Germany shocked by Lithuania’s actions: won’t we regret it alone?

And the question is repeatedly asked: why has no other country in the European Union condemned Alexander Lukashenko’s regime so strongly as Lithuania, which has a population of 2.8 million?

Sociologist Pavel Lokshin, a correspondent for the daily Die Welt in Russia, stressed that Lithuanians understand Belarusians like no other and even urged: “Berlin and Brussels should better listen to what Lithuanians say.”

Without hiding sympathy for Lithuania’s attitude towards Belarus, he joked that “little Lithuania is not boxing in its own weight class.”

Germany could boldly “step into the ring” in terms of “weight class”, but it seems to have a more acceptable role as a moral evaluator calling for dialogue.

“There is no rush to raise political demands and wishes in Germany yet. Instead, all eyes are on Moscow,” noted the Deutsche Welle portal early last week.

German politicians wish Belarusian protesters perseverance

It is true that expressions of solidarity are not lacking. “The people of this proud and long-suffering country deserve our solidarity and support,” German Federal President Frank Walter Steinmeier (SPD) told the people of Belarus in a video message.

He also addressed President Lukashenko directly, urging him to “go through non-violence and dialogue.”

The European Union will press so that “there is no violence and that the rights of protesters in Belarus are respected,” promised German Chancellor Heiko Maas (SPD) during his visit to Ukraine.

And the chairman of the Bundestag’s foreign affairs commission, one of the CDU’s candidates for the country’s chancellor, Norbert Röttgen, wanted the protesting Belarusians not to lose their vigor. According to him, it is important that the European Union signals its moral support.

Furthermore, Mr Röttgen is strongly in favor of imposing sanctions on Belarusian political leaders.

Another Christian Democracy foreign policy politician, Roderich Kiesewetter, stressed the importance of being extremely careful in this critical situation and finding a “way to cooperate with Russia” so that not only the EU but also Russia complies with the requirement of the Charter. of Paris not to interfere in the internal affairs of another country. . Such, according to this German foreign policy, is the lesson of events in Ukraine.

German solidarity did not spill into the streets

But political restraint has not helped, and Moscow increasingly accuses the West of interfering. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov spoke vaguely last week about the “struggle for post-Soviet space” and said the West was trying to impose a foreign system on Belarusians that would be “beneficial” to the West.

However, this is an absurd reproach, because “it is a fundamental requirement of both the EU and the United States: the Belarusians themselves are free to decide what their future will be,” commented the Swiss historian and political scientist Andreas Rüesch in the daily Neue Züricher Zeitung.

German civil society also reacted very cautiously to the efforts to free Belarus and the brutal repression of peaceful protesters. There was no wave of solidarity that spilled through the streets, since after the assassination of black George Floyd in the United States, no one chanted slogans of support in a massive march by Belarusians who overcame fears, they did not carry portraits of Alexander Taraikovsky shot by police in Minsk.

“It is unfortunate that there are no protests in Germany, there are no demonstrations in support of Belarus, and it would have been very important for those who were demonstrating there,” a Deutschlandfunk listener on the Kontrovers radio program said Monday for the protests in Belarus.

“The uprising in Belarus. Isn’t the EU’s response too slow?” He announced the title of the show.

Germany, like the EU, is being accused of sincerely supporting the protesters and of not reacting enough to the events. Isn’t the current EU response just a token policy?

Many callers demonstrated against any intervention by Germany and the European Union as a whole. It is said that what is happening in Belarus now is a matter for the Belarusians themselves, so let them decide.

The nation could decide for itself if it had the chance

There were also those who even considered the sanctions against Belarusian politicians to constitute unauthorized interference. Like the show’s guest Andrei Hunk, a member of the Die Linke Bundestag (left), he has often approached Moscow’s position in his argument.

Elmar Brok, a Christian Democrat who is a member of the presidency of the European People’s Party, praised the current attitude of the European Union as measured and emphasized: “The EU does not interfere in the internal affairs of other countries.”

But this notion of non-interference comes from the Cold War, from the Soviet space, where it was used, recalled the green politician Marieluise Beck, who actively cooperates with the democratic opposition in Eastern Europe.

She is clearly wounded by the indifference of the Germans living in freedom towards the Belarusian struggle. “Yes, the nation would decide for itself if it had the chance. But a dictator posing with a machine gun shows that he is willing to send troops against his inhabitants. There are already shootings, thousands – in jail, hundreds of people are missing – perhaps already do not be among the living, ”explained M. Beck.

Passersby, he said, do not know if they will find themselves in the torture cellars.

In the future, we may have to beat ourselves up: we have left the Belarusians alone

It is naive to ask Mr Lukashenko to enter into a dialogue with the opposition when opposition leaders are imprisoned. It is naive to speak of a policy of non-interference from outside, when Moscow intervenes in the most active way possible, said the Eastern European expert.

“The key is in the Kremlin,” Bec said several times. – Only if Moscow is willing to allow a minimum of democracy and allow a minimum distance from that violent president, only then will we have a real chance. If Moscow continues to intervene through a hybrid war, as it does now, as it has done in Ukraine and Crimea, there is a fear that the people will be abandoned, because the violence will be too great because we have left them alone. And then we’ll talk (like about Hungary in 1956, Prague in 1968) that we leave those people alone. They are asking the EU for help because they know that it is unlikely they can do it alone. “

So the true solidarity of the European Union, according to Mr. Beck, would be to say to Putin: “If you interfere, you will feel the painful consequences.”

The biggest problem is that “the EU and the US, which collectively called themselves the West and who could use economic power, who could take decisive action and tell Russia: it is not allowed to do everything, they have divided into the last years”. The Kremlin knows this, and that weakness in the EU makes it extremely difficult to support Belarus and its people as we should. “

„V. Putin sees that weakness in the European Union. And now the people of Belarus will have to pay for this weakness of the European Union ”, summed up the politician.

Germany realizes: it has no lever in its hands

“And the role of Germany has not always been positive,” Beck said. “Nord Stream 2, the joint agreements with Russia, is exactly what allows Russia to divide the European Union.”

Stefan Cornelius, a commentator for the daily Süddeutsche Zeitung, is considering a similar direction, pointing out that “Germany does not have the leverage to make the Russian president feel the price for his decisions.”

“Germany’s most important argument is economics and investment, in Russia’s case, mainly in the field of energy. However, as usual, it is difficult to weigh the arguments: leaving Nord Stream would also result in the loss of guarantees; whoever makes too radical decisions prevents the possibility of small decisions ”, S. Cornelius looks for an excuse.

Putin knows that Merkel will not take risks

S. Cornelius should look at the current relations between Germany and Russia from an unexpected psychological angle, drawing attention to the psychology of Angela Merkel, who grew up in socialist Germany.

Faced with the security structures, he learned one of the most important lessons: “play a joke”, says the author of the Süddeutsche Zeitung.

And Putin, who came from security structures, continues to use KGB methods, only in modern ways.

So “looking at German-Russian politics these days, it’s hard to get rid of the impression that Merkel and Putin are playing an old game with each other.”

Furthermore, Berlin does not want to have to accept that the decision to escalate is always in Putin’s hands. He’s ready to break the rules and use force. Decide where the new problem will start and how it will be solved. Breaking this cycle requires a commitment to risk. However, Merkel does not like risks.