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To what extent is Belarus really independent in its decisions? How much does Lukashenko dictate the living conditions and the rules of the game Russia and its oligarchs? What could end the Belarusian revolution? R. Musnickas and the director of the Vilnius Institute for Political Analysis discussed these issues on the program. analyst Marius Laurinavičius.
As expected, a meeting took place between Putin and Lukashenko, and several protests continue in Belarus. Asked whether the revolution or the regime would win this fight, M. Laurinavičius commented that first what is called victory should be decided.
“If we only call the overthrow of Lukashenko a victory when he finally retires after the demonstrations, it is probably not very likely. This option cannot be completely ruled out, but to say that it is very likely that it is probably a mistake. Given that the main objective of this revolution is to eliminate Lukashenko, because it is neither for the East nor for the West, and the people who protest would not agree on socio-economic and political issues, but their only objective is to overthrow Lukashenko, so it can be said that he has already won ” . .
According to Laurinavičius, the days of Lukashenko are numbered, only to the extent that the game is now on, when the Kremlin, on which the fate of this dictator depends, cannot even show, first of all, to the Russian people that such revolutions they can be successful.
“The main objective now pursued by the Kremlin is to show that the revolution was a failure, that is, that Lukashenko is still in power, as demonstrated by the meeting that Putin supports and will continue to support Lukashenko in the short term. However, if we look at the medium term, at some point in the year, I am almost one hundred percent convinced that Putin is already preparing to change it, “he said.
According to the analyst, now is the energy transit period, because Lukashenko is too expensive a project for the Kremlin.
“Paradoxically, the Kremlin has probably contributed more, of course, in addition to the Belarusian people themselves. Not all protests can be underestimated, but the Kremlin has made a significant contribution (to the overthrow of Lukashenko – Delphi), although it has always been the main supporter from Lukashenko “.
Mr. Musnick asked the interlocutor to imagine democratic elections in Belarus, the election of a president, as the formation of a democratic government from those involved in the revolution, which somehow completely distanced itself from the Kremlin. Is such a scenario possible?
Mr. Laurinavičius replied that it was completely impossible at the moment, because now all the levers in Belarus – political, economic, military and any other – are in the hands of Russia.
Russia will certainly not allow this, but two things must be distinguished: first, Russia’s strategic interest, which is, above all, military. We would probably call it a buffer zone, although in principle, at least in the military sense, it is a common state and a common army that, according to various experts, is at least 90% integrated, so it is very important to maintain this element. military.
The second important interest is to keep that Belarusian, so to speak, in his zone of influence or, to put it mildly, an ally, and that he would in no way become an ally of the West, but will remain Russia’s. “
The expert stressed that he does not rule out the possibility that in the long run something may change in Belarus and that it will always be a Russian province, as Lukashenko did.
“First of all, Putin’s regime is not eternal, and when it collapses, Belarus will certainly have the opportunity to turn to the West, at least in the prospect of a transitional period. But now Putin’s Russia will certainly do its best to prevent Belarus from turning further to the West, but at least to maintain its current state.
We often talk about an allied state, although I doubt that is the main objective, because in a strategic sense, they still have everything that Russia wanted, rather it would be a political tool for Putin to stay in power, and theories still exist. all types. “Strategically they have everything in Lukashenko’s Belarus, but now they will try not to give away anything they have,” he said.
On the other hand, Laurinavičius said that if Lukashenko was overthrown, Putin could not deny or eliminate the social factor, then there would be competition between the existing influence of the Kremlin, which is rooted in all spheres, and at least part of the public expectations that that country changes. not only for one dictator to be replaced by another, but he continued.
“Now we must recognize that at least 70% of Belarusian societies are oriented towards Russia more than towards the European Union. This does not mean that they want to be part of Russia, in any way, but rather that they want an intermediate option, neither with the West nor with Russia, but as a separate state pursuing a so-called balance policy. Apparently, at the moment, that model would be the most acceptable to most of Belarus. However, if we look at the options between Russia and the European Union, currently it’s at least around 70%. Belarusians are getting closer to Russia. “
According to him, even for society itself, change would be a long and complicated process.
Compared to the Ukrainian revolutions
When asked if the new Belarusian leader could become even more dependent on Russia, Mr. Laurinavičius emphasized that Belarus was currently only formally independent, but that Lukashenko had made it a Russian province over the past year.
“Only Lukashenko himself had enough personal autonomy before all these events, not the state one, but the personal one he used. There can be no real Russian influence in Belarus. The army is already integrated and we already have the Russian army on the Lithuanian borders, only the uniform is different. “The economy of Belarus is highly dependent on the Russian economy, politically, from all the sciences that all leaders graduate to all political projects.”
He stressed that this revolution was not geopolitical for the people themselves, and its leaders recognized that they did not want to be friends with the West at the expense of Russia, and they did not want to be friends with Russia at the expense of the West.
“Even such a formula is publicly declared that there are no geopolitical options here, but there is a desire: to overthrow the dictator.”
According to him, if this dictator is overthrown and the current government collapses, there will at least be a chance to choose what they want.
“Obviously, there would be no real democratic process in Belarus at this time, even after the collapse of this regime. However, Belarus would find itself in a very similar situation to 2004. It found itself in Ukraine. Perhaps there was no such level of dictatorship in Ukraine, but that structure was similar in terms of dictatorship.After the Orange Revolution, the elite of the same government, Yushchenko, Tymoshenko and others, came to power.
We would probably have the same situation in Belarus, since 2004. In Ukraine, the influence of Russia was also enormous. Now let’s see how Ukraine got here in those years, of course, another revolution and the war started by Russia have contributed to that, but we already have a situation in which that country can no longer be considered in the sphere of influence of Russia.
Consequently, he says, those transformations, if the Lukashenko regime collapses, are possible within a certain period of time.
Protesters don’t look too far into the future
M. Laurinavičius, responding to the question of whether people are fighting not only to overthrow the dictator, but also to improve living conditions, said that they are not looking too far into the future now.
“The main goal is to overthrow Lukashenko, and with that are his hopes for a better life or a different life in general. If we talk about the reasons for the revolution, perhaps one of the main reasons is the cliché that the socio-economic contract already it is not apropiate “.
According to him, until now, the Belarusian dictator had offered people so-called stability, but it was by no means a good life, and the system somewhat reminded of the Soviet. That stability was also supported by Russia, since the economy always depended on the grace of the Kremlin, and the time came when it no longer wanted to subsidize it with so much money, it also contributed to change.
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