After Lukashenko’s threats to Lithuania, the results of a population survey: is it worth worrying about

What do Lithuanians really think about Lukashenko, Belarus and the events of the last month in this country? Although more than a year of investigation showed mostly Lithuanian skepticism towards the Lukashenko regime, Lithuanians in most cases did not show any signs that Belarus should be afraid or think of greater support for the opposition: a Close but distant Lithuanian neighbor was gray. zone.

Everything has changed since August 9, when the country held a presidential election performance in which the same winner was Lukashenko, who has been in Belarus since 1994.

Unlike in previous elections, there was an unprecedented and endless wave of protests in the country, as well as a wave of confrontation. However, Lithuanians’ attitudes towards such dramatic changes in Belarus are ambiguous, according to a new study.

Supports both the regime and the sanctions against it

On behalf of the Eastern European Studies Center (RESC), the British-Lithuanian public opinion and market research joint venture Baltijos tyrimai conducted a representative survey of the Lithuanian population from August 22 to September 4, 2020. Interviewed 1021 Lithuanian residents (over 18 years). The survey results reflect the opinion of Lithuanian adults (over 18 years of age) according to sex, age, education and type of settlement. The error in the results for a sample of this size does not exceed plus / minus 3.1 percent.

The results turned out to be really strange. For example, four out of ten (41%) Lithuanians aged 18 and over agree that even in the face of political unrest in Belarus, Lithuania
should seek closer political dialogue with the current Belarusian government (12% strongly agree and 29% soon agree), with just over a fifth (22%) disagreeing (9% strongly disagree and 13% strongly agree) disagree) and a quarter (26%)) neither agree nor disagree with this statement. A tenth (11%) of the respondents did not have an opinion on this issue.

This statement is slightly more common among people over the age of 30 (young people aged 18-29 have no opinion) than in rural areas (46%), respondents with higher education (47%) and those with Higher family income (more than € 1,200). per month (48%), managers (53%) and workers and farmers (45%), residents of other nationalities (non-Lithuanian) (51%), left-wing respondents (55%). Public officials and specialists (28%) and right-wing respondents (31%) disagreed relatively more with this statement.

At the same time, however, a very similar number (44%) of Lithuanians over the age of 18 agree with the exact opposite statement that Lithuania should support sanctions against the Belarusian authorities for fraudulent elections and the use of force against protesters, even if this would worsen Lithuanian-Belarusian politics and politics. economic relations. 14% totally agree and 30% totally agree, one sixth (17%) disagree with this statement (6% totally disagree and 11% strongly disagree) and three out of ten (29%) do not agree nor disagree.

People under 50 years of age agree a little more with this statement (people over 50 are slightly more likely than others not to have a strong position, neither agree nor disagree), urban residents, respondents with higher education (60%) and those with the highest (more than € 1,200). ) monthly family income (54%), young people in education (55%) and professionals and civil servants (53%). Non-Lithuanians most often disagreed with this statement (32%). The population of all demographic and social groups, except the Polish population, agrees with this statement more than they do not (28% agreed with the statement, 35% did not agree and 31% did not agree with the statement. agree or disagree).

I am not interested, also the results

According to Tomas Janeliūnas, a professor at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University, such contradictions show that people in Lithuania are not interested in Belarus, at least consistently.

“They don’t think about it and they don’t have a clear position. Therefore, the answers to the topic “what you ask, you will receive.” No wonder, knowing that foreign policy is never an area of ​​great concern. On the other hand, the fact that a significant number of people tend to pursue a policy of “closer cooperation” with the Lukashenko regime shows that we, as a society, are by no means so “loving and supporting” freedom.

Public support for the Belarusian people who oppose the Lukashenko regime remains only a reflection of the active part of society. And for a fairly large part of the rest of society, this is not interesting, or they take the position that “it is better not to interfere,” commented the political scientist on the Lithuanian attitude.

In fact, in the survey mentioned above, the Lithuanian population is inconsistent in evaluating the events in Belarus through the eyes of the famine and in observing how other questions have been answered. For example, just over a quarter (27%) of Lithuanians over the age of 18 agree with the claim that the Alexander Lukashenko government allows Belarus to maintain the country’s partial political independence from Russia.

At the same time, however, half (51%) of Lithuanians over the age of 18 agree with the statement that Lukashenko is a pro-Russian leader in Belarus (20% fully agree and 31% soon agree. agreement), just over a tenth.

Furthermore, almost half (45%) of Lithuanians over the age of 18 agree with the statement that Lithuania should provide asylum and other assistance to Belarusian citizens affected by the protests. However, more than four in ten (44%) Lithuanians over the age of 18 agree that granting asylum to presidential candidate Sviatlan Cichanouskaya could worsen Lithuanian-Belarusian relations in the future.

Lithuanians, who like to scoff at “deep concern”, are often inclined to criticize the European Union for its inaction and also believe that the EU’s position on Belarus was appropriate. For example, four out of ten (38%) Lithuanians over 18 years of age agreed with the statement that the response of the European Union states to the actions of Belarusian power structures against protesting citizens was appropriate.

“Perhaps similar results could have been obtained if we had asked about support for the freedom fighters in Zanzibar or the people of Westerland seeking to overthrow the dictator of Crownland.

By the way, and this is a good illustration of why the West reacts so passively. If in Lithuania the majority of the public is not very interested in what is happening in Belarus, then in Germany or France it is an issue that concerns a very small part of society, that is, politicians do not have pressure from their voters and it’s not a priority for them, “noted T. Janeliūnas.

Finally, however, almost half (46%) of Lithuanians over the age of 18 agree with the statement that Lithuania’s publicly stated political position in support of protesters in Belarus is correct. Rural residents (20%), unemployed and housewives (22%), respondents of other nationalities (32%) disagreed slightly more with this statement.

This statement was more accepted than not by all demographic and social groups except the Polish population (26% agreed and 39%
in disagreement). It should be noted that the Russian population agrees with such a statement a little more (33%) than they disagree (28%).