simple process,” said R. Karoblis.
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