He spoke of unexpected decisions after the elections: only a few terms can change the situation in fundamental ways

Different opinion polls show similar trends, the result was almost compared by the Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD) and the ruling Lithuanian Union of Peasants and Greens (LVŽS). In third position is the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party, and the Labor Party and the Liberal Movement often cross the 5 percent barrier at the polls.

Word of the president

Mažvydas Jastramskis, Associate Professor, Political Scientist, Institute of International Relations and Political Science, Vilnius University (VU TSPMI), speaking with Delphi He said public opinion polls show the same thing: strong positions from all three parties. However, depending on the interlocutor, they can change very quickly.

“It will all depend on what pushes potential voters up or down in recent weeks, maybe even days. Because in the last election the situation was almost identical: in the weeks leading up to the election, some voters who were thinking of voting for the Social Democrats they had gone to the ranks of the peasants and a small number for the Union of the Fatherland. The question of whether this year will not be the case of the Social Democrats can also be of the conservatives “, said M. Jastramskis about the latest public opinion polls.

The interlocutor said that the frameworks of a possible coalition will not depend on them, but on who else will enter the Seimas.

“It seems that the situation will be divided into three sufficiently equal parties: a mandate for one or the other side. And it will all depend on who, besides them, enters the parliament and how the party leaders agree. And perhaps the Presidency will have something to say ”, said the political scientist of the VU TSPMI.

Jastramskis also recalled the situation in 2000, when the Social Democrats led by Algirdas Brazauskas won the elections, but the coalition was made up of liberals and social-liberals with the permission of Valdas Adamkus.

And he stressed that the president can instruct certain forces to form power, but cannot force them.

“The point is, maybe the president can indirectly, at least in internal conversations, try to see which of those parties will implement that vision of the welfare state more.” But I couldn’t really say at this point that it would be specific to some kind of party. (…) It is not the case that we are already seeing here which party president wants it or not. It will be very necessary to look at the situation immediately after the elections, ”said the interlocutor. And he added that the question of a few terms of office could fundamentally change the situation.

“The president will not be able to form the coalition he wants if that coalition does not have a majority in Seimas,” he said.

The interlocutor was skeptical about the possibility of the president nominating a professional candidate for the post of prime minister.

“The president cannot do that unless he is ready to provoke a state crisis. Because even though he submits, after all, the Seimas votes for the Prime Minister, he approves the government’s program, you can’t even talk about those things here, I think, ”he said.

M. Jastramskis recalled that under the leadership of Dalia Grybauskaitė, the formation of the ruling coalition passed into the hands of the Seimas.

Anyway, we should look at all the precedents that have been created in the last 15 years. During their tenure, A. Brazauskas and V. Adamkus watched and maneuvered what prime ministers here might look like. But later, D. Grybauskaitė took a very clear position that the formation of the ruling coalition and the election of the prime minister is a matter for the Seimas. I think we should stick to that, because it would be a bit strange to ask questions that have already been answered, ”said M. Jastramskis.

The center left may also be with the conservatives

At the same time, the political scientist agreed that the president can give some signals. However, you still don’t see the obvious.

“It just came to our attention then. One could speculate that, based on his speeches, it could be a center-left coalition, but he did not say that it must necessarily bypass the conservatives. Our” manobalsas.lt “project shows that the attitude Conservative in the economy has recently shifted to the left of the center. Which means that this party can also be in the ruling coalition, “said associate professor of VU TPSMI.

To better understand this, M. Jastramskis also gave an example: if the conservatives get 40 seats in the Seimas, the peasants around 29, the Socdem – 33.

“And in the Presidency, everyone would see a stable coalition between the Conservatives and the Social Democrats. It is for whom to play all kinds of games now, if it is possible to agree on the main issues,” shared M. Jastramskis.

At the same time, he called for the parties’ proposals to be evaluated in the programs instead of customarily evaluating their position.

The VU TPSMI political scientist has not ruled out the possibility that all parties are currently speaking, so it is too difficult to automatically determine which coalitions are not possible.

“The Labor Party has no views or decisions and will stick to whatever ministries give them. I think now it’s an open game, because when we used to say that the Conservatives will definitely not form a coalition with the Labor Party, only with the I think this is why we are now talking about fairly open discourses between us, and that is why it is very difficult to predict what the coalition will be like. Because I really imagine that almost all parties with all can be “, – Delphi said M. Jastramskis, political scientist at VU TSPMI.

It is clear who you are addressing

Vę TPSMI associate professor political scientist Kęstutis Girnius saw a possible ruling coalition of the center-left in recent polls.

“If there is almost no difference in qualifications between the Conservatives and the peasants, then clearly the Left will form a new government. I can’t imagine any other option. Because the Conservative will support the Liberal parties in the best of cases: the Liberal Movement and the Freedom Party. I imagine that the right will have about 50 seats in the Seimas and the left, about 65. So it is clear that the president is heading to the left. ” Delphi the political scientist K. Girnius spoke.

At the same time, the interlocutor recalled that although public opinion polls do not point to the possibility that the Polish Lithuanian electoral campaign – the Union of Christian Families (LLRA-KŠS) will jump the 5 percent barrier, the party usually does.

He said that Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis’ extremely friendly comments towards Poland, in the context of disputes with the European Union (EU), could also contribute to this.

K. Girnius said that he could not imagine the joint work of the Labor Party and the Union of the Fatherland in the coalition.

“It just came to our attention then. The Conservatives have a strong electorate and many would not imagine interacting with Viktor Uspaskich, who has a very dubious past. (…) But suddenly merging with V. Uspaskich …? More so, which ones they are the principles of that party, everything depends on one person. That decision would be very surprising, but everything is in politics. ” Delphi said K. Girnius.

The political scientist gave more hope to a possible coalition LSDP and TS-LKD

“It just came to our attention then. There is a sufficient proportion of conservative voters who compare Social Democrats to former Communists. In that sense, an instinctive feeling arises. I think that, in some circumstances, you might agree with G. Paluck and I could argue that we will spend another 4 years in the desert or make compromises, and LSDP is already different. “

There is no savior in the country

In an interview with the BNS news agency in September, President G. Nausėda hinted that he would not necessarily appoint a representative of the party with the most seats as prime minister.

According to K. Girnius, the head of state is looking at the left-wing parties with this statement.

“If the president talks about the welfare state, then the liberals will clearly not support him. It is in this sense that he has a greater tendency to look to the left. But on the other hand, lately Karbauskis has not been controlling and criticizing everyone, including the president, ”he recalled.

According to the VU political scientist TSPMI, the president should not propose a professional prime minister on the side of the new ruling majority.

“I can’t imagine such a scenario. Because that policy has yet to be supported by someone. It’s hard to imagine the Conservatives, the Greens, or even the president proposing a famous person to the Labor Party and saying this is their prime minister. He can offer everything. Whatever you want, but that person must have the support and support of a parliamentary majority.

There is no universally recognized Lithuanian savior who has a common opinion that this person is extremely talented and can solve all our problems. If it were, maybe it could be offered, but since it isn’t … It won’t be, and if it is, it will mean that the president is playing games and not thinking rationally, ”said the political scientist of the VU TSPMI.

When asked which ruling coalition, left or right, would be more favorable to the president, K. Girnius said he would face trouble in either case.

“It just came to our attention then. (…) Even now, after all the controversies, the president quite often emphasizes that he is living with Prime Minister Skvernel. But I think there would be (G. Nausėdai, aut. P.) problems. both with the left and with the right. And the conservatives, in some respects, also have very strong positions: they have representatives of a foreign policy in distress who do not make any compromises with Russia, Belarus. And that would severely limit the flexibility of the president, they would be uncomfortable. And the question: wouldn’t there be many disputes here, trying to impose one or another solution? “Said the interlocutor K. Girnius.

Delphi Remember that it will be necessary to cast your vote in the elections to the Seimas on October 11, and the second round of elections will take place on October 25.