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Sociological research shows that the “peasant” electorate welcomes the Seimas elections, which may be inactive due to the second royal wave of the coronavirus, with extreme discipline. Furthermore, according to Rasa Ališauskienė, director of Baltic Research, there are reasons to believe that the “peasants”, more than the conservatives, have a greater potential for mobilization to attract followers to the ballot box party.
And while recent polls show that there are no fewer people willing to participate in the October parliamentary elections than 4 years ago, another wave of the coronavirus pandemic could significantly adjust citizens’ attitudes.
According to a survey conducted by Baltic Research from July 16 to 30 on behalf of the ELTA news agency, less than half (46%) of the country’s population intends to go to the polls 3 months before the elections to the Seimas. Meanwhile, a quarter (23%) said they would not go to the polls and a third (31%) said they had not yet decided their participation in the new parliament.
These statistics are almost identical to the data obtained in 2016. in July.
Then, 3 months before the elections, 45% were determined to cast their vote. surveyed population. 22 percent. declared that they do not promise to go to the polls and 33% that they have not yet decided to do so.
Turnout in the Seimas elections in October 2016 was 50.6 percent. However, this year, the crisis caused by the coronavirus in early spring became a reason not only to doubt whether the 2020 fall will achieve a similar turnout of voters, but also to question whether it will be possible to attract the necessary number of voters to the polls in general.
And although recent polls show that public intentions to participate in parliamentary elections are no different than in 2016. According to experts, participation in the October Seimas elections is higher than four years ago. This may be mainly influenced by the recent increase in coronavirus infections or even a possible second wave of a pandemic in Lithuania.
Therefore, according to Rasa Ališauskienė, sociologist, Baltic Research Director, the positions currently expressed by voters regarding participation in the Seimas elections may change. According to her, it is important to understand that respondents respond to questions the way they would behave on the same day of the survey.
“At the end of July, the weather is good and people’s memories are short. People probably don’t think much about the fact that there may be a slightly different situation in October – the weather is different or that there may be other difficulties, such as limited gatherings of people … It is probably not believed that there can be a setting completely different voting in the future. “Said R. Ališauskienė.
At the same time, he emphasizes that turnout in the Seimas elections is expected to be higher than in 2016. Probably not. According to the sociologist, if something does not happen in the coming months that can provide Lithuanian citizens with an exceptionally abundant trip to the polls, we would probably expect a scenario in which the Seimas elections are even less active than last time.
Rasa Ališauskienė
“If something doesn’t happen that can mobilize society, the most realistic trend would be to have less activity than more,” he said.
Thus, when overall turnout is low, parties whose sympathies are disciplined and can mobilize on Election Day despite bad weather or other inconveniences win. Voter loyalty has been repeatedly hailed as the reason why parties that did not appear on the rating tables unexpectedly turned out well on election day and why conservatives with a disciplined voter found it convenient when Lithuanian citizens were slow to vote at the polls.
The last moment has become almost a “sociological folklore.” However, this “tradition” may be over.
The situation has changed: low voter turnout benefits the ‘peasants’ rather than the ‘conservatives’
Speaking about which voting party is the most loyal, R. Ališauskienė emphasized that there would have been significant changes on this issue since the last Seimas elections. According to her, the available statistics suggest that a low turnout would probably bring the greatest benefits not to the conservatives, but now to their main opponents, the “peasants.”
“In the past, the Homeland Union could have been second or third on the rating table, but the situation changed when it was assessed whether respondents were actually going to vote. It was the conservative voters who often said they would definitely come. But now the situation has changed ”, explained the sociologist.
“Now the ‘peasant’ people are going to participate more actively, loyal voters have grown. I can’t say what it was like before 2016, but now they look even better than the conservatives seem,” said the sociologist, noting that the decline Activity in the fall can be useless for conservatives.
Name the reasons for the changes: quarantine, age of the TS-LKD electorate and rhetoric of the “peasants”
According to R. Ališauskienė, the fact that Conservatives can no longer boast of having an exceptionally disciplined voter may be related to several reasons.
First, he says, there have been changes in the ranks of the National Union electorate.
“Younger voters appeared from the National Union. And those voters are less active in voting. Meanwhile, the” peasant “voter is older and more likely to go to the polls … This is one of the factors for those that the “peasants” are ahead of the National Union in this sense, “said the head of” Baltic Research. “
At the same time, R. Ališauskienė agreed, another reason for the change in situation could be the communication of “peasants”.
In recent years, the rhetoric of Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis, Ramūnas Karbauskis and other “peasant” leaders has been clearly “anti-conservative.” The union of the fatherland presents itself as a non-constructive political force that interferes with the work of the government or is even willing to sacrifice the interests of society. This increased the feeling of resistance.
It was resistance, the scientist agreed, that may have been one of the reasons why the “peasant” electorate became perhaps the most motivated to vote. In his opinion, the opposition of the current party even remembers the times when the leader of the political right was Professor Vytautas Landsbergis and the leader of the left, Algirdas Brazauskas.
“Now there is another Landsbergis, whose opposite is no longer the Social Democrats, but the Union of Greens and Peasants of Lithuania,” he added.
Finally, another factor that may have influenced the behavior of voters is the coronavirus crisis. R. Ališauskienė warns that the pandemic, which has unbalanced the routine of society, has affected electoral trends as necessary.
If it weren’t for a pandemic, continues R. Ališauskienė, it is very likely that the “peasants” would find it extremely difficult to think of stronger achievements in the autumn elections of the Seimas.
“If it had not been for the quarantine and if everything had evolved as it had developed, the situation could have been similar to that of the Social Democrats. People like the pendulum principle. So there would have been a much stronger desire for change.
This is the most frequent trend. However, due to the quarantine, the curve turned the other way. Perhaps because of this, there is no longer a niche for the newcomer, as there is no protest vote. And in the past, before the elections, there were always more dissatisfied people looking for a new savior.
Today, the situation is different, a kind of desire to choose what has already been tried. Even if that choice is not considered very good. In other words, stability begins to prevail over the desire to change something ”, explained the sociologist.
According to R. Ališauskienė, the Liberal Movement currently has a fairly disciplined electorate. Meanwhile, the Social Democrats cannot boast of such a thing.
“Although the Social Democratic electorate is not very divided and their voters go to the polls, they are not as disciplined as the voters of the National Union or the ‘peasants’ at the moment. They have a more extensive menu.
They can fall as much on “workers” as on “peasants” or even “social workers”, summarized the director of “Baltic Research”.
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