Second party election ranking: the right-wing coalition does not deserve the expectation

From July 16 to 30, the market research and public opinion company Baltijos tyrimai conducted a survey asking the population what their second option would be in the Seimas elections. This indicator generally reveals which parties have the potential to attract additional voters.

According to the investigation, the “Freedom and Justice” party led by Remigijus Žemaitaitis has the highest “second option” ranking. 8.9 percent indicated this party as the second option. surveyed. The Union of Peasants and Greens of Lithuania (LVŽS) has a very similar result (8.6%). The Labor Party (8.2 percent) is immediately behind the “peasants”, followed by the Social Democrats led by Gintautas Paluckas (8 percent).

The first five are completed by the Lithuanian Social Democratic Labor Party chaired by Gediminas Kirkilas. 6.6% cited “social workers” as the second option and a possible alternative to the first. population of the country.

The right-wing political parties continue in the ranking: the Aušrinė Armonaitė Freedom Party (4.8%) and the Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen Liberal Movement (4.3%). In eighth place is the Center Party “Prosperity Lithuania”, which calls itself an anti-systemic force (3.5%). The Lithuanian National Christian Democratic Union (TS-LKD), which has the second result in the party rankings, is only in ninth place. Conservatives led by Gabriel Landsberg would choose 3 percent as an alternative to the first option. population.

The less attractive alternatives are the presidency of Arvydas Juozaitis of the Union of Intergenerational Solidarity – “Cohesion of Lithuania” (2.6%), the Christian Union of Rimantas Dagis (2.4%), the Polish Lithuanian Electoral Campaign – Union of Christian families (0.9%). ) and the National Association Vytautas Radžvilas (0.7%).

First elections

The ELTA news agency has previously published “Baltic Research” from July 16-30. a survey that shows which parties the population is inclined to vote in the elections to the Seimas on October 11. When evaluating the first choices of the respondents, the ranking of political parties in the leaderboard differs significantly.

At the top of the party leaderboard, LVŽS, 15.2 percent intend to vote for them. surveyed population of the country. Second are the conservatives. In July, 12.9 percent intended to vote for this party. the citizens. In the trio with 9.4 percent. with the support of the social democrats of G. Paluckas.

The survey shows that 7.4 percent. the population of the country would currently support the “workers” of Viktor Uspaskich. The leader of the second option “Freedom and Justice” occupies the fifth place in this ranking (first option). In July, 5.6 percent voted in favor of this party. the citizens. A similar proportion of the population is 5.4 percent. he claims he could vote for the Lithuanian Liberal Movement.

The remaining lots, according to the study, 5 percent. limits do not exceed: 3.2 percent. respondents say they will support Lithuania’s Polish election campaign, the Union of Christian Families, in the autumn parliamentary elections.

Behind is the Freedom Party led by Aušrinė Armonaitė (supported by 2.7 percent in July), and the “social workers” led by Gediminas Kirkilas remain stable at the 2 percent limit. In July, the party had 2 percent.

The biggest intrigue is how the fight will end between the parties to the left of the center

Experts say second-choice trends are probably the saddest for conservatives who have spent the last 8 years in opposition. And while the low second-rate rate is not new to the National Union, political scientists appear to be considering that after the October elections, the ruling majority will be molded from center-left parties. Therefore, in his opinion, it is the competition between the parties of this ideological spectrum that will create the main intrigue of the elections.

“On the right side of the center, where the Unión Patria and the Liberals are located, there is no room for further maneuvering by the parties. They pushed each other minimally. Almost none of them jump, for example, to the left of center. And in the center-left, the potential of voters is much greater than in the center-right.

However, on the other hand, there are more political parties. This is where a much more interesting struggle and competition takes place between the parties: voters thrown between possible options, the overshoot can be quite significant. For example, if it is already clear on the right side that the Union of the Fatherland is way ahead of the Liberals, then on this side the Union of the Fatherland will probably be the first. Meanwhile, the flow of matches on the left side is quite high. Therefore, the problems of the pandemic can significantly affect the election results, ”said Rasa Ališauskienė, sociologist and Director of Research for the Baltic.

On the other hand, noted the director of “Baltic Research”, despite the greater opportunities to attract electorates, there are many more threats to the political forces of the left. According to sociologists, parties with higher second-choice rates often face a problem: their constituencies are less active.

“Among voters who have a higher second-ballot rate, the electorate is consequently less active. Therefore, it can be said that the parties on the left side of the center need more efforts to use their potential,” reasoned R. Ališauskienė .

In the second round of uninominal, it will be very difficult for the conservatives

For his part, Professor Lauras Bielinis from Vytautas Magnus University (VMU), commenting on the data, said that it could already be seen as a sign that after October 11. the election will form a center-left coalition.

“This poll shows that if the same situation continues, a coalition of center-left forces is likely to form after the elections,” Bielinis told Eltai.

The fact that the Conservatives’ second-choice rating isn’t high, Bielinis believes, is a pretty serious problem for the National Union. According to him, this will make it very difficult for TS-LKD to perform well in single-member constituencies where the second round will take place.

“In single members, the second option is very important. Therefore, it will be very difficult for the conservatives in those single-member elections in which the second round will be held. In other words, in the second round, it is unlikely that people vote for the conservatives. This is a problem that the conservatives have not solved anyway, “commented L. Bielinis.

“I believe that the center-left voter will have a decisive voice in the single-member members,” the VMU professor is convinced.

See threats to “peasants”

Meanwhile, according to Rima Urbonaitė, a professor at the Mykolas Romeris University (MRU), when evaluating the results of the second option, we can talk not only about the risks faced by conservatives, but also about the ruling “peasants”. According to the political scientist, judging by how the ruling is communicated and how the trends in coronavirus infections are changing, it is presumed that the voter will not be determined to give her vote to the ruling forces on the decisive day.

“In the second round, the voter usually votes choosing a lesser evil. Therefore, a single member element can also be of utmost importance. If the ‘peasants’ make mistakes in the near future, they may have trouble fighting the social democrats. Socdemas can be more attractive, “said the MRU lecturer.

According to R. Urbonaitė, the fact that the qualification of the second option of the “peasants” and the Social Democrats is very similar cannot allow any party to stumble, and the position of the “peasants” in power is even more risky.

“The Social Democrats may seem a bit more neutral or even more attractive to voters in the second round, considering they are in the opposition,” said R. Urbonaitė.

Lastly, the Social Democrats can simply remind the voter, for example, the behavior of Ramūnas Karbauskis in Belarus, when we see how desperately ignoring the facts, he is blocking the leaders of the Lithuanian Polish election campaign – the Union of Christian Families, who clearly they are playing a double game. value policies. So it won’t be easy to walk here, as long as those valuables are important to the voter. And sometimes it can require very little self-determination, and sometimes a few voices can determine everything. Therefore, the cost of recent mistakes to “peasants” can be considerable, “said the political scientist.

In addition, R. Urbonaitė did not rule out the possibility, the spread trends of the pandemic in the country may have a significant impact. According to her, if the situation with the coronavirus worsens after all, the public can evaluate it as a result of the mistakes made by the government.

“It just came to our knowledge then. Trying to behave according to a proven algorithm, but now no one will forgive mistakes. After all, there was time to prepare,” said R. Urbonaitė.

The survey was conducted in 2020. July 16-30. During the research, 1,020 Lithuanian residents (aged 18 years and over) were interviewed through personal interviews, and the survey was conducted at 109 sampling points. The composition of the respondents corresponds to the composition of the Lithuanian population aged 18 years or over by sex, age, nationality and type of settlement. The opinion of the people surveyed reflects the opinion of the Lithuanian population aged 18 and over. The error of the research results is up to 3.1 percent.