After the humiliation in Russia, Lukashenko is already waiting for guests: Russian paratroopers have arrived, Putin himself may arrive

The meeting between Lukashenko and Putin in Sochi, which ended a few days ago, continues to provoke a series of gossip, ridicule and similar comments about the way in which the de facto Belarusian leader, whose “victory” in the presidential elections is not carried out, has been carried out. recognized in the West.

After being humiliated and allowed to do so, Lukashenko has at least garnered public support and made remarks to Putin in front of the cameras that have been repeated for some time about the threat posed by the West, specifically Lithuania, the United States and NATO.

Lukashenko, who reiterated the threat from the threat Thursday night, said even more threateningly that the threat to Lithuania and Poland had led to the mobilization of half the country’s army (around 30,000) and the closure of the border, Although Lukashenko said as before, no one confirmed.

A. Lukashenko, who chose oral war with Lithuania to be at war, has so far only done so on one recently discussed issue: the Astrava nuclear power plant. This issue, which is especially sensitive for Lithuania, does not arise during the crisis, when Lithuania is repeatedly mentioned during the talks of V. Putin and A. Lukashenko.

He recalled the most important investment

Public speeches about the alleged threat Lithuania poses to Belarus have been echoing for a whole month. In August, Belarus even organized several exercises on the Lithuanian border, as well as near the Astrava nuclear power plant. Such a show of power did not go unnoticed by Lithuania, but both President Gitanas Nausėda and the Ministries of National Defense and Foreign Affairs made it clear that Vilnius was interested in escalating the situation, not exacerbating it, thus avoiding strong retaliation.

Instead of Lithuania, the United States demonstrated a kind of power: B-52 bombers and reconnaissance flights near the Belarusian border recalled that Lithuania has deployed not only American ground forces, but also other capabilities that could be quickly strengthened if Lukashenko presented provocations on the border. However, the rhetoric of the long-time Belarusian leader has never been unequivocal.

The fact that the actual conversation between A. Lukashenko and V. Putin took place in Sochi behind closed doors and not in front of the cameras, the details of which are only mentioned and harshly commented on by the Kremlin, has been debated for several days. However, it is no coincidence that after his visit, Lukashenko pompously remembered the Astrava nuclear power plant, a project conceived and financed by Russia, more precisely by its state-owned company Rosatom.

In mid-July, Rosatom, who spoke pompously about the commissioning of the nuclear power plant in the coming weeks, received a lot of attention in Lithuania, who protested and took desperate measures to reduce the damage. Just before the presidential elections, an irreversible liberation process began. At that time, Lithuania received official confirmation that the nuclear fuel would be transported to the reactor of Unit 1 of the Astrava Nuclear Power Plant (CN).

This was announced by the State Atomic Energy Safety Inspectorate (VATESI), which received a notification from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that it was planned to transport the unused nuclear fuel assemblies to the first power unit of the plant. Belarus nuclear power plant.

And while experts said at the time that the actual launch was still a long way from the end of the year or early next, Lukashenko’s remarks cast doubt on whether Minsk, at Moscow’s request, had devised a rushed process.

“I invite you all. I believe that on November 7, an important day for us, we will be able to visit there and say that we have received the first electricity from our nuclear power plant,” Lukashenko said.

Paratroopers and Putin will arrive

As if it were the same day, the Kremlin’s answer to the somewhat unexpected question appeared whether Putin was not thinking of attending the inauguration of the Astrava nuclear power plant. Such a possibility has been publicly expressed by G. Nausėda, who announced in July that the president of Russia would come to the opening of the Astrava nuclear power plant. True, there was no crisis in the presidential elections at that time, there were huge protests in Belarus, and Lukashenko himself was not yet so humble with the Kremlin.

“So far there is no understanding,” replied Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin representative, to that question about Putin’s possible visit to Astrava on the border with Lithuania.

It was the attempt to stay in power that increased Lukashenko’s dependence on the Kremlin, which is not only noted at almost 8 billion. dollars in loans and credits with which Russia has supported the life of the Belarusian economy over the last decade, but also the Astrava nuclear power plant project itself.

The latter costs the Kremlin much more than annual loans to Minsk. Putin’s own words were especially eloquent: “Russia remains the largest investor in the Belarusian economy, and the Astrava nuclear power plant costs Moscow 10 billion.” Dollars “.

On the other hand, V. Putin is well aware that it is the Astrava nuclear power plant that is breaking the unity of the Baltic states on the Belarus question and making Lithuanians nervous. Therefore, the more confusion there is in Lithuania and other countries about the commissioning of the Astrava nuclear power plant, the less attention will be paid to A. Lukashenko himself and his internal processes in the country. And the latter continue to denote the same climbing curve.

It is therefore no coincidence that Lukashenko not only recalled the Astrava nuclear power plant project, indicated another date for its launch, but also agreed with Putin’s “proposal” to conduct more military exercises in Belarus in a Next future. Additionally, Belarus is sending hundreds of its best troops to exercise Caucasus 2020.

The unusually high pace of tactical exercises in Belarus has been officially covered by the previously planned “Slavic Brotherhood 2020” military exercises, but foresees a more important role for Russian forces. In addition, Russia is sending troops from the elite Pskov Paratroopers Division, which belong to the rapid reaction force, to exercise in Belarus.

In addition, after these exercises, which have already formally started, several more “battalion-level” tactical exercises await in October and November in response to the NATO exercises being carried out in Lithuania.

By the way, the scenarios of the exercise indicate the fight against terrorists, intruders and sabotage specialists who supposedly intend to carry out attacks against strategic objects of the allied state. Why it is necessary to carry out such an exercise near the Lithuanian border at the same time that Lukashenko sharpens his rhetoric towards Lithuania and launches the Astrava nuclear power plant and possibly plans a possible visit to Putin, neither in the Kremlin nor in Minsk is explained logically. The only narrative remains unchanged: Belarus reportedly faces an inexplicable threat from the West, specifically from Lithuania and Poland. And Lukashenko assures that he will react to this threat with the Russian forces.

“In recent days, I have been forced to work with the Russian president and the defense minister to create a common defense for the state of the Union,” Lukashenko said. It is still unknown if this will mean that Russian border guards and perhaps soldiers will show up on the eastern border of Lithuania.