Lithuania’s demise is growing: forecasting the Irish scenario

Thrown home

Data from the Lithuanian Department of Statistics shows that the number of immigrants arriving in Lithuania has increased recently, and most of them were not arriving foreigners, but Lithuanians returning home.

In March 2020, when the quarantine was introduced in the country, 2,128 Lithuanians returned to live in their homeland, while at the same time last year there were 1,564 such people. There was also a significant increase in the number of returnees in June-August. In June alone, 2,401 people returned to Lithuania, and last year there were 1,652 people at the same time.

In July, the figures are even more different. During this month, 3,524 Lithuanians immigrated to the country, in July of last year they were 2,238; In August 2020 – 3353, and last year at the same time – 2153 people.

According to data from the Department of Statistics, the number of Lithuanians who returned between March and August was 13,707, while in the same period of 2019 there were 1,106.

Sigismund Mauricas, chief economist at Luminor Bank, clarified that so far this year, like last year, the overall balance of emigration and immigration is positive, and Lithuania can be happy to have 11,468 more residents than it has left.

“We already had a plus last year, but this is due to the population of third countries, and this year we also have a positive balance of Lithuanian citizens,” he concluded.

“Lithuanian emigrants flocked to Lithuania: most of them may be working from home or during their assigned downtime in other countries; She came back here, and this raised the domestic consumption of Lithuania, so we see such a situation that neither rental prices nor restaurants in our country have dropped.

I think this has been influenced by the general flow of migration. This year we have almost +12 thousand. population in the first 8 months. In general, these people are usually economically active people with resources and savings, here they buy real estate, ”said the economist.

Less emigrants

With regard to Lithuanians who went abroad, it can be seen that the number of compatriots who emigrated in March-August of this year was lower than in 2019.

In March-August this year, 8,597 Lithuanians left the country, and in the same period last year, there were 12,251 of them, which is 3,654 less.

The fact that Lithuania today avoided a large wave of emigration, as happened after the 2008-2009 crisis, according to Ž. Maurico, led by several things.

The first, as you said, is related to the economic situation in Lithuania, and it has improved significantly in recent years.

“Wages grew particularly fast and the tax burden fell. If we compare our salaries with those of other European countries, the difference has decreased significantly,” he said.

Another factor, according to him, may be related to the fact that Lithuania suffered less from the crisis than many Western European countries to which Lithuanians emigrate.

“As a result, the incentives to emigrate have fallen dramatically and the risks remain high as migrants are afraid to go to other countries as they are not sure if certain restrictions will be reintroduced or if they will have a job,” he added. the third reason could be Brexit.

“We just realized that the structure of the emigrants was changing. “With the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, and the region as a whole, the United Kingdom already has a negative immigration balance: more people are leaving than there,” she added.

“Of course, there was a threat that the pandemic would stimulate a wave of emigration, but since Lithuania has managed better than other countries, the economic recession was the second smallest in the EU, so there is no incentive to emigrate. “, Ž. Mauricas.

When asked if it is possible for Lithuanians to travel abroad again after the pandemic subsides, the economist said that certain risks still persist.

“In the coming years, there are some threats, especially for workers in the most affected sectors, as well as for young people, who have a little more trouble finding work during a pandemic.

I believe that everything will depend on economic development, but I do not see that we are going to have a greater decline, “he said.

Predict the Irish scenario

Ž. Mauricas assured me that the improving economic situation in the country should deter Lithuanians from emigrating and that wages and pensions are expected to increase.

“See what narrative is being told right now. As pensions increase, the minimum wage is likely to increase as well, and public sector wages will increase, and that increase will continue.

Lithuania will also feel this inertia, as it has suffered little, has great potential to be the fastest growing economy in the EU, and those trends will boost activity, create new jobs, increase workers’ incomes and certainly not they will foster waves of mass emigration. “I don’t think so,” he said, adding that the scenario that had happened in Ireland was set for our country.

“I think it is very real that we will repeat the Irish scenario of the early 2000s for the next 5 years.

For a long time, people emigrated from Ireland, the stabilization phase continued, and then the opposite happened: people began to return there, they saw that something good was happening and another circle turned, it was fashionable to return. I think immigrating to Lithuania will also become fashionable, ”Ž said. Mauricas.

More foreigners arrived

As for the flows of foreigners who arrived in Lithuania during the pandemic, they emigrated more during the pandemic than last year. In March-August 2020, 10,623 foreigners arrived, and in the same period of 2019, 9,686.

The Employment Service, which is responsible for issuing work permits to third-country nationals, and its spokesperson Milda Jankauskienė also provided statistics. According to her, work permits for third-country nationals have not been issued since March 16 and have only been renewed since July 20.

“The data for this year and last year for 9 months show that in 2020, due to the restrictions on entering our country into quarantine during quarantine, almost double the number of work permits were issued: in 2020, in 9 months – 2366, 2019 in 9 months – 4584.

As of July 20, 2020. until September 15. In 2019, 888 work permits were issued in the Republic of Lithuania. during the same period – 1041, “he said, adding that as of 2017. As of January 1, 2006, due to changes in legal regulation, foreigners whose profession is included in the list of disappeared professions no longer need to obtain a work permit, so UT has no data on how many foreigners came for missing professions without UT-issued documents.

Last year, more immigrants than emigrants

Delfi recalls that in 2019, 40,1 thousand people immigrated to Lithuania. people: 1.4 times (11.2 thousand) more than in 2018, and 29.3 thousand emigrated from Lithuania. permanent residents of the country – 9.1 percent. (2.9 thousand) less than in 2018.

Since 1990 last year, for the first time, the number of immigrants was greater than the number of emigrants: 10.8 thousand. more people immigrated than emigrated. 2019 The international migration of citizens of the Republic of Lithuania was negative (4.1 thousand more emigrants than immigrants).

2019 20,4 thousand returned to live in Lithuania. (50.9% of all immigrants) citizens of the Republic of Lithuania, which is a quarter (23%) more than in 2018.

2019 returned 11.7 thousand. (57.3%) men from the Republic of Lithuania and 8.7 thousand. (42.7%) women.

At the latest in 2019. Citizens of the Republic of Lithuania returned from the UK: 9.6 thousand. (47% of all citizens returned from the Republic of Lithuania), Norway – 2 thousand. (10%), Germany – 1.5 thousand. (7.6%), Ireland – 1.5 thousand. (7.5%).