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Chancellor Angela Merkel is under pressure from both her own party and the opposition to suspend or cancel Nord Stream 2. This is said to send a signal to Russian President Vladimir Putin that the red line has been crossed. For its part, Moscow assures her that it has nothing to do with the poisoning of Alexei Navaln, writes Politico.
There is a fragmentation in German policy towards Russia: some believe that talking to Russia is the only way to avoid a total collapse of relations, while others believe that Putin will only resign if Berlin opposes him.
Reuters / Photo by Scanpix / Angela Merkel and Vladimir Putin
No channeling needed?
In recent years, Germany has spent between 85,000 and 90,000 million euros a year. cubic meters of natural gas needed for everything from industry to home heating to electricity generation. About a third of Germany imports gas from Russia, another third from Norway, about 30 percent. from Holland. The rest comes from internal sources.
Such a combination suggests another 55 billion. Cubic meters of gas (such potential capacity of Nord Stream 2) would be unnecessary, writes Politico.
Herein lies the problem: Nord Stream 2 is not about additional capacity, but about changing the main route of Russian gas to Europe. He is currently leading through Ukraine.
In the Netherlands, environmental concerns have led to opposition to gas extraction, and the country plans to reduce it by 2030. Germany will need a substitute for gas bought from the Netherlands, and is expected to need even more gas for generation. of electricity at that time.
Germany itself is abandoning fossil fuels through a long-term energy transformation. It is a gradual process and gas remains a key component. Germany already draws about half of its electricity from renewable energy sources and needs gas as a substitute, as does the lack of wind or solar power, Politico writes.
In the medium term, there is another reason why Germany needs more gas: its withdrawal from nuclear power, which generated around 14% last year. electricity and coal, which generated about 30 percent. electric. Germany plans to close the last nuclear power plant in 2022 and complete coal-fired power generation in 2038.
AFP / Scanpix photo / Nuclear power plant in Germany
According to Politico, Germany will temporarily rely on natural gas, which emits less carbon, to reach its zero-carbon goal by 2050.
Last year, gas generated 11 percent in Germany. electricity, which is 21 percent. growth since 2018. Energy analysts disagree on how much natural gas Germany will need in the coming years, but hardly anyone doubts that they will continue to be a mainstay of the country’s energy supply in the near future.
“Politically problematic”
The Nord Stream pipeline was never just about the German market. The work of Putin and former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, now in a senior position at Gazprom, was aimed at the broader northern European market, writes Politico.
However, critics say that Nord Stream 2 is not necessary. They draw attention to new sources of natural gas in Europe, from US liquefied natural gas to pipelines like TurkStream. The latter connects Russia with Turkey through the Black Sea.
Reuters / Photo by Scanpix / Gerhard Schroeder and Vladimir Putin
“The pipeline is politically problematic, unnecessary from an energy supply perspective, too expensive and incompatible with the EU’s energy and climate change goals,” said Claudia Kemfert, a leading German energy economist.
The gas pipeline in Germany is also a complex subject of public opinion. Even after the poisoning of A. Navaln, 55 percent. Germans believe the project should continue despite tensions with Russia, according to a poll released this week.
For the Germans, the new pipeline is a big step forward compared to the leaky transit through Ukraine, where parts of the pipeline have been in operation for more than half a century, writes Politico.
It is true that repairing the gas pipeline through Ukraine would be much cheaper: it would uncouple 6 billion. when Nord Stream 2 costs € 10 billion. euros.
For the Kremlin, Nord Stream 2 has always had a geopolitical project to avoid Ukraine. However, with the inception of the pipeline project, a few years before Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Berlin either ignored the long-term consequences or did not care.
Last December, Merkel helped conclude a five-year agreement between Ukraine and Russia, which will ensure that Kiev continues to pay a transit tax, which is crucial for the country’s weak economy. However, it is not known what will happen after the contract expires in 2024, writes Politico.
Reuters / Scanpix photo / Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline under construction
The poisoning of A. Navaln
On August 20, Navaln, 44, felt ill during a flight from Tomsk to Moscow. The plane landed unexpectedly in Omsk. A. Navalnas was taken to Omsk hospital in a coma. On August 22 he was transferred to the Charite Clinic in Berlin.
On September 2, German officials, based on the findings of the country’s military laboratory, announced that traces of poison from the group of nerve-paralyzing substances “Novičiok” were detected in the body of A. Navaln. On September 7, the Charite clinic announced that A. Navalnas had woken up from an artificial coma, her condition had improved.
The Kremlin denies Navaln’s poisoning accusations.
Chancellor Merkel does not rule out the possibility that the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project will be affected if Russia does not fully investigate the Navaln poisoning.
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