The contingency plan is prepared immediately: two unexpected TS-LKD roads

The National Survey conducted by TS-LKD throughout Lithuania for several months and its results also surprised the party chairman Gabrielis Landsbergis.

A third of the Conservatives polled said they would support the idea of ​​Conservatives working with Social Democrats in the ruling coalition. Half of those surveyed supported joint work with the Liberal Movement in this context, a quarter, the Freedom Party.

Party chairman G. Landsberg said the results were taken into account.

There are also no rumors in the public sphere that TS-LKD is negotiating with the Labor Party and its leader, MEP Viktor Upaskich, on joint work before the Seimas elections. It would not be news, about 10 years ago, then-Conservative leader Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius said he could invite this party to the ruling coalition. But very soon this plan was not only abandoned, but a few years later this decision was called a mistake.

Call for caution

Lauras Bielinis, a professor and political scientist at Vytautas Magnus University (VMU), urged not to be entirely surprised by the poll conducted by the party. According to the interlocutor, it would be strange if the results of the survey were not favorable for the party itself.

“It just came to our attention then. And in fact, we have to think about how we pay attention to polls conducted by political parties, we have to look at them very carefully. Naturally, during the election campaign, those who do it will inevitably win in those polls. polls. This is a pseudo-event, which the conservatives did very well, “said political scientist L. Bielinis about the party poll.

According to the political scientist, this survey encourages talking about conservatives more than other political forces, so this is the first achievement.

In this way, your name comes to be discussed in the common field of communication. And this is very important in the context of the elections. ” Delphi he said.

Trying to catch an undecided voter

According to the interviewee, this survey and surprise with unexpected results due to joint work with the Social Democrats sends a message to an undecided voter.

“I think voters on the left and right are already divided over what to vote, they don’t interfere with each other. In this way, the conservatives are likely to target the undecided part of the electorate. (…) It sends a signal that the conservatives they can negotiate with others, with those on the left, even with the Social Democrats, if they are fit and willing to compromise with the conservatives. Here is a signal for that undecided voter who is looking for something to the right of the center, “explained L. Bielinis.

The political scientist said that a joint coalition between the Social Democrats and the Conservatives would no longer be so incredible. L. Bielinis considered that perhaps the difference between these parties is stronger within the political formations themselves. And for the voter, he says, it doesn’t change much.

“Voters are already widely divided, and there is a large mass of undecided among voters on the left and right. (…) And if it really happened that the Conservatives and the Social Democrats formed a coalition, I don’t think anything tragic will happen. Theoretically, it is understandable and natural: the coalition would be formed not on the basis of ideological names and principles, but on very clear questions of roles, tasks and objectives. By reconciling these issues, a coalition is possible. ” Delphi he said.

The political scientist said that partisan friendship must be understood by the voters of both parties.

“I don’t think the voter will look at it very critically. And even if the result were positive, they would even evaluate the opposite, as a normal conversation of political forces,” political scientist L. Bielinis shared his ideas.

Eyes on behalf of the authorities would be forced

University professor Vytautas Magnus and political scientist L. Bielinis also commented on the still silent speeches on negotiations between the Labor Party and the TS-LKD on joint work after the Seimas elections.

According to him, the Labor Party is like a political layman, suitable for everyone.

“The Labor Party and its leader V. Uspaskich are carrying out a very simple campaign: to sell this political force as a product to all the other forces at once, from the left and from the right. Let’s talk to the whole, they say, here are the keywords. And in this way they will attract a certain part of the electorate in some way, because they are not conflictive, they adapt to everything, like that lego political game, “he said.

“Therefore, the voter can treat this political structure as the minimum, the non-dangerous maximum, for which they can vote. Because they can communicate with all those who will be in the political field at that time,” the political scientist evaluated the Party Labor.

Asked if such a political maneuver would be understood by conservative voters themselves, the political scientist said that faced with the possibility of forming power, they would also close their eyes.

“I don’t think they will ask him, and if the Conservatives formed a majority and had no votes and the workers offered, I think those negotiations would take place. (…) I think that if cooperation with the Labor Party meant training of a ruling coalition, voters and party members would turn a blind eye. ” Delphi said L. Bielinis.

The interlocutor recalled that the conservatives had coalitions “with a wide variety of political forces.”

The opposition is bored

Vladas Gaidys, Director of the Vilmorus Center for Market Research and Public Opinion, speaking with Delphi he recalled a recent study on the selection of the second batch.

The latter showed that the conservative electorate is quite diverse: it would support the Liberal Movement, the Lithuanian Union of Greens and Peasants, the Freedom Party, and both Social Democratic parties.

“Of the party’s assets, there is probably a position where if you vote for someone else, you would already call him a fugitive or a traitor. And in the opinion of the voters, it is a little different,” said V. Gaidys.

He also recalled a survey conducted thirty years ago on the Baltic Way, which revealed that the drive was named as the greatest value of those events.

“Maybe I still remember this, the events in Belarus, that unity is a deficit. Why does the Seimas have such a low rating? It is extremely low because there is no screaming between them there. The people of the country really miss it,” he said. .

V. Gaidys stated that perhaps that is why the survey yielded these results.

“And now that it’s possible to work together, this is probably a highly valued feature. In other words, there is no “one or one” dichotomy. He could have been with Algirdas Brazauskas and Vytautas Landsbergis, but he is no longer like that. It may still be on the minds of the previous generation of voters, but those who were born during Independence no longer have it, ”he said.

“For many people these confrontations already seem artificial, naive,” concluded the interviewee.

V. Gaidys recalled that for the second option, the majority of Social Democratic voters would vote for the peasants, followed by the Liberal Movement, the Union of the Fatherland. So you don’t see the surprise if you start working together.

Furthermore, the struggle between peasants and conservatives is now being waged, more specifically, between Saulius Skvernelis and Ingrida Šimonytė. At the moment, I don’t see any empirical sign or indicator that this could cause harm, ”said V. Gaidys, director of Vilmorus.

Delphi remember that the first round of the parliamentary elections will take place on October 11 and the second on October 25.

On Thursday, 17 political parties with lists in multi-member districts withdrew numbers to mark them on ballots.