Experts on the meeting between Putin and Lukashenko: they will float to the surface

According to many commentators, in Sochi it was possible to hear two specific things: Putin’s words about the constitutional reform planned by Lukashenko and that Russia will provide Belarus with 1.5 billion. Government loan in USD.

“We know your proposal to start working with the Constitution,” Putin, who was comfortably dressed in the armchair, addressed A. Lukashenko, who turned to him. “I think the proposal is logical, timely and adequate.”

Of course, Lukashenko has been talking about future amendments for several years; no protests were needed. He also talks about the referendum necessary to consolidate the reform.

But what is Putin doing here? Why did you decide to remind Lukashenko publicly, rather than privately, to understand, the necessary domestic political reforms in Belarus? Does this mean that Moscow wants to reduce Lukashenko’s influence in the country?

“The performance continues”, 15 minutes however, said Laurynas Jonavičius, a professor at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University. – Moscow does not have a very clear plan yet and there are enough risks due to certain steps. Therefore, the waiting position is occupied. “

Dialogue and reform

Addressing the Minsk guest, Putin added that Belarusians “have to deal with this situation calmly and in dialogue with each other, without statements or external pressure.”

There was also confirmation that Moscow considers Lukashenko to be the legitimate leader of Belarus, but there were also words that the amendment to the Constitution “will allow the development of the country’s political system to reach new heights.”

In other words, the Russian president has mentioned the need to change something “through dialogue” and “system development” more than once. Unlike A. Lukashenko, Andrejus Kazakevičius, director of the Minsk Institute for Political Research, also noticed.

A. Kazakevičius: In the published record, Lukashenko himself does not mention the constitutional reform and does not say what he thinks about the political dialogue within the country.

According to him, Putin has clearly demonstrated to Lukashenko that the Kremlin also needs the issue of reforms in Belarus in any discussion: “He reminded Lukashenko of political reforms, not to forget them.”

And in the published post, Lukashenko himself does not mention the constitutional reform and does not say what he thinks about the political dialogue within the country. Therefore, I think Putin reminded him that Moscow does not abandon this issue and seeks change in Belarus, “said Kazakevich.

In fact, Lukashenko preferred to teach how to “let” people enter liberated Minsk to stroll on weekends, thank Russia for their support, call the Russians “big brothers” and condemn the supposedly insidious NATO maneuvers by mentioning Pabradė.

A new elite could play

For his part, Maxim Samorukov, one of the leaders of the Carnegie Center in Moscow, says he is sure that Putin did not speak about the constitutional reform for himself, that it will be necessary to maintain the support of the Kremlin.

“Such support, 1.5 billion. Dollar loan, price. Putin’s words bear witness to who needs more a constitutional reform in Belarus: the Kremlin.

Most importantly, after such reform, Lukashenko will no longer be the authoritarian leader of Belarus. The Kremlin will not need to deal directly with Belarus on all matters related to Belarus. Instead, a lax ruling elite will appear, whose members will not trust each other, “writes M. Samorukov.

According to the analyst, Lukashenko caused problems for Russia because he controlled everything only in Belarus and because the Kremlin thought he was very popular in the country.

And the future elite, who will occupy seats in parliament, the Security Council or the government, will not have as much confidence and influence.

“The future elite, in which powers will be divided, lacks confidence, especially in Belarus itself. Members of this elite will understand that they will not know why Belarusians will vote if they can vote freely, so they will decide that it is better to trust in the Kremlin, which will not allow Belarusians to vote freely, “Samorukov said.

It emphasizes that the constitutional reform in the Kremlin is certainly not planned as a step towards a drastic democratization of Belarusian political life.

“Yes, Lukashenko’s powers will diminish, but at the same time the regime will retain the ability to silence those who should not speak.

The constitutional reform in the Kremlin is certainly not planned as a step towards a drastic democratization of Belarusian political life.

Strengthening other points of power does not mean democracy. Parliament will have more power, but it will not necessarily be freely elected. In addition, the reform will be coordinated with Russia, “said Samorukov.

Don’t want anti-Russian sentiment

Jonavičius agrees. According to him, “Putin’s plan continues to be implemented”, because Lukashenko “is a toxic issue for everyone.”

“You have to deal with it, but it can have negative consequences. The whole system in Belarus is based on one person and there is no alternative center of power.

Mr Lukashenko will certainly do everything possible to ensure that such a center does not emerge. But it is better for Russia to have the opportunity to speak with more centers of power, with officials who could even alternatively negotiate with Moscow. Yes, the Kremlin wants to decentralize the system through a constitutional reform ”, explained the analyst.

The problem, according to L. Jonavičius, is that Lukashenko also talks about constitutional reform, although he definitely understands it differently from Russia.

Marek Menkiszak, director of the Russian branch of the Center for Oriental Studies in Warsaw, also commented: “Both parties know that this is the package.”

L. Jonavičius: The more Russia intervenes, the more likely it is that the protests against Lukashenko will turn into protests against Russia. Putin doesn’t need that.

Lukashenko even has a trump card, perhaps even he understands that Moscow’s apparent support for the dictator would increase anti-Russian sentiment in Belarus.

“Russia has serious and strong levers: economy, army, politics, media. But in the current situation, they do not want and cannot actively use these weapons,” said M. Menkiszak.

“Russia, of course, will try to push its interests to the maximum, but without causing more waves; there is a danger that the more Russia intervenes, the more likely that protests against Lukashenko will turn into protests against Russia. Putin does not need that.” 15 minutes L. Jonavičius also acknowledged.

You can leave Lukashenko

That is why it is possible for the Kremlin to overthrow the constitutional reform in Belarus without even attracting Lukashenko. The reasons, according to experts, are not yet one.

As the Constitution will be new, in principle, the entire term of Lukashenko should not mean anything else. But more importantly, he cannot go anywhere because he controls a machine of power and power in Belarus.

If you go now, who will be entrusted with the implementation of the constitutional reform? Also, all those riot militiamen and KGB agents are listening to Lukashenko, there is no more influential person in the country.

The Kremlin has nothing to change, but it is not necessary, “Samorukov said.

Lukashenko is said to have been cornered, and the fact that the West will no longer speak to him is very convenient for the Kremlin. Also, if there were more centers of power in Belarus, what difference would it make if Lukashenko was president or not?

Samorukov: Putin has no plans for the next decades. He wants to reform the Belarusian regime, and that requires Lukashenko. When, in a few years, the question arises whether or not to re-elect Lukashenko, the decision will be made according to the circumstances.

“I think Putin will feel better personally if Lukashenko remains in power. For the West, this would become a symbol that the regime is not fundamentally new: it will be clear that no real democracy has emerged, which will mean that the West will not initiate a new dialogue with Minsk, “explained Samorukov.

“Putin has no plans for the coming decades. He wants to reform the Belarusian regime, and that requires Lukashenko. When, in a few years, the question arises whether or not to re-elect Lukashenko, the decision will be made according to the circumstances.

If then there are candidates who will be more favorable to the Kremlin, Lukashenko may be removed from office. Or not. Older people prefer inertial scenarios ”, added the analyst.

Won’t let you drown, you’ll have to float

L. Jonavičius, for his part, claims that Russia will allow Lukashenko to “float to the surface” in the near future.

“They will not lift it out of the water, but it will not be allowed to drown, it will float to the surface. Probably just because of the appearance of other players in Belarus to talk to if Lukashenko is already fully supsichuos whether it will be removed one way or another “, 15 minutes said the expert.

Of course, there is also the position of A. Lukashenko, not just the Kremlin. L. Jonavičius noted: “I think he sees an opportunity to go out, stand with his feet on the bottom and already then find a way to leave with dignity. Or, of course, he will think that after leaving such a score, he will be able to sit in power as much as he wants. “

Kazakevičius does not believe that Lukashenko is satisfied with the new reality, which would mean sharing power with other actors.

“I don’t think he agrees to play a lesser role than in the last 25 years. This is not in line with his psychotype: he reacts very acutely to internal crises, the illusion of control is very important to him.

Therefore, the Kremlin can demand new people in key positions. Again, nothing is clear yet, “said A. Kazakevičius.

“All his behavior shows that Lukashenko will not want to run in a lower position. And this may mean that if he has to choose between the post of deputy minister and resignation, he will probably choose to resign,” agreed L. Jonavičius.