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“This is really a very symbolic change compared to what Statistics Lithuania announced a month ago. Still, this is one of the smallest GDP contractions in the European Union (…) The fact remains unchanged: the Lithuanian economy coped better with the pandemic in the second quarter of this year and especially in the first half of this year, with its consequences for various reasons. N. Mačiulis told BNS on Monday.
On Monday, the Statistics Department released the second estimate of gross domestic product (GDP): in the second quarter, compared to the first quarter, the seasonal and working day effects of the Lithuanian economy decreased by 5.5 percent. The first estimate published in early July showed 5.1 percent. quarterly decline.
According to N. Mačiulis, the assessment of the latest expectations released on Monday also shows that the recovery continues in all sectors.
“What we saw in the second quarter of this year and held in the second quarter of this year, and we will continue to monitor a very rapid recovery, and we (the Swedbank economists – BNS) estimate that in the second quarter of next year the Lithuania’s GDP will exceed pre-crisis levels. It will be the shortest crisis in Lithuania’s history and the fastest recovery after it, “said N. Mačiulis.
Speaking of forecasts, he says that the second wave of contagion is fundamentally different from the first and now it is important not to make drastic decisions, say, to stop the economy again.
“We see the second wave in Lithuania, we see the second wave in France, Spain, but the specificity of the second wave is that it does not have humanitarian consequences like the first wave. Mortality is very close to zero, hospitalization is close to zero (…) The spread of the virus can be managed, as the experience of many countries shows, without paralyzing the economy, simply using recommendations to observe social distance, keep be careful, ”added N. Mačiulis.
According to him, adjustments in the assessment of GDP are something natural, especially considering the atypical state of the country’s economy in the spring: the temporary shutdown of the economy. According to him, it is understandable that additional information becomes available over time, allowing estimates to be adjusted.
“When the first estimate of gross domestic product is published, there is very little information available on the third month of that quarter. (…) Naturally, it is also difficult for statistics to assess how the value added generated during that quarter has changed. After all, there will be a third estimate that could push gross domestic product in either direction, ”said an economist at Swedbank.
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