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1 photoAlexander Lukashenko is not giving up and has no intention of handing over power to anyone yet. Photo by EPA-Elta
Andrius Butkevičius, signatory to the Restoration of Independence Act and political reviewer, comments on the situation:
As the old masters of revolutions said, a revolution is only valid if there is a force willing to defend its conquests. In the case of Belarus, there is no such force. About 600 thousand people took to the streets, in the best of cases, prone to active actions, that is, they can attack the government not only with flowers and emoticons, in the best of cases, there are 30-50 thousand with whom something can be done.
It is well known that not all attempts to use peaceful civil protests are effective, as not only the technology of non-violent power shift has improved in the last 30 years, but also the defense techniques used by dictatorships. In this case, Lukashenko has long been planning and preparing for possible protests, as has Vladimir Putin, who established the National Guard 3.5 years ago, that is, an analogue of the gendarmerie that was still operating in the tsarist era.
But worst of all, the Belarusian people have not been able to formulate their national ideas in this way, so the people who are going to protest have no ideology or fixed goals. Of course, the complete absence of leaders also contributed, but we should talk about them separately … Today, there is only one slogan in all the noise: “batka, sal …”. But when the “boots” come out, something has to come. It is in this situation that I say that the current wave of popular protests was provoked and a much more pro-Russian candidate than Lukashenko was brought to power.
Today, three, so to speak, “leaders” of the protests can be seen in Belarus. For example, the husband of our beloved Sviatlan Cichanouskaya is a recently launched blogger in orbit who has attacked Lukashenko with overly polite statements, and until then he has successfully lived in Moscow and glorified Russian politics in Donbass and the occupation of Crimea.
Viktor Babaryka and Marija Kolesnikova with him are people who work for Gazprom, and probably no one would say that Gazprom is one of the main instruments of the Kremlin to carry out its policy in Europe.
Mr. Valery Cepkalo is a former Belarusian diplomat who has the best connections in Russia and escaped there, as soon as he came to the sanctions of A. Lukashenko, leaving his wife hostage … There are simply no other leaders. These “leaders” smell the Kremlin as clearly as possible.
The Kremlin is being built for Babaryk and currently, according to my data, the conditions under which he will resign after the approval of the new Constitution are being negotiated with Lukashenko, and for him, his family and his accumulated wealth. Security guarantees. The Kremlin will lead V. Babarykas to the new elections, M. Kolesnikova, who is already very popular today, will be by her side.
Thus, all those who are very fascinated by the Belarusian revolution may soon wonder: is the new Belarus with many industrial objects owned by Russian oligarchs the option that will benefit Lithuania? I no longer speak of Russia’s military bases in Belarus and Russia’s imminent threat to NATO borders …
If Lithuania had taken its mission to Belarus seriously, our political institutions have been functioning since 2000, helping the opposition to form as a party system and as people with a clear understanding of the mechanisms of taking power. This would help put these leaders in political orbit, create appropriate mechanisms and sources of public information, etc. And not all Lithuanian funds would be used for this, but all the power of the EU and NATO.
Regrettably, Lithuania ignored the possibility and necessity of such actions. And now, suddenly seeing the fire of some discontent, a dozen men have just made a warm-up … So we have a complete fiasco, because something like a change of government is being carefully and responsibly prepared in a state Foreign. And first the question is asked: and who will come to power with my help? If you want to put something in power, you must have mechanisms to manage that power. And since all this is not so, the Lithuanian government is doing the most stupid thing: it catches the first woman to appear and the Lithuanian film studio is making a video about “her heroic marches” …
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