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“It just came to our notice then. The first. COVID-19 arrest measures in the southern hemisphere in the winter of April 2020 (April-August) significantly affected ….. the incidence of influenza. The Historical incidence of influenza, and laboratory data in Chile, South Africa and Australia show that the proportion of positive influenza samples from all nasopharyngeal samples has decreased by up to 20 times this year.
Second. Despite the increase in new COVID-19 cases, the number of hospitalizations in European countries has not increased significantly, as it did in March. Furthermore, preliminary British and German data suggest that COVID-19-induced mortality has decreased in the summer, even despite the increase in new cases since July.
The interesting thing is that the greatest drop in the fatality rate (CFR) is registered in the age group 60 to 79 years, from 9 to 2 percent, ”says V. Kasiulevičius on his Facebook account.
“The fall and winter season will be a reliable answer to know if the pandemic is diminishing”
According to the professor, the scientists warn that only the fall and winter seasons will respond reliably if the pandemic is subsiding.
“Reflection. The number of hospitalizations is the earliest indicator of the severity of COVID-19 infection, and indicates the severity of a pandemic since the second week of the exponential increase in new cases.
A later and more reliable indicator is the number of patients treated in intensive care units, and the number of new deaths per population is the most recent and reliable indicator of the severity of infection.
Therefore, at least a preliminary assessment of the severity of infection from the onset of exponential growth takes up to a couple of months. It should be noted that infection-related mortality depends on which groups of patients are affected by the infection. If the infection begins to spread more among the young population, the overall mortality it causes will also decrease.
During the winter season, the spread of the infection becomes more intense, so we can get accurate answers about the pandemic only after the wave of the virus has subsided ”, says V. Kasiulevičius.
The professor suggests looking at Argentina to get at least part of the necessary answers.
“Argentina currently has a population of more than 45 million and a population density of 16 square km. GDP is more than 2/3 lower than in Lithuania and 5 inpatient beds per 1000 inhabitants.
In Argentina, the population over 65 is only 11 percent (in Lithuania, 19 percent). This country is now in its first weeks of spring. The country is experiencing a huge jump in COVID-19 cases, with more than 600,000 people living with or living with the disease.
The occupancy rate of patients with COVID-19 in Argentine intensive care units is 60 percent and in the capital 70 percent. These days, more than 3,200 COVID-19 patients are being treated in intensive care. In terms of conversion, COVID-19 only requires 70 intensive care beds per million inhabitants.
It is difficult to decide if the wave of the virus in Argentina has already reached its peak (the beginning of the intense jump in cases coincided with the beginning of winter in the southern hemisphere, that is, in the first days of June).
New cases and treatments of patients in resuscitation continue to increase slowly, although some signs of stabilization can also be observed. And yet, the “fatality rate” has stabilized at 2 percent from the previous 5 percent, “says V. Kasiulevičius on his Facebook account.
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