In the latest match standings, there is mounting tension: the crucial turning point is yet to come

News Portal Delphi From April 20 to 30, a survey was conducted of the market research and public opinion company Spinter tyrimai.

Peasants regain support

The opposition Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats – maintains the top position in the table. 19 percent of the respondents would have voted in March, and in April this result fell from 1.5 percent to 17.4 percent.

In the match leaderboard, the only change that exceeded the margin of error (3.1%) was the increase in the Union of Peasants and Greens in Lithuania.

Second, the ruling Union of Peasants and Greens of Lithuania is strengthening its positions. In March, their result was in the single digits: 9.5 percent of the respondents would have chosen this party in the elections. In April, this result improved: 12.7% would already trust their vote to this party. surveyed

In third place on the table is also the Social Democratic Party of Lithuania (LSDP) working in the opposition. This party has received 7.7 percent support since March. Respondents improved their positions: In April, support for the party increased to 9 percent.

In fourth place is the Liberal Movement. In the voters’ eyes, the party has also strengthened positions since March. In March, this party would have received the support of 4.6 percent. Respondents In April, this number exceeded the required 5 percent – 5.6 percent.

5 percent the posters would not be exceeded

Only the four parties mentioned above would collect the 5 percent required for the list of a political party, the others would not enter the Seimas if the elections were held next Sunday.

Behind the board, the Labor Party would remain first. Its result is quite stable: in March, the party received 4.1 percent support. The number of respondents did not change much in April: it increased to 4.2 percent.

The Polish Lithuanian election campaign – The Union of Christian Families (LLRA-KŠS) continues. This party strengthened its position during the month: 3.2 percent of voters would have supported it in March and in April it grew slightly, to 3.9 percent.

The Freedom Party would also be left behind, and its support has been quite scattered since March. In March, the party would have been supported by 4.1 percent of the respondents, in April this number fell to 2.8 percent.

At the bottom of the table is the Lithuanian Social Democratic Labor Party (LSDDP). His result has not changed much since the last survey. During the survey carried out in March, 2.3 percent of the respondents would have voted for this party, in April this number was further reduced to 2.1 percent.

The results of the study present the results of parties and political movements that gathered more than 2 percent. respondents’ responses. The parties and political movements that obtained the lowest percentages are summarized in the line “Other party”, 8.1 percent of the respondents voted for this part.

17 percent of respondents did not know why to vote, and 17.2 percent did not know or did not respond.

Social Democrats are getting stronger

Ignas Zokas, head of research at Sprinter, sociologist Delphi He said the most significant change in the match leaderboard was the strengthening of the LVŽS positions.

“Frequent research shows that these significant changes do not occur every month. And this time, there is. Therefore, it can be said that LVŽS’s position is strengthening. Its rating increased statistically significantly. Gradually, there is very There is little visible tendency for the Social Democrats to strengthen as the third place in the classification table. The union of the homeland remains at a very similar level, the qualification has decreased a little, but within the limits of error, “evaluated the results of the test.

And he added that at this moment it can really be said that the ruling party is well valued, the attitude is positive, there is a visible strengthening of political power.

I. Zokas also named the voter segments. And it conveyed the message from LVS, its biggest competitors, LSDP.

“The trends are fairly stable: Conservatives have the most support in cities, the youngest age group and the elderly. There is a drop in support in the middle-aged group. LVŽS and LSDP their constituency is in cities medians, district centers, rural areas. The growing position of the LSDP should be the greatest threat to the LVŽS, because the electorate practically does not cross the Union of the Fatherland, “he said.

Spinter’s head of research added that the Liberal Movement is generally supported by a working age rather than an entirely young voter. The outcome of the Labor Party has decreased somewhat, but a clear leader of this political force can still allow these positions to strengthen.

The “Order and Justice” party is no longer on this ranking list, it did not raise 2 percent.

“His rating is completely in the basement. It is quite difficult to talk about the future of this party because the leaders have also separated. It is probably no longer possible for voters to identify that party, it is not very clear who represents that party.” . Delphi I said. Zokas.

You may have to answer unpleasant questions

General Jonas Zemaitis Lithuanian Military Academy Principal Investigator Professor, Political Scientist Jūratė Novagrockienė Delphi He said the increase in LVŽS ratings is related to the daily visibility of its representative. Furthermore, by approving the quarantine conditions introduced by the government, voters support the government itself, the political scientist said.

“Undoubtedly, the fact that they are the peasants with their Government, with the majority of their Seimas, initiates all the measures related to the repression of the pandemic in Lithuania, as well as to the solution of economic problems. It is normal that they are visible in all the time. (…) The whole situation is evaluated normally. But seeing the fact that in Lithuania all the rules and recommendations are followed with enough solidarity, I think that the support of the government measures could have contributed to the increase of the qualification ”, he considered.

Political scientist J. Novagrockienė hinted that the ruling majority’s plans regarding assistance to socially vulnerable groups may also have had an impact. Oh, and the opposition doesn’t really have to criticize government decisions.

“The third side, and the opposition had no voice. One thing is that it is divided and the other is that it is being silenced. It is not so well heard, now the Social Democrats have separated. I have said many times before that the Social Democrats get Those votes for nothing because they do nothing: nobody feeds them too much, sometimes they offer from one side, but not always to the right. There is also a reason why the Government and the ruling majority are the first now, “said the expert. in politics.

Delphi According to the interlocutor, it is still difficult to say whether the ruling majority and the government will be able to focus only on current affairs until the elections. If it is not necessary to explain the mistakes made during this period of the Seimas.

“First of all, these evaluations are quarantined. And it will all depend on how the economic problems are solved. On the other hand, I do not know how much all the problems caused by the peasants, including the teachers’ strike, will be forgotten. It is difficult to say if he will remember if that political memory of the voters will be really strong, if the present time will darken and if the current problems will be handled well. Delphi J. Novagrockienė shared his ideas.

When asked if it was realistic that parties that had crossed the 5 percent cartel would perform better in the upcoming Seimas elections, the political scientist recalled that another player would certainly appear: LLRA-KŠS.

“Without a doubt, the conservatives will take their part, only perhaps they should allow Ingrid Šimonytė to speak more on the front line, on economic issues. We must not forget the fifth player: the Polish electoral campaign,” he said.

“We just realized that it was unclear how those votes would come together.” Now all parties have lost public space, it is very difficult for them to express themselves. As public space is overshadowed by government ” Delphi said political scientist J. Novagrockienė.

The turning point is yet to come

Delphi Vladas Gaidis, head of Vilmorus Center for Market Research and Public Opinion, asked why LV®S ratings were increasing. The sociologist said that the first phase of this coronavirus crisis, which is very well received by voters, has not yet ended.

“This whole story has two stages: the first stage, when people sit at home. (…) This is a period such that the sum itself is not bad, it is so anecdotal. (…) There is something even unifying, almost the Baltic way in quarantined conditions ”, V. Gaidys spoke about the first stage of this crisis.

But the second will be much sadder and will change the positions of society.

“It just came to our attention then. There will be a second stage, because it can’t be that people don’t work for long, resources will run out someday. And then the anger will start on who is and who isn’t. Then the situation will be very painful and there, no matter what the rulers do, things will be bad. I’m not sure if the rulers will be able to break through at that stage, it’s almost impossible. ” Delphi said the sociologist.

According to V. Gaidis, this period will be adequate for the opposition to appear.

“It may be an opportunity for the opposition to rise up, and then it will be easy for them to speak. And the money manager will have a hard time talking to him.” No other event is more terrible and there is no need, it is enough to end to quarantine and money, “he said.

V. Gaidys stated that the moment of the breakup is still waiting.

“These two months are the best and most fun in many years. And the turning point is yet to come. No problem now, most people are currently satisfied with the quarantine, “said sociologist Delfi.

“My feeling is that you’ve been through the most beautiful period and now you’re going to have a psychologically unpleasant moment,” interviewer V. Gaidys predicted.

Public opinion and market research company Spinter tyrimai conducted a public opinion poll from April 20 to 30, 2020, commissioned by the Delfi news portal. The study included residents ages 18 to 75.

Combined survey method used: 50 percent. by telephone survey, 50 percent. Internet In the case of a telephone interview, the interview is conducted by a professional interviewer. Carry out a conversation with the respondent according to the prepared questions, recording the answers in a questionnaire. In the online survey, the respondent is sent a link to the survey, which the respondent independently completes at a time convenient for him / her. The link is unique, that is, the questionnaire cannot be completed more than once.
The study surveyed 1,011 respondents. The distribution of study participants by gender, age and place of residence is proportional to the distribution of the population in Lithuania.

The error of the research results is 3.1%.