Political scientist – on the situation in Belarus: even in the hands of the weakened Lukashenko – a strong trump card

Professor Tomas Janeliūnas, Institute of International Relations and Political Science, Vilnius University Delphi Day says that changes are currently being sought in Belarus through peaceful protests.

“In fact, the fact that we are not seeing very strong outbreaks of violence now shows that these riots will not lead to bloody clashes. Both the protest structures and those of the regime are trying to refrain from such direct uses of force.

Clearly, violence is perpetrated by other means. Protesters are being arrested, usually not even before protest sites or at the end of protests. The number of detainees is high, they are terrified and psychologically, but so far it is quite peaceful. This shows that we are trying to achieve a change by quite peaceful means, ”says the interlocutor.

Linas Kojala, director of the Center for Eastern European Studies, commented on the show that Lukashenko no longer has support at the moment, but much more is needed for a fundamental change as there are still strengths on Lukashenko’s side at the moment.

“Hope always exists when there are hundreds of thousands of protests, but so far de facto the situation in the country is still under Lukashenko’s control. As history shows, the political science literature often collapses when so-called elites turn against the leader, the leader. In this case, we don’t see an elite turn against Lukashenko, at least there were no clear signs. The protesters, of course, are affecting that elite, he is very aware that the leader has lost all legitimacy, that he has no support ”, says L. Kojala.

He spoke of Lukashenko’s engagement

T. Janeliūnas assures in the program that the most important thing at this moment would be to get out of the crisis, which would be possible if Lukashenko began to compromise in one way or another.

“One should probably answer the question of whose time is going now. In the current situation, there are not many clear signs of who is taking the top. I would say that time is still good for Lukashenko. First of all, It has the resources, it controls them. It has the strength and the human resources, the finances and everything else. And the opposition and the protesters don’t have those resources, so consequently, the fact that the opposition hasn’t yet Being able to take control of resources, even with minimal signs, suggests that Lukashenko has a better chance of surviving, but several things could demonstrate that break.

Probably the biggest change could be a change in the positions of the power structures, a change to opponents and protesters. Of course, a change in the position of the elite would also have a great impact. Of course, one could expect a different, slow resistance, a weakening of the regime, when strikes, attempts to financially destabilize and change the system. Of course, this would not be the achievement that the protesters are looking for, but it could be a way out of the crisis, ”says the political scientist.

What to expect from Lithuania?

When asked what Lithuania can expect, L. Kojala assured that probably nothing will change too much. Changes could perhaps be expected if the position of the western states towards Belarus were to change further.

“Our relations with Belarus have probably been difficult during this period of independence, as it relates to the Lukashenko period. We probably never talked about effective relations, they were always intertwined with the economy: Belarus needs Lithuania, Lithuania needs Belarus a little. , but those relations were limited, because that state is still a closed kingdom, closed to the European Union, NATO, etc.

So in response to what we can expect, it’s probably the same, but on an even larger scale, because Lukashenko will be isolated in any case, the West’s intentions to recharge the relationship, as we’ve seen in recent years, probably wear out significantly. This means that the opportunities for Belarus’ economic opening will also decrease, “L. Kojala said on the show.