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Almost 6 percent. the number of the population that intends to cast their vote in the general Seimas elections has increased.
According to a survey conducted by the market agency ELTA from August 22 to September 4, according to the market research and public opinion company Baltijos tyrimai, the ratings of the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party were the ones that increased the most during the last month. 13.3 percent said they intended to vote for them. surveyed, compared with 9.4% in July.
14.3% indicated that the Union of Greens and Peasants of Lithuania was their priority. of those surveyed (15.2% in July) and 13.8% plan to vote for the Conservatives. respondents (12.9 respondents planned to vote for TS-LKD in July). After estimating the error, both parties compete for the position of leaders.
The Labor Party continues to rank on the leaderboard with 8.3 percent. support (7.4 percent in July), the Liberal Movement with 6 percent popularity (5.4% in July) and the Freedom and Justice party, which have the support of 5.4%. respondents (5.6% in July).
5 percent According to survey data, nationalists from the Center Party, the Freedom Party and the Union of Christian Families of the Lithuanian Polish Election Campaign, who have the support of 2.9 percent, do not cross threshold. respondents, as well as “social workers” with 2%. the Christian Union, for which 0.6 percent plan to vote. respondents, Union of Solidarity-Intergenerational Cohesion for Lithuania, whose popularity reaches 0.5 percent. and the National Association with 0.2 percent. support for.
Photo by P. Peleckis / Fotobankas
The number of people who intend to stand for election is growing
According to the survey, almost 4%, compared to the survey conducted before the 2016 elections to the Seimas and a month ago, an increasing number of those who plan to vote in the general parliamentary elections. The poll showed that just over a month before the elections, half, 50 percent. In July, 46% of the country’s adult population intended to vote in these elections (46% in July and 2016), and a fifth, 21%. She replied that she did not intend to attend. Three out of ten: 29 percent. Residents surveyed have not yet decided whether they will go to the Seimas elections or have not answered this question.
People over 50, respondents with higher education, managers, specialists and civil servants and retirees, and right-wing respondents intend to vote more actively in the Seimas elections on October 11.
Experts: The voices of the undecided travel from the center left
When evaluating the results of the party support poll, Professor Šarūnas Liekis from Vytautas Magnus University (VMU) stated that the responses of those polled in the elections predict the victory of the center-left parties.
“Obviously, the voices of the undecided go mainly to the center-left, and such tendencies signify their victory,” Eltai told Štai. Liekis.
According to him, such an increase in the popularity of the Social Democrats may be due to the fact that part of the electorate is undecided until after the elections, who to vote for and finally to the left just before the elections. Furthermore, the professor said, skeptical voters can simply prevent parties from fighting loudly with each other.
“Many people in Lithuania are traditionally indecisive, who do not know until the last moment what it will” go to “. It is obvious that in order to prevent two great forces from fighting each other -” peasants “and conservatives – people trust the center position- left, even in the Labor Party itself “, Š. Liekis.
There are many traditionally indecisive people in Lithuania who do not know until the last moment what they are “going” for.
“It is a consolidation of the undecided and the center-left position declared by the Social Democratic Party is attractive to a large number of voters,” said the VMU professor.
Donatas Puslys, Director of the Media and Democracy Program at the Vilnius Institute for Political Analysis (VPAI), widely shared this view.
“Time is running out, a decision needs to be made and there may be some search for a ‘third way’. The ruling ‘peasants’ embody continuity, the conservatives, as the main opposition force, embody the opposite pole, the social democrats are like a middle ground, which, no matter how the elections end, will be very important in deciding with whom and with whom to form a governing coalition, ” he emphasized. VPAI Specialist.
He also highlighted that the increase in people who intend to vote in elections in general may have been influenced by the intensification of the electoral campaigns of the parties, while highlighting the personality of Gintautas Paluckas, the leader of the Social Democrats who increased his support. to the voters.
According to him, the leaders of other political forces have very different opinions from those of the people: the population “either loves them or does not love them”, and B. Paluckas, noted D. Puslys, although he never leads in ratings of personalities, but his party remains popular.
“They can use this to their advantage when they think more about the game itself. Because there is a leader who may not give very strong positive emotions for a voter to defend him and say “I want him as prime minister”, but he does not cause polarization. This can happen to other parties, (…) they are loving or hateful ”, said D. Puslys.
Is LLRA-KŠS real support not reflected in the ratings?
At that time Š. The remainder, in terms of smaller parties, which, according to the results of the survey, do not exceed 5 percent. barrier, isolated by LLRA-KŠS. According to him, the ratings of this party should not be seen as a reflection of the real situation, because the electorate of this political force, Š. The remnant, in the end, is still mobilized and the LLRA-KSS enters parliament.
Photo by A. Ufartas / Fotobankas
“It just came to our attention then. Clearly, this will depend on their overall participation. At the last moment, it seems, people come, they have no other choice and give voice to those they are used to,” LLRA-KŠS described to voters to Š. Liekis.
D. Puslys shared the same opinion, emphasizing that the results of the LLRA-KŠS elections are not determined by the party program or the work done.
This shows the true face of this party, but they will use an administrative resource in their districts.
“Their outcome is not determined by software preferences. Those are the attitudes: they make noise on various issues and then name the victims. While it will be much more difficult for those victims to play now because they are in the ruling coalition, than it is. They used to speak in the past and I would assure them that they were abused, now they can implement them themselves and they did not even raise those problems. This shows the real face of this party, but they will use the administrative resource in their districts, “said the VPAI specialist.
“People will be induced to vote for them not because of beliefs, but because of other things,” Puslys emphasized.
The two experts Elta interviewed also noted that given the error in the survey results, the potential placement of the top three in a multi-member constituency remains intriguing.
“It is not clear who will sit in the single member and what the final composition of the Seimas will be like after that, there are many of those questions. … There will be many nuances in the coalition negotiations,” added D. Puslys.
The survey was conducted in 2020. August 22 – September 4. During the research, 1,021 Lithuanian residents (aged 18 years and over) were interviewed through personal interviews, and the survey was conducted at 119 sampling points. The composition of the respondents corresponds to the composition of the Lithuanian population aged 18 years and over by sex, age, nationality and type of settlement. The opinion of the people surveyed reflects the opinion of the Lithuanian population aged 18 and over. The error of the research results is up to 3.1 percent.
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