Six ways for Germany to sink the Nord Stream 2 pipeline

Germany is already used to explaining that the 1,230 km-long gas pipeline, which is supposed to flow 55 billion euros a year under the Baltic Sea, to Europe. cubic meters is not a political project but only a commercial one.

But critics agree: At least Germany doesn’t really need that much extra gas, so it’s not about extra capacity, but about changing the main route for Russian gas to Europe. It is currently passing through Ukraine, and supposedly that transit route is not safe.

Admittedly, after the Navaln poisoning, the pressure on German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who has repeatedly said that Nord Stream 2 must be completed, has suddenly started to mount.

Many circumstances

Not only the traditional critics of Eastern Europe or the United States, but also the German Greens, who have become very popular in recent years, have started speaking out loud about the European pipeline, which is undermining Europe’s energy security. .

“This open assassination attempt should not only concern us, it should also have consequences.” Nord Stream 2 is no longer what we can develop with Russia, “said Katrin Göring-Eckardt, one of the party’s leaders, who is a candidate. very real to join the ruling coalition after the next election.

Norbert Röttgen, a spokesman for Merkel’s own Christian Democratic Union and chairman of the Bundestag’s foreign affairs commission, said the completion of the pipeline would only embrace Vladimir Putin’s “inhumane policy”.

And Merkel herself said quite unexpectedly that she has yet to make a final decision on Nord Stream 2.

Finally, he told Bloomberg last week that any response to Moscow over the Navaln poisoning must be coordinated with partners in Europe; it cannot be Germany alone.

It is true that the EU’s foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, said that decisions on the gas pipeline were “beyond the reach of the European Commission.”

However, the ball seems to be on the German side. Although companies from other countries are also involved in the Nord Stream 2 project, it is Berlin that is decisive here. If the Germans decided that the pipeline was not necessary, how could the project be stopped?

There will be a lawsuit against Nord Stream 2, a company registered in Switzerland but owned by the Russian state giant Gazprom.

Here, according to Politico, the important thing is that Germany alone cannot just seize and block the ends of the pipeline. EU law is likely to be violated; It is not clear whether Germany alone can stop gas flows to Europe.

Furthermore, there would be a risk of litigation with the Swiss-registered company Nord Stream 2, which is wholly owned by the Russian state giant Gazprom. It would not be easy to win the case, so there are billions in benefits on the horizon.

“But Germany could sit back and let others get to work and watch the unfinished pipeline slowly break down,” Politico said. So what movements and their consequences are possible?

1. Revocation of existing authorizations

Permits for the construction of Nord Stream 2 are currently issued by two German authorities. One of them, the Strazlund Mining Authority, has issued a permit for the construction and operation of the pipeline in German territorial waters and in the coastal area of ​​Lubmin, near Greifswald.

This body operates on the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern land, which is in favor of the pipeline. It owns the port of Mukran, which was threatened with sanctions by three US Republican senators in August.

In response, the Land Parliament only emphasized its desire to complete Nord Stream 2. Prime Minister for Lands Manuela Schwesig is also displeased, she said, with the blackmail, so it would be difficult to persuade Mecklenburg-Vorpommern to withdraw from the draft.

But there is still the German Federal Agency for Transport and Hydrography, which has issued a permit to build a 30 km stretch of the gas pipeline in the country’s exclusive economic zone. It is true that it is independent from the government, so it would be risky for Berlin to push this service.

A defeat in court could cost Germany as much as the Nord Stream 2 project itself, valued at around 9.5 billion euros. euros.

If, in one of these cases, the permits were revoked for political reasons, Switzerland-based Nord Stream 2 AG could take Germany to court under the Energy Charter Treaty. Both parties have signed this agreement, which protects investments from unpredictable political changes.

This litigation could cost Germany as much as the Nord Stream 2 project itself, valued at around 9.5 billion euros. euros. And if lost profits were included in the calculations, the bill would go up even more.

2. Challenges for non-governmental organizations

German politicians could also calmly wait for the current cases to end. Suppose that, for environmental reasons, the Strazlund Mining Service has been sued by the non-governmental organization Deutsche Umwelthilfe.

The organization claims that the environmental impact of the gas pipeline would be greater than previously thought and seeks to freeze construction of the facility. It is also argued that the project itself is incompatible with Germany’s ambitious goals on the global warming front.

The Strazlund Mining Authority itself has refused to respond to such calls, but a decision has yet to be made by the Greifswald High Administrative Court.

3. Restriction of Russian gas imports at the national level

German law allows foreign trade to be restricted to “guarantee the essential security interests of the Federal Republic or avoid obstacles to the peaceful coexistence of the parties.”

The Foreign Trade and Payment Law can also be used in response to a threat “related to an individual case”, so poisoning by A. Navan would probably be appropriate here. It is true that any action must be proportionate and evidence-based.

The law could affect both Nord Stream 2 and the first Nord Stream, if Germany, for example, decided not to touch the second pipeline but to block gas flows from the first.

However, the court could reverse such a decision and classify it as disproportionate. This was already the case in December last year, when a Frankfurt court lifted restrictions on the sale of armor to Saudi Arabia following the murder of journalist Yamal Khashoggi.

Looking at Europe as a whole, it is also unclear whether Germany alone could stop gas flows to the EU.

4. Let US sanctions suppress

In fact, there are several risks for Germany in the above cases. But Berlin certainly wouldn’t lose much if it just didn’t oppose the extraterritorial sanctions already announced by the United States.

Washington targets pipeline companies and in December spooked the Swiss-Dutch company Allseas, which withdrew from the project without covering its last 150 kilometers.

And when two Gazprom-linked ships set sail for Mukran earlier this year to complete the project, the US State Department added Stream 2 to an even broader 2017 sanctions package.

Finally, thanks to the efforts of senators, some 120 companies in 12 EU countries that wish to negotiate with Nord Stream 2 could be subject to US sanctions. German politicians, it is true, speak angrily of invading the sovereignty of Germany and the Commonwealth, but allowing the Americans to act may even be expedient.

5. Adoption of sanctions at EU level

This option would be the safest for Berlin, as Germany would not act alone. Clearly, the European Council should vote unanimously in favor of the adoption of sanctions.

It is far from clear if that would be the case, but so far any initiative on Nord Stream 2 has been blocked by Germany. If the Germans changed their minds, other countries where the companies involved in the project (Finland, Austria, France, the Netherlands) could follow suit.

Sanctions at the EU level must be evidence-based, as the EU judiciary may reject a disproportionate response.

Last week, the prime minister of Italy, a country relatively friendly to Russia, Giuseppe Conte, said Rome would vote on sanctions on Russia in the same way as Berlin.

Of course, sanctions at the EU level must be based on evidence, as the EU judiciary may reject a disproportionate response.

6. Do not illuminate the last green light

Finally, even if no action is taken by Germany or the EU, Nord Stream 2 would still need a license to go live.

Suppose the pipeline will be completed, but then you will need to find a company that is brave enough and risks the final inspection in the face of US sanctions.

Gazprom must also comply with the EU gas directive, which came into force last year, and comply with the rule that pipelines cannot be operated by a company affiliated with gas suppliers and sellers. The decision will have to be made by the German authorities, but the European Commission has already warned Gazprom that technical games will not be possible.