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“It is impossible to return to normality due to the change in public attitude,” a political scientist from the Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University told BNS.
PHOTO GALLERY. Belarusian evening events in the photo gallery
“And since the government did not react to this change in public attitudes as expected, the public response will naturally be a departure from the government in every way: both in terms of political legitimacy and sense,” he added.
According to L. Jonavičius, the future scenario will depend on how power structures and society react to the growing tension in the coming days.
“Now society is exerting enough pressure, so far the power structure by the government is also responding with enough unity and also strong enough. “Until the power structures are broken and broken, then we will probably see these pretty bloody things, and it is also likely that over time, in a few days, if no such rupture occurs, the protests will lessen a bit,” he said. the political scientist.
According to him, the future of events in Belarus will largely depend on the relations of the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, with Russia. Mr Jonavičius does not rule out the possibility that Russia will use the unrest as an opportunity to strengthen its influence and increase pressure to sign agreements on the political integration of Belarus with Russia.
“You can use your interests: integration maps, integration processes, perhaps the acquisition of some Belarusian companies that are interesting to Russian players, in other words, strengthening its footprint in Belarus,” said L. Jonavičius.
Another important factor is the emergence of clear opposition leaders in Belarus.
“Svetlana Tichanovskaya is like a face, but she is not a leader; here we should also distinguish ourselves. It symbolizes change, but does not require active leadership,” says the political scientist.
“Now everyone is going against Lukashenko, but not after something,” he added.
However, according to the expert, this situation also has advantages, because spontaneous and decentralized protests are more difficult to manage.
However, according to L. Jonavičius, it is not worth waiting for a clear nuclear node for the situation in Belarus in the near future: even if Lukashenko were overthrown, the important question would still be who would take power in his place.
Even his overthrow does not create fame at all. With the disappearance of the authoritarian who controls power structures, there is no obvious alternative to the leader: what happens, who controls, who becomes the strings? “Said the political scientist.
Therefore, according to him, in the current situation there are too many unknowns to speak of clear predictions for the future.
After Sunday’s elections in Belarus, protesters clashed with militia in Minsk and other Belarusian cities, during which officers used deafening grenades and water cannons.
Opposition supporters took to the streets when a voter poll showed Lukashenko was overwhelmingly winning the election.
According to the Belarusian state news agency published Monday, Lukashenko secured his sixth term with an 80 percent gain. votes.
The authoritarian president’s main rival, S. Tichanovskaya, received 9.9 percent. votes.
Lukashenko’s opponents say the election results are rigged.
The English-speaking political novice, Ms Tichanovskaya, unexpectedly won a lot of support during the election campaign and was able to attract tens of thousands of people to her rallies.
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